Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
2366.00 had supported a narrowly ranging overnight session  until just before the open. Post-open action ranged narrowly around 2366.00, Holding the 2364.00 bias-down signal and putting into play an offsetting test of its 2372.25 bias-up signal didn’t prevent the noon hour from breaking sharply lower to 2357.50. The actual selling was done quickly, but the balance of the session only ranged choppily back up to 2364.00. The 2372.25 objective became “unfinished business above.”

Overnight action’s new info…
No time was wasted recovering the balance of Tuesday’s noon hour drop back up to the morning’s 2366.00 highs. Firming another couple of points then surged into President Trump’s speech, fulfilling the 2372.25 objective left outstanding that morning. Its reaction back down to 2366.00 bounced around into Europe’s opens, where another upleg has extended to 2375.50. The complexity qualifies as a “new Globex trend extreme.”

If, then…
Tuesday’s negative close wasn’t necessarily bearish, and that vacuum was “ineffectual pessimism,” which the overnight rally to new highs suggests. So, like last week’s intraday declines, another singular intraday decline has been recovered entirely. But notice the slightly longer delay in its recovery. That’s two concerns of the ongoing rally, the other being yesterday’s failure to confirm Monday’s breakout. And a third concern, that last night’s rally is fulfilling the 2372.25-2373.75 objective (and yesterday morning’s bias objective). Gapping up would help to maintain the rally’s momentum. Leaving the “new Globex trend extreme” outstanding would create a new upside attraction to help rescue a multi-session pullback. The most bearish scenario this morning would open back down within prior intraday action under 2371.00 to avoid a gap up, and retest the overnight high before reversing down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2373.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2372.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2368.25 would be likely to trigger the 2366.75 bias-up signal.  .

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market Tour .  quick housekeeping items,  item number one I apologize for the late notice or actually lack of notice,  but I am not going to be available this morning through noon as you can see from the message on the screen.  it is totally unforeseen so good I’m sure if so I will be checking in I will actually mostly have the market in front of me and the chart room and be updating the blog but I’ll be doing it remotely.  so that’s item number one and item number to is due to the Amazon outage yesterday the market rap recording took quite a while to upload but you probably already know that it’s become available if you kept checking into the evening.

now onto the market,  the market with yesterday was left with a negative close after a singularly located Newtown or plunge sliding aggressively into a running correction exiting it aggressively Crossing briefly never-the-less were tracing back to the upper quadrant of the running correction and then holding through the afternoon probably holding because of anxiousness paralyzing the market ahead of Trumps overnight speech which was actually anticipated pretty warmly and then reacted to pretty warmly. yesterday morning’s Firestone signal was tested at 2364 held its test to put into play an offsetting test of 23 7225 that didn’t prevent the new that are plunge but did a track price higher after the ordering the president speech and then picked it actually a couple of ticks piercing it and then creating a trading range back down to 236600.

just ahead of Europe’s opens the market began forming again Dad a new highs testing not just 23 7225 lower end of the next are active but also its upper end at 2373 75.  so there’s no unfinished business above and closing above 2372 74 would put into play the next tire objective 241800.  by the same token testing and holding 2372 74 closing under them or that range today would represent another failure to extend the rally.  now that’s not necessarily going to be as simple as what I just described but there’s gaps up possible that would create unfinished business above that could help to rescue a pulled back if that Gap up were immediately rejected or somewhere rejected today the new glove ex-friend extreme that’s been created here overnight could be left outstanding that would help to rescue a rally or rescue sorry from a pulled back but here’s what it comes down to as we look at the chart without the overnight and we know we been to 2375 50 up here opening back under prior intraday has which is 23 7075 just avoided a book that is beyond any prior intraday High and then rally or somewhere following that open get around to the other night I neutralize that new club beckstrand extreme and then reversed down that’s the most barish scenario possible and the reversal down could be pretty abrupt at this stage because we really don’t have a lot of momentum for example I criticized momentum yesterday because of Tuesday’s failure to confirm Monday’s Breakout.

