Pre-market Tour

The bounce off of 2126.25 extended up to 2132.75 before dipping again, now testing 2128.50. That’s a 61.8% retracement, so a bounce from here could reflect sentiment shifting upward for the morning. Otherwise, there’s not much room or time to retest the overnight low, and then to reject it, without getting sucked into another morning drop.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The 2149.75 overnight high’s reaction down to unchanged had bounced off of 2144.00. That reached 2147.25 before reversing down to a fresh overnight low at 2143.00. And not only a fresh overnight low, but also testing yesterday’s late last relative low.

Isolating the probe above yesterday’s highs to the overnight action would be a big first step to trending down sharply intraday. Despite all of the bullish elements I describe in this morning’s Tour, that could make the difference today between extending the recovery, and resuming the decline.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The reaction down from 2147.50 has touched 2143.00. Exiting the opening 15 minutes any lower would make the 2140.75 bias-up target less likely to maintain its recovery, too. And that could lead quickly to an about-face of the overnight rally. Otherwise, 2150.00 is the essentially next higher objective for a renewed bias-up signal.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

An earlier 4-point bounce off of the 2128.75 low had been retraced entirely. A shallower bounce then also failed, forming a Descending Triangle. And the pattern has broken lower. Sharply lower. The pre-open dip sliced through yesterday’s 2126.75 low down to 2123.50.

If support at yesterday’s low isn’t going to contain the overnight selling, then “lower prior highs” at4 2121.25 from Monday’s close will be the next opportunity to immediately attract post-open buyers. Perhaps the last opportunity, prior to breaking lower and trending down through the day to probe under last week’s lows.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

So much for gapping up. Reaction to the ECB events (i.e. Draghi’s presser) triggered a slide from 2140.50 to 2132.25). That is a test of yesterday morning’s low, which must hold through the open to avoid shifting momentum down. Even then, holding it wouldn’t preclude probing it intraday, although its recovery would be likelier. Regardless, the nearest and most recent “unfinished business” is above at 2145.50 — above yesterday’s high and the overnight high. Back into positive territory through a relevant timing window would all but put into play fresh highs.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.