Pre-market Tour

A credible break down from the choppy overnight range should be obvious very earlier during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Maintaining the range’s ~2122.50 lower end through the first 5-10 minutes would become likelier to at least probe above the overnight highs.

That was one of the basic message of this morning’s Tour. Which I repeated as we ended the recording, and the overnight range’s internal support was being probed. That developed into slicing through it to fresh lows, now touching 2120.00. So, just maintaining the break through the open, or not, may suffice for extending the decline.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight decline persisted and has produced a fresh low at 2132.75. This is testing 2134.00, relevant both in the bigger picture, and for being this morning’s renewed bias-down target. The next lower support is at Monday afternoon’s 2130.50 low, which doesn’t require a test, but its test would be predictive. Gaps down are difficult to maintain when begun by relentless overnight trending, which is vulnerable to counter-trend sponsorship. However the open resolves this setup, the balance of the morning is likely to extend it.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Still no probe under the 2100.25 low that had printed overnight in sympathy with Asia’s opens — only its retest. That’s a optimism, which is bullish bearish from a contrarian perspective. So is the upleg underway from the Double Bottom, now testing 2114.00.

Recovering 2116.00-2116.50 through the open would make the 2117.50 bias-down signal much less likely to trigger at 10:15. Touching 2116.00-2116.50 and reversing back under 2111.50 would signal momentum reversing down. Back under 2109.00 at any time would signal the decline had resumed.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight slide that had originated just before Europe’s opens has extended sharply lower pre-open. This morning’s 2167.25 bias-down signal and its 2162.25 target are far exceeded down to 2157.50. Rallying back above the target and preferably also above 2164.25 through the open would suggest this morning will recover. Otherwise, a renewed bias-down target of 2155.00 might seem optimistic compared to how much room below there is, not to mention a potential air pocket.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The ECB statement was greeted by the market having returned to unchanged at 2179.50 basis Dec (2185.50 basis Sep). Its knee-jerk reaction dipped 2 points, which were soon recovered — but not reversed, as Draghi’s press conference was also greeted at unchanged. Which apparently was unsatisfactory to him.

A 9-1/2 point slide has now probed under yesterday’s low at 2170.50 basis Dec (2177.50 basis Sep), fulfilling its likely retest. Holding its test through the open could also avoid triggering the bias-down signal at 2173.25 basis Dec (2179.75 basis Sep), which would put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal.

Not holding yesterday’s low and triggering bias-down could get very ugly through tomorrow morning, if not longer.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.