Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Closing above 2548.00-2555.00 Tuesday had put into play the next higher objective at 2606.00. And Tuesday’s session-long rally setup had suggested that Wednesday morning would probe higher. So, Wednesday’s 2583.00 gap up extended higher to test 2590.00. That didn’t prevent reacting down to headlines similar to Tuesday morning’s 34-point drop, but. by a relatively shallower 21 points to test the morning’s 2569.25 bias-down signal’s support. The drop was recovered to fresh highs through the noon hour up to 2595.50. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes reaction triggered a surge attacking 2597.00, before ranging choppily sideways back down to 2580.00. Unfinished business was left outstanding by oversold RSIs at the morning’s 2569.00 low requiring a retest, also similar to oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 2547.25 low.

Overnight action’s new info…
The last dip to 2580.00 by Wednesday’s late choppy range was extended through the Globex open. Quickly sliding to 2565.00 neutralized the intraday low’s required retest. Its reaction up to 2574.50 was eventually resolved down through Europe’s opens to 2560.50. Bouncing back up to 2572.00 is now trying to hold above earlier 2565.00 low.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is the rally rolling over already? The recent string over several sessions of shallower and briefer pullbacks had suggested that optimism was expanding, and that a capitulative surge was nearing. Two consecutive closes above the 2548.00-2555.00 range had confirmed the rally’s next higher objective at 2606.00 is in-play. A little pullback was possible for having come so close to 2606.00 Wednesday. But last night’s drop is not a little pullback. It is threatening to open under the entirety of yesterday’s range. Retesting the 2548.00-2555.00 range at this stage of the pattern would only start chipping away at its support. Opening back above yesterday’s lows to form an Isolation setup, and preferably all the way back up into positive territory, is the optimal bullish path — if not the only one still available today.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2576.00 would be likely to trigger the 2579.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2566.00 would be likely to exceed the 2571.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday gapped up at 2576.00 above Monday afternoon’s high, after Monday’s closing action had trended down, which formed a session-long rally setup. Which didn’t prevent immediately collapsing 34 points to test Monday’s 2550.50 close down to 2547.50. The balance of the session trended back up, each timing window probing the prior window’s high, leaving the morning’s bias environment as the one exception. The open’s 2576.00 gap up was probed by 1 point at the late high before dipping 2-3 points into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late pullback extended slightly lower to 2568.50 and quickly reversed back up. Soon probing fresh highs, the recovery extended to test 2587.00 and ranged sideways through midnight. An eventual dip greeted Europe’s opens at 2575.50, back under yesterday’s late 2577.00 high. A 10-point bounce to 2585.50 has been retraced back under yesterday’s late high again to 2576.00. Overnight dips back under yesterday’s late 2577.00 high have come from probing above the open’s 2581.00 high. So far, overnight action has essentially fluctuated around yesterday’s highs.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Overnight fluctuation around yesterday’s highs hasn’t extended, nor has it been rejected. And the overnight high is not a trend extreme we can rely on being retested intraday. But if it hasn’t created a vacuum that attracts the open up into it, then a weaker open would be vulnerable to forming a bearish Isolation setup, or even a Globex-flip. To the degree that Tuesday’s intraday recovery was a successful session-long rally, then fresh highs should be probed this morning. But there’s no other unfinished business above, so the overnight probes would suffice if the open forms a reversal setup. The overnight high even peaked upon testing this morning’s bias-up signal’s target. Meanwhile, closing yesterday above the 2548.00-2555.00 range has put into play 2606.00, subject to confirmation of a second consecutive higher close, or to being invalidated by closing back under 2548.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2580.50 would be likely to trigger the 2577.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2572.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s 2534.00 open was essentially flat with Friday’s 2531.00-2533.00 close, and with Sunday night’s earlier Globex low. In the interim was a probe above Friday’s high up to 2552.00, and the reversal back down from it. Continuing to reverse down through the open would form a bearish Globex-flip setup. But the open held, helped by Friday’s bullish session-long rally setup still in-play. So, the Globex-flip became as bullish as it would have been bearish. Friday morning’s rally resumed, trending up through the noon hour’s exit. That was still 2 points short of the afternoon’s 2569.25 bias-up target, which became “unfinished business” when the afternoon’s dip held a test its 2550.50 bias-down signal. Meanwhile, the afternoon dip did gain traction for its efforts, and the rally’s next higher target at 2548.00-2555.00 held as resistance through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Gradually recovering into midnight tested 2563.00 before defensively posturing ahead of Europe’s opens. The pullback to 2554.00 held and a relief rally surged to eventually probe yesterday’s high up to 2569.00, neutralizing Monday’s unfinished business. Its reaction down to 2560.00 has recovered to higher highs at 2572.