Pre-market Tour

The bounce from overnight lows is trying only now to extend. Too late to be taken seriously, or a clever preservation of buying energy? A recovery above 1976.00  maintained through 9:45 would suggest the latter, at least to avoid triggering bias-down. Testing the 1972.00 bias-down signal and holding it through 10:15 would also create an objective to probe above yesterday’s highs. But losing this last-minute sentiment battle could trigger bias-down, and keep the session on defense.

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Greeting the week with extreme sentiment has doubled-down (or doubled-up, depending upon your perspective) by coming within 3 ticks of the 1960.00 objective’s resistance. Testing it post-open and reacting back down under 1956.00 would signal the morning’s likelihood for trending back down, at least backing-and-filling. Recovering 1957.25-1960.00 through the open could duplicate much of Friday afternoon’s rally.

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Payrolls reacted down a bit. A bit to the 100th degree. Just moments after finally probing between Wednesday night’s 1927.50-1929.50 highs, the report’s reaction was attacking 1900.00. That has since extended under yesterday’s 1890.25 low, down to 1885.50.

All downside attractions from yesterday are neutralized, so the question is whether more will be created. There’s the afternoon bias environment’s 1891.75 low, which could form a “session-long decline” setup. There’s Tuesday’s 1889.75 high, whose break through 9:45 would put into play a retest of everything below