Pre-market Tour
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Overnight action is trying to represent complacency. It’s more likely anxiousness, between its fresh relative high and this afternoon’s Beige Book due. So, I’m not expecting a narrow intraday range.
The narrow overnight range had broken a little during Europe’s opens to pierce yesterday afternoon’s 2183.50 high, but that was recovered entirely up to 2186.25. Now it has broken a little lower down to 2181.25, under yesterday’s high.
Yesterday’s cash session close equates to 2185.50, and the gap back up to it will want to be filled. Filling it and then probing a fresh post-open low could serve to reverse momentum down. Sharply. Filling the gap and holding positive territory could instead rally for the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is being greeted by the same choppy ranging as has defined overnight action. A downleg could develop with no particular timing. An upleg should develop almost immediately if it is credible — and even then, immediately rallying would still be vulnerable to failure.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A pessimistic dip down to 2164.25 greeted this morning’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction spiked up to the 2174.25 area, and has since eked higher to touch 2176.00. The bias-up target is another point higher.
That’s a traditional reaction to report’s “disappointment,” which seems to take off the pressure from the Fed raising rates. But a traditional knee-jerk reaction was always expected. It’s the follow-through that matters. And exceeding the 2177.00 bias-up target at 10:15 — i.e. renewing the bias-up signal next targeting 2181.25 — would signal that buyers are following-through.
Otherwise, not renewing the bias-up would likely range flat-to-lower this morning. And that’s only if bias-up is triggered. This being Friday, a few disappointed buyers can become hordes of aggressive sellers within minutes. Not triggering bias-up at 10:15 could be very bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Ruh-roh. Extending yesterday afternoon’s recovery ran into resistance at 2177.00. Its reaction has backed down to almost unchanged 2169.50. That’s not a gap up, which resuming yesterday’s recovery would require. Trying to rally could be doomed to failure. Declining through the morning would now be credible.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
I’m aware there was an issue logging into the chaRTroom this morning. I’m contacting support to confirm whether they are aware of any problem…
ADP issues a report on the Wednesday prior to Friday’s monthly Employment Situation report. Many view its data as a proxy for what to expect Friday from the government. I view the market’s reaction as an indicator of what to expect Friday from the market.
The market’s negative reaction to this morning’s weaker report suggests it doesn’t like there being an excuse to avoid a rate hike. It is counter-intuitive, but worse for the market than “bad” news is bad news hovering indefinitely over it. Should be interesting Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.