so the question is whether this is a rally trying to reveal itself or if it’s a rally that is ending it’s upside momentum and satisfying it’s upside objectives well it declined creates new signals that it’s prior sponsorship is being replaced. as for this morning let’s get back to the overnight charge all of that could be if the Gap but just extends and it it extends and that’s really the alternative scenario there is no bullet scenario that backs and Phyls in this pattern maybe one which is a little dependent on the open and I can write about that after the open but I update the blog because again I won’t be available in the chart-room not with the voice-over narrative that I’ll be I believe at that time available to certainly type messages of relevance and I thank you for your patience in that before I return at noon.

okay real quickly real quickly on to other coverage so the Aussie threatening to trigger the cell signal it’s been it’s been trying to support it at 7665 the pound already plenty of signs of weakness but not really exploiting the not really explaining the signs of weakness year so much as twenty covering their having a little difficulty getting up and then there’s the pound breaking lower let’s go to the Looney also breaking lower and a lower close today would confirm yesterday break out it doesn’t matter how deep yesterday’s drop was a second consecutive lower clothes would create the requirement for at least a third eventually close and then the Euro which came back to its own support this data slow day so come back to the silver week or overnight and it is under yesterday’s low under 18 3332 probing under 18 3332 closing under it would be a big problem for extending the rally this week 18 minute gold also drifting and threatening to close under the Gap first of all back to Fridays break or Thursdays break out clothes that was filled yesterday it’s testing that range testing it where to buy 61.8% 6184 Trace myths about 4750 and it’s down to 40 to 50 or has been there’s an eventual thoroughly Stavento third Tire close outstanding hidden gold in their hero breaking back under it supports or actually has been behaving as support surely not extending yesterday’s intraday rally had only pierced belly pierced Monday’s high following Tuesday’s on Friday but overnight that’s giving away anything to the upside is a rogue corrective a Rugby 2 or corrective balance whatever back on the 151 11 for vs. momentum down crude oil another opportunity to break free from the range that was recovered into the clothes or before the close actually neutralizing the upside attraction that have been created back to Monday’s close not necessarily exploiting that overnight CIA reports today by the way and then natural gas reports Tomorrow there’s room too expensive to 286 again only as a temporary corrective leg because there is unfinished business any questions I’ll answer them and I will be I believe in a position to type a or type guidance during the open but I won’t be available by voice on till noon and then ongoing from there

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s 2366.00 bias-up signal might have triggered but for blips-down that were triggered by two pessimistic headlines. It was recovered coming out of the noon hour anyway, and its 2171.50 bias-up target was met to within 3 ticks during Monday’s final minutes. Sunday night’s 2370.00 “new Globex trend extreme” was also neutralized, while potential up to 2372.00-2374.00 was only attacked. In fact, it was shunned — the close reacted down to 2368.00, and the Globex open slid to 2365.50. But Monday’s new high close still qualifies as a breakout. .

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open’s slide down to 2365.50 quickly reacted back above 2366.00, which has held as support through the night, and 2368.50 has held as resistance. The narrow range’s intent on maintaining itself was just tested by TGT’s earnings miss, which has affected the stock hard, but S&Ps haven’t acknowledged it in any meaningful way.

