Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Overnight action had trended down relentlessly to test “lower prior highs” at 2708.00-2709.00 ahead of Thursday’s open. A little deeper post-open test down to 2685.50 initially held, but the morning’s bias environment ultimately collapsed to its next lower objective at 2688.00-2690.00. The noon hour held two tests of 2685.50 and the balance of the session gradually recovered back up to 2705.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s bias environment had been contained by 2700.00 and only the last half-hour had surged to 2705.25. Globex immediately began retracing the late surge, and then some, until touching the upper-end of 2688.00-2690.00. Ranging sideways through midnight suddenly found life at Europe’s opens, rallying up to 2699.00. The effort peaked under yesterday afternoon’s pre-surge 2700.00 highs. Quickly reversing back down held a couple of tests of  2693.00, and is now collapsing to probe the lower-end of 2688.00-2690.00 (to within 1 tick of the 2687.00 bias-down target).

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 ET. There will be no Market Wrap or Saturday Review… Thursday’s close was neither here, nor there. Closing under 2701.00 after probing under it intraday would have signaled a much deeper drop underway. Closing back above 2708.00-2709.00 would have signaled that sellers were absorbed, and that momentum had reversed up. Gapping up or down enough could serve by proxy to suggest that either setup is developing anyway — subject to confirmation through the close. Gapping down enough means under Thursday afternoon’s 2689.00 low, which could also form a “session-long decline” setup. At least its test is currently being threatened. Holding its test through the open could instead form a low that recovers intraday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2690.75 would be likely to trigger the 2695.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2698.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s inside day and the overnight action preceding it were both pretty volatile. Both contained round trips that recovered entirely from relatively deep, steep dives — 11 points and 14 points, respectively. Tuesday’s intraday pattern had contained a similar sequence, sliding 25 points down to 2722.25 before recovering. Wednesday’s intraday low was also 2722.25, stopping short of the morning’s 2720.25. It became “unfinished business” as the balance of the session ranged choppily above it, closing at 2730.00-2731.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex session’s first order of business was to trend back down to Tuesday-Wednesday’s 2722.25 low. Once again only touching it was sufficient to hold its test. But no bounce developed, only a relatively narrow range through midnight, resisted by what is this morning’s 2725.50 bias-down signal. Probing the range’s lower-end momentarily before Europe’s opens touched Wednesday’s unfinished business at 2720.25 to neutralize it. But its reaction back up to 2725.50 was quickly rejected by a collapse that has now extended down to 2710.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Inside days don’t require resolving within any specific time frame or in either direction. Neither do inside days undermine the underlying trend. So, the rally’s next higher target at 2751.00 remains intact. The only questions are how deep of a rubber band stretch would be enough for its snap back up to resume the rally, and how deep would be enough to invalidate the 2751.00 target. “Lower prior highs” at 2708.00-2709.00 are the first opportunity to launch a reaction back up. The next opportunity would be 2688.00-2690.00, but any lower would start to suggest a much deeper reversal is underway. Two potentially bullish setups have formed. First is the past several sessions’ extended narrowing range, a pattern that often breaks falsely in one direction (down) before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction (up). Second is the relentless overnight trending that can be difficult to attract post-open reinforcements. I’ll have parameters on-screen at the open to identify whether the setups are extending or being rejected.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2715.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2718.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2710.25. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2720.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2725.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Tuesday to 2728.00 extended higher to touch the rally’s next target at 2737.00. A deep reversal through the noon hour barely probed negative territory, but came within 1 tick of the afternoon’s 2722.00 bias-down target. Which itself can form a bottom, but its recovery was premature. Recovering to probe the morning’s high by 3 ticks up to 2737.75 began during the bias-down environment, from under its 2728.50 signal, which requires its eventual retest (and often also the 1:20 print, which was 2725.50). Reacting down through the 2735.00 cash session close extended to 2731.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late reaction down extended slightly lower at the Globex open to attack 2730.00. Sideways ranging up to 2735.00 persisted through the State of the Union and midnight. The range suddenly resolved down, sliding sharply through Europe’s opens to 2724.50. Its reaction up just tested the earlier range’s 2730.00 lower-end.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
A “pre-check” Email Alert this morning received zero bouncebacks, suggesting that yesterday’s Yahoo and Gmail issues are resolved. If you provided an alternative email address, you’re welcome to remove it from the distribution list at your leisure. As always, please check the Roadmap blog for the latest scheduled post if you ever suspect an Alert has not been delivered to you... The rally’s adjusted 2751.00 target and its room for noise up to 2757.00 remain in-play. Upside momentum isn’t intact, since yesterday’s late dip violated the afternoon rally’s last pullback limit. The rally was suspicious anyway, having left “unfinished business” below at 2728.50 if not also at 2725.50. Both were neutralized overnight, stopping short of Tuesday’s 2722.25 low to (so far) avoid reversing the near-term trend back down. that doesn’t reinstate upside momentum by default, still needing to trigger a buy signal. And like Monday’s open, that’s difficult to do from opening within the range, so the initial strategy will be to exercise patience, and to first consider fading a trending attempt.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2731.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2727.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2725.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was barely greeted with a pulse. But it wasn’t greeted in decline so a pullback wasn’t likely. That didn’t automatically default to resuming the rally. Neither of the two consecutive closes above 2701.00 securing the rally’s next higher objective at 2756.00 was impressive. Even less impressive was narrow ranging since Thursday afternoon, and now greeting Monday’s open unchanged at Friday’s 2704.50 close. So, our strategy was to consider fading tests of either end of the range, which prepared us for buying into the open’s dip to 2697.00 that held the bias-down signal. Reversing up to the morning’s 2710.25 bias-up signal extended to trigger and then fulfill the afternoon’s bias-up target and Friday’s “unfinished business” at 2719.00-2719.50. A late break higher touched 2725.00 into and out of GOOG’s post-close earnings.

