Pre-close View

Late extension, meet no extension.

Bias-up is bias-up. Although the bias-up target was met before the bias timing window, it wasn”t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. That”s still a bias-up environment, but not with any higher target requiring a test.

That paragraph applies equally to this morning as to this afternoon. One separate point, which is different: This morning”s bias-up environment did eventually trend higher through its bias-up target. This afternoon”s bias-up environment did not.

Not trending higher this morning wouldn”t have had any specific consequence. Not trending higher this afternoon does, this being a session that has otherwise trended higher..

The 2106.25 bias-up target was met just before the 1:20 bias timing window, eventually reacting down to 2102.75. Just probing under 2104.00 already suggests that momentum is reversing down. The near-term objective is to test 2100.00 as support. 

There”s no requirement to trend down substantially, but late trending on Fridays rarely encounters counter-trend opposition. By the same token, expirations can be a wild card, so resuming the rally could tick higher relentlessly anyway.

Room for noise under this morning”s 2081.75 bias-down target down to 2077.75 was tested, retested, and re-retested. Twice. That effort defined the noon hour, and the noon hour defined it, as the noon hour”s exit rallied 7 points to 2084.00.

2084.00 has defined the afternoon since then. Dips back into the noon hour”s range have repeatedly recovered from 2079.50, and reversed back down.

The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, so entering the final hour even higher would have meant buyers were gaining traction. That didn”t happen. The 3:10-3:20 window can serve by proxy, but that”s lapsing and 2084.00 resistance is still holding.

With buyers having failed an attempt at breaking higher, there is vulnerability to probing fresh session lows down to 2074.75. Vulnerability, not a requirement, as still ranging within the bias environment”s range makes the balance of the session less likely to trend.

One last opportunity to suggest the consolidation of yesterday”s surge is ending would be to close above this morning”s 2089.50 high. Meanwhile,

No more patience, indeed.

FOMC wasn”t greeted from a position of strength, but it was bouncing from a test of 2053.25 support. The news triggered a surge to 2081.25, and that”s where my first buy signal could be calculated.

Each asterisk on the accompanying chart identifies the buy signal”s target. Notice how the market increases its daring with each one — reacting down on the first target”s first tick (1), probing the next target for 2 minutes before retracing the signal entirely (2), and after a third fresh high formed a “close-quarters double top” (3), the next target was acknowledged only momentarily (4) on the way to the overall pattern”s maximum potential (5).

(1) 2076.25 – 2082.50 — 6.25 points

(2) 2081.25 – 2085.25 — 4 points

(3) 2085.75 – 2087.25 — pullback limit violated

(4) 2087.50 – 2095.50 — 8 points

(5) extended another 4 points to 2099.75

RSIs were borderline overbought at the high. At the low, too. In this volatility and range, only clearer probes would create the requirement for a retest. Regardless, don”t forget that usually any post-FOMC trending will have been retraced within a week.

The noon hour”s counter-trend bounce back above 2060.25 fulfilled its 2062.50-2063.50 target. And then extend higher.

Still testing the afternoon”s 2065.25 bias-up signal at 1:20 invoked the grace period, but it was still being tested at 1:30 to avoid triggering.

The bias-up signal was probed by a surge up to 2069.00. Reacting down to 2063.50 through the 2:30 enabled the 2065.25 bias-up signal to define the bias environment”s upper-end.

Now the final hour approaches. The “session-long decline” has missed at least one timing window for probing under the prior timing window”s low. That should get underway pretty quickly to probe under the prior timing window”s low before. 

Back above 2066.25 would start to suggest the session-long decline setup was invalidated.

The rally gains traction.

Being a no-bias environment still allowed room to the 2070.25 bias-up signal. A buy signal that triggered at 2066.00 got there, and then extended higher into the final hour to 2073.50

That”s the minimum objective for this signal, with potential also to 2074.75.

The rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high, and then entering the final hour above the bias environment”s high. Traction isn”t a timing signal — it doesn”t immunize the balance of the session from dipping. But it does suggest that a reaction down would be recovered.

Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs suggest the same. The rally is entrenched, if a reaction down must recover.

Often, entrenched trending will take advantage of that safety to retrace. This entrenched rally is also vulnerable to a retracement, now being 7-1/2 points above the 2066.00 buy signal, testing its 2073.50 target, and having oversold RSIs.

But that”s not a sell signal, and a fresh high at 2074.75 remains possible. Not reversing down from there could be squeezed sharply higher through the close.