If, then…
A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm Monday’s breakout, requiring at least an eventual third higher close. Closing above 2372.00-2374.00 would also indicate extending the rally to 2418.00. Of course, there’s no assurance of trending either way ahead of tonight’s speech by President Trump. Trending may be attempted, whether from this morning’s influential econ calendar items or month-end positioning. Until proved otherwise, I’ll assume trending attempts will be brief, regardless of their degree. This makes yesterday’s breakout difficult to confirm, or to reject.
— Reversing down Tuesday could extend into a multi-session decline, without yet proving the rally had ended, although reversing down after probing a fresh high wouldn’t be bullish.
— Gapping down but not extending down through the open could still spend the day rallying back to unchanged without yet proving the rally was extending — and without confirming the breakout.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2373.75 would be likely to trigger the 2372.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2368.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2366.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2364.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2361.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to her a question that we should always have him we know that there’s an event coming is what sort of impact it might be having on price impact or actually influenced ahead of the event impact potentially afterward a lot of that answer depends on how the event is structured does so in this case of course there’s a state of the union type of address don’t call it that it’s not appropriate the first term of the new president in any case trial balloons have been floated or different things have been said publicly not that anything even outside of the context of the State of the Union Address has been written in stone anyway but the point is that the market has shown us that is interested in reacting to specific news in specific ways not the least of which or at least the most recent of which was yesterday morning when the when the open was seemingly on its way to triggering buy a supper at least one position too but kept getting hit with some headlines that we can try to tonight’s speech that might be more solidified to the degree that stuff is it any case yesterday left no unfinished business about 2366 his biceps ago was not trigger nevertheless it’s 23 7150 bicep Target was neutralized me to get to within three chicks the afternoon to buy a sub 66224 was not triggered and wasn’t exceeded until after the by sometime and had to go to Lansing what is that oh and I’m sorry the new blowback Sprint extremes that had preceded yesterday’s open were neutralized so there is no unfinished business above there is room for noise that no nothing requires being that but has likelihood of being there any way up to 72 74 20372 2523 7375 will that be done it we’ve got nothing going on overnight little to speak of overnight other than it’s truly relevant nothing’s going on overnight 6668 25 6850 really to finding the range the overnight range interesting late after yesterday I had already satisfied or within minutes of satisfying its objective to the degree that I could at least be neutralized the pullback limit was violated pull back what was violated close only 68 was touched post clothes into the glove box open we got down to roll of exported 6475 popped back up above 66 wishes since all the support so clearly there’s something about 6668 25 that has extended of persisted beyond our utility other guess the morning and afternoon as the bias of seagulls so any use that as a gauge to identify whether buyer’s or seller’s or maybe bucking the trend or lack thereof overnight things to discern from the clothes I’m a really today’s trading plan attached to this recording or later in the day but we also as a day shapes up but we also have potential for if there’s going to be training it oughta be early but it’s going to be difficult to Trend with the news that’s coming after the clothes other than any drug reactions to headlines or maybe something gets going he just has an example Target missed on earnings that’s so it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be yesterday after neutralizing this Friday so it doesn’t look like extended into becoming a April April as far as the front-month there is about a $0.06 premium between April and May so we’re looking for about 18 70-72 let’s go 1875 the next time jective on Silver assuming similarly to Gold that yesterday’s rejected rally was it really wasn’t actually rejected so that remains intact long but yesterday didn’t actually not extending down overnight crude oil still on the Range so we gotta close either way let alone confirmed by the second consecutive session but not still overlapping 5425 5430 as all upsides happen not still over laughing if it’s a 53 then at least 50 to 5358 as has been the case do we get a break by the way there’s just so much amazing I mean it sort of thing it is amazing happens that those narrow range of persist for so long but that’s the case of crude oil hot natural gas and room all the way up to 286 while still being likely to reverse down to retest last Tuesday night’s overnight lows I didn’t get all the way up there but we get down yesterday does fluctuate it sideways at the Loews at the Lowe’s as I said on Wednesday that’s not a bullish pattern that was not a bullish pattern intraday it didn’t matter that it launched to that rally try to launch from it it was doomed to failure from whatever level so now we’re still looking for now we’re still looking for that retest it last Tuesday night to Lowe’s and here’s sort of a French low overnight to maybe get it going all right as usual any questions please good luck today

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Another steep, deep, singular dive was recovered entirely, making at least four for the holiday-shortened week. Friday’s iteration was an overnight slight, which didn’t really get underway until two hours after Europe’s opens. But its 2349.50 pre-open low began retracing into the 2352.25 open, and recovered 8 points to 2360.25 by noon. That was still a 2-point deficit from Thursday’s close, which is how it remained until the moment the 3:10-3:20 position-squaring window lapsed. An 8-point surge attacked 2366.00 into the close, under prior highs, but a new high close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open printed 2362.50 and then spiked up to a new high at 2368.50. Drifting flat-to-higher into Europe’s opens produced two touches of 2370.00, forming a “new Globex trend extreme.” Their interim test of 2366.00 as support is being probed now down to 2363.50.

