Pre-market Tour

Last night’s slide had consolidated a couple of points either way around this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down target. That consolidation formed a Symmetrical Triangle, which broke higher to 2004.25. Being this morning’s bias-down signal it is also resistance. And its resistance pushed back into the triangle.

Being a Symmetrical Triangle, its initial break is often false, reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. The open is fast-approaching, so that overnight influence might not persist into the cash session. If it does, then the renewed bias-down target is 1994.00. Quickly rejecting the overnight slide could quickly rally back into positive territory.

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The reaction down from touching Friday’s 2012.50 high has settled back in to the range’s 2006.00-2007.00 midpoint. That’s also where the past two sessions close, reflecting a degree of comfort there, if not also complacency. In either case, trending in one direction or the other is difficult to start, and difficult to predict, so be careful not to “force” trades just for the sake of trading. If trending attempts are less likely to extend, then they should be monitored for signs of reversing back into the range and possibly also to the range’s other end.

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The pre-open recovery has extended to fresh highs, and also through the 2011.75 attraction to 2014.00. The 2011.00 bias-up signal (+/- 3 ticks) seems to be the bullish line in the sand whose recovery when it matters will matter a lot, with the next higher objective being 2019.50. Not recovering the 2011.00 area would suggest backing-and-filling this morning to delay rallying until the afternoon. I’m not a seller in positive territory, but exiting the open in negative territory would suggest testing the 1999.50 bias-down signal ahead.

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The open isn’t indicated to gap up. Since yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction, that makes a durable rally unlikely. It also makes any rally attempt less likely, but possible — just likely to fail if attempted. And today’s news flow has plenty of Fed catalysts capable of triggering attempts, left and right (or up and down).

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The open is being greeted while still ranging around yesterday morning’s 1982.00 high. A large Symmetrical Triangle has formed, whose influence must be obvious during the opening 15 minutes to have any influence on the intraday at all. That means not yet reversing initial trending by 9:45 would be likelier to extend in that direction.

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