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Neutralizing yesterday’s unfinished business above now relies on post-open patterns to extend the rally. That will be challenging, since yesterday afternoon’s dip created a position of weakness, which suggests the attempt to resume the rally will fail. Closing back within the 2548.00-2555.00 range had avoided putting into play the next higher target at 2606.00. Closing above the 2548.00-2555.00 range today would still put the higher target into play anyway. And maintaining a gap up above yesterday’s 2567.50 high — which is also yesterday’s bias environment high, after having trended down into the close — could form a session-long rally. Otherwise, closing back under 2548.00-2555.00 would help to confirm upside momentum is done.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2571.00 would be likely to exceed the 2568.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2566.00 would be likely to trigger the 2560.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2483.00 open had recovered from probing overnight under Thursday’s low down to 2438.50. And having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up above its 2474.00 afternoon high formed a “session-long rally” setup. Every timing window did probe its prior timing window’s high, except for the last two which consolidated under the noon hour’s 2439.00 high, back down to 2522.50. Usually only one window is an exception, but the setup still succeeded in avoiding any downtrending as it closed around 2531.00-2533.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up, albeit slightly and still within Friday afternoon’s range to 2537.00. Its reaction down to 2532.00 was quickly absorbed by extending to fresh highs attacking 2552.00. Trending down since then had retraced the 2532.00 earlier Globex low by midnight. Extending down since then has been probing negative territory, attacking the lower-end of Friday afternoon’s range at 2523.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Successful session-long signals tend to extend through the following morning. Similarly, the missing window tends to be fulfilled the following morning, aggressively to compensate for the delay. Either way, the burden of proof is definitely on sellers. In this weekend’s Saturday Review we discussed the likeliest way for way sellers to retake control being through a Globex-flip setup. A Globex-flip is now being threatened as the overnight probe above Friday’s high has retraced back down to the 2532.50 earlier Globex low. And with the 2552.00 overnight high having fulfilled the bear market rally’s next higher objective at 2548.00-2555.00, reversing down could be that much more durable. Until the setup triggers, its reversal can be avoided and the morning can still probe fresh highs. And greeting the open with a Globex-flip that doesn’t trigger can be as bullish as the setup would have been bearish. Closing any higher would then target 2606.00, still all within the context of being a temporary bear market rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2532.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above above 2532.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2524.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down to 2490.50 was in recovery mode from having attacked Tuesday night’s 2452.00 low down to 2462.50. Its blip-up to 2493.00 began collapsing almost immediately to probe fresh lows down to 2447.00. Recovering almost all of it by noon proved only temporary, as the balance of the session trended back down. The close was overlapping the morning’s low down to 2443.00, after having stopped optimistically short of even touching it during the final hour.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming through the Globex open up to 2456.00 was reversed to probe yet more fresh lows down to 2438.50. But only temporarily, as firming again was consolidating up to 2462.00 by midnight. And that soon resumed its recovery to attack yesterday’s highs up to 2487.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Stopping optimistically short of retesting Thursday morning’s low had made the overnight dip likely. Its probe was relatively shallow and brief before reversing back up into Thursday’s range. Although just another version of optimism, it hasn’t been ineffectual. That hasn’t prevented rallying so much into so weighty of a report as the Employment Situation report. It’s yet another version of optimism, and potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Potentially. Maintaining the open back above Thursday afternoon’s ~2474.00 high could form a “session-long rally” setup. Meanwhile, touching yesterday morning’s 2489.00 high during the open would require its recovery to be maintained, too. Rejecting either setup, or both, would have a lot of room to expend selling pressure before challenging yesterday’s lows. But a deep enough retracement this morning would remain vulnerable to extending down into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.