If, then…
Surely by now you’ve watched or attended the Saturday Review recording (“Ruh-roh“). So, you know already of the relative under-performance appearing among the major indexes. And you know of the significant nearby attraction / resistance at 2372.25-2373.75. It doesn’t require being tested, but last night’s new Globex trend extreme at 2370.00 does. Yet, the same overnight high that ensures eventually probing higher intraday, is also creating a setup that can launch a multi-session decline. In combination with probing fresh highs overnight, greeting the cash session sufficiently back under last night’s 2362.50 opening low would be the trigger. Otherwise, 2372.00-2374.00 lies straight ahead.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2360.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2358.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2367.50 would be likely to trigger the 2366.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2363.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to her it is a full-length we coming off of a holiday shortened week which was the week following expiration oh what else lots of stuff going on interesting way more stuff going on overnight or not going on not directly but leaving but I would say indelibly here’s what I hear is what that points to we talked about going to go through it again but watch the Saturday review if you haven’t essentially last week’s trading range which began by gapping up surging and then both the alternating between dips and complete recovery dips complete recovery is eventual recovery but singular isolated substantial or steep deep dips all recovered including Friday’s dip down to the lower end that for the by the grace of a late brake higher late after the proxy window has closed elapsed got a late surge on a Friday afternoon always have to be prepared for that but nothing could be less predictive and it didn’t produce a new trend I approve of any prior intraday High did produce a new trend I close but being within the range it doesn’t qualify as requiring any higher close to follow nevertheless all of those dips and if not that then at least the lack of reversing down suggest that more than wants to hire is it going to extend Tire Pro choir the answer’s probably proba instead of extend the reasoning is Henry the template that description that play basically is in the Saturday review again if you ever watch that why we’ve got to prepare before reversing down substantially more likely to and now we are so let’s pick it up there because last night’s open spiked up to a new high that’s not delayed but it is a delay or anything or follow through it just did and then get back into under Price Rite to a fresh I recover do a fresher 2370 another dip back under prize but look at the look at what we’ve got now we’ve got a new high pulled back tire I pulled back that’s complexity right away we’ve already got a new Globex Trend extreme that requires being tested intraday the recovery to test it again last night into and out of your UPS opens that’s not the retest intraday retest as what we’re looking for but there’s any case that creates an interim low that’s being probed here the interloping a test of 2366 that happens to be this morning to buy a sub signal it’s being probed and his 6350 not yet back to the logo of the first reaction down from 6 to 8:50 which itself is not yet back to the love the open but here’s the setup since we do have new overnight highs probe above the prior sessions hi at least not necessarily a new trend I but just a probe above any priors sessions High if the open is unable to maintain that and not just fluctuate not just creepy open within the overnight range with back under the overnight low back under the overnight low not the pre-opening we could dip even deeper but that’s not what we’re talking about the overnight low is 6250 creepy up and back under 6250 and we start suspecting or if we know that we’re ahead of the opening up likely to be open under 16 250 we know that we are potentially going to reject the overnight High not just 6250 but back under a prior low as well would be kind of the icing on the cake nail in the coffin whichever that’s essentially 2360 it doesn’t have to be a complete retracement back to and through the proxy Windows origin member 310-320 was exited back at around 5723 5750 would be gravy or an ale or whichever gravy on the closet now so better to 2360 is really pretty big Line in the Sand get food after the opening 15 minutes about till he will have a great deal of confidence that momentum is reversing down as I said we’ve been trending into the high so each successive session were printing a fresh eye which hasn’t been the case wasn’t the case last week but nevertheless something of import would be happening and so at least for the sake of getting back down to lower price we have a high degree of confidence that 40 to 50 for instance so pretty interesting set-up at the open if that doesn’t happen if the open isn’t retracing that deeply then it’s likely to recover or extend to hire that is to probe we discussed in the Saturday review being the next traction 7225 at 7375 cause 72-74 whether it is this morning’s bias up Target 7150 have to leave the older guy has a new globe extreme extreme 70 so we’ve got attractions above that attractions or adjectives adjectives in the case of the new Globex Trend extreme that’s a price point that needs to be met the other stuff there’s attraction so long as momentum remains and play intact but if we’re going to go up then we can’t go down that’s not always the case but we can still recover and even be likely to be open alright no II confirm closer to French’s the uptrend 70 sleep a lot of resistance to 1259 was being fulfilled that was the objective of that break out so pull back is if not likely at least very possible and there is at least hesitation here Sunday night into Monday morning but extend higher whether it’s after filling we get back to Thursday’s close around 12:51 or something more substantial just to really refuel and 1273 5074 would be the next likely objective Silvers actually firmer what is maybe a confirm break out it’s not optimal because Thursday’s new High clothes above the multi-session range was in a session that was raging around the multi-session ranges Pryor High and whatever to that close was almost incidental it certainly wasn’t about the morning so I so we can give the phone to the benefit of the doubt at least it wanting to prove higher and if it does extend high-rating 70-72 is it Long Pond you know that whatever is going on here it is leaving unfinished business below lower price and not to mention that it’s coming up with an unstable base as did the last rally which me which was unstable base form goodbye only attacking prior Lowe’s stopping optimistically short more than a blue Kotori bounds but a pretty big one at that so I can’t sell this strength I would sell a break under these prior Lowe’s the right now we’re monitoring for is whether there’s gonna be a second consecutive are close confirming Fridays breakout coils still in the rain that’s really all we can give it no credibility for anything else that’s the Sara Lee in the Natural Gas anyway because eventually it has to retest last Tuesday night so that it was room up 286 in the interim but doesn’t look like we’re already and presumably are we testing last Tuesday night