Overnight action’s new info…
We have new behavior from the overnight. If follows GOOG’s earning reaction having surged $30, and then collapsing $60 back into negative territory. The Globex open soon retraced its late surge from 2725.00 down to 2716.25 before midnight. Narrow sideways ranging again developed, similarly to the prior two nights. But very soon after Europe’s opens a 10-1/2 point rally began to 2728.25. Its probe above yesterday’s highs developed complexity to qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” before reacting down to 2725.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Nothing requires extending higher uninterrupted. Yesterday’s rally created more room to expend and absorb selling pressure while maintaining momentum to the 2756.00 target in-play. Last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” requires an intraday retest, which helps to ensure a reaction down will recovery. Monday’s open opted not to exploit its vulnerability to a deeper pullback, and so might this morning. Attempting to extend the rally post-open and only retesting the overnight high could probe back under the overnight lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2723.75 would be likely to trigger the 2722.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2717.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Defensive posturing ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report had slid 12 points to attack 2696.00. That created room for a favorable knee-jerk reaction, a 12-13 point surge back up to Thursday’s 2709.00 high. That’s a lot of volatility, but it was all within the prior afternoon’s range, including a relatively narrow overnight range. So, trending beyond the range wasn’t likely, especially if not done early. The early trending attempt did probe fresh highs up to 2716.00, and triggered a late bias-up, which fresh highs through the 10:30 grace period confirmed. But its 2719.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business” as price eventually retested the overnight low down to 2695.50. The last hour’s surge ended at 2704.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging has only narrowed, despite another aggressive start. Sunday night’s 2699.00 open immediately retraced 61.8% of Friday’s late surge, and immediately reacted back up to probe positive territory, and to once again find resistance at 2708.00-2709.00. Sliding into Europe’s opens tested and retested 2701.00, only to recover 2709.00. Price is currently unchanged at Friday’s 2704.50 close

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s late surge qualified as a second consecutive close above 2701.00, confirming the rally’s next higher objective at 2756.00 is in-play. None of which prevents an interim detour with room down to 2656.00-2666.00. If anything, Friday’s narrow ranging around 2701.00 makes a pullback likely, and last night’s narrow ranging makes a pullback likelier. Even suddenly trying to rally this morning would be suspicious, and the burden of proof would be on buyers until maintaining a breakout through a relevant timing window.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 within the 2701.00-2708.00 range would be unlikely to trigger either bias signal this morning.