Pre-market Tour

The overnight recovery back up to 2104.00 has held, at least for a reaction down attacking 2098.00. Fitting. An opening test of 2098.00 would be predictive of the 2100.50 bias-down signal’s likelihood for triggering. But the bounce has reacted up to 2103.00. And recovering another couple of points through the open would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Either way, even without the preliminary indication, 10 points either way is possible before this afternoon’s FOMC statement.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Retracing the overnight bounce to 2129.50 has tested and retested the 2123.00 area. Holding under 2124.25-2125.00 or quickly rejecting a probe above it would keep alive the likelihood for breaking under yesterday’s 2119.00-2120.00 lows, and to at least retest Friday’s 2112.50 low. Otherwise, recovering 2124.25-2125.00 would make Friday’s 2135.25 high become a bigger attraction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight bounce into positive territory up to 2130.50 had been retraced to almost 2124.00. Reacting up to 2129.00 has corrected that dip, while narrowing the range around 2126.75 — which is essentially the 61.8% retracement of Friday afternoon’s plunge. Recovering it through the open, or not, would suggest whether the next downleg had begun.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight drop back up yesterday’s 2127.75 cash session close had been completely recovered. A blip-up touched yesterday’s 2129.50 again, and reacted down to within 1 tick of 2123.25. Holding or not holding a test of 2123.25 through the open would make the 2125.25 bias-down signal less or more likely to trigger, respectively. Simply avoiding negative territory would make a short-squeeze likelier, too. Otherwise, there is plenty of downside potential into and out of the weekend.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Ineffectual pessimism, no more. The choppy, wide 2130.00-2139.00 range has extended higher. Probing yesterday’s high has neutralized the requirement to retest it. has probed the 2143.00 bias-up target by 3 ticks. Maintaining the open’s break above yesterday’s highs would be likely to trend higher this morning, with 2148.00 and higher eventually targeted. Not maintaining the probe above yesterday’s high could trigger the domino effect pointing down sharply.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.