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s post-open 14-point slide was the largest drop of the holiday-shortened week, so far.  So was its recovery. The first two sessions were bullish mornings, gapping up and extending through the bias-up parameters Tuesday, holding a test of the bias-down signal on Wednesday. Thursday’s open traveled from the bias-up target to the bias-down signal, expending the most selling pressure of all, and still recovered nearly the entire drop. The session finished by dipping back down to Wednesday’s 2361.00 close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s recovery never resumed as price drifted 2-3 points flat-to-lower. Europe’s opens were greeted at 2359.00, and eventually bounced a couple of points. But only briefly, as a two-hour 9-point slide is probing nearly 2 points under yesterday morning’s 2353.00 low.

If, then…
Is this overnight drop temporary like the week’s earlier four? Of course, their recoveries have been temporary, too. And the last drop isn’t yet retraced entirely. But the pattern has been range bound, anyway. This morning’s bias-down target is already being tested, and its break would be credible for testing the prior week’s “lower prior highs” as much as 10 points deeper. Avoiding a breakdown yet again would target at least unchanged, if not also fresh highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2350.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2352.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal, and next targeting 2347.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2355.00 would be likely to trigger the 2357.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sliding overnight into Wednesday’s open had threatened to break under Tuesday afternoon’s 2357.50 lows. Its test held, and so did the morning’s 2356.75 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2366.00 bias-up signal. The morning’s rally stopped ticks short of overnight highs at 2363.25. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. Choppily, as in absorbing a 6-point plunge in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release, which might have derailed an attempt to resume the morning’s recovery. The outstanding 2366.00 became “unfinished business above.”.

Overnight action’s new info…
Of the possible scenarios I described yesterday for actual action overnight, none of them played out. Not that action developed in any other way. Instead, nothing has actually happened, at all. At least, not until very recently. An ongoing 1-point wide range greeted Europe’s opens, where firming has extended to pierce yesterday morning’s high up to Tuesday night’s 2363.75 high.

If, then…
Although none has played out, the possible scenarios for overnight action are still viable. The likeliest path remains testing 2366.00, and then reversing down from its test. Econ reports and Fed speakers scheduled before the open are capable catalysts for triggering a gap down — no less capable than was yesterday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, whose steep immediate impact makes it all the more a failure for its complete retracement. So, unless the open is gapping down under yesterday’s lows, I’ll be reluctant to short prior to probing fresh highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2364.75 would be likely to trigger the 2362.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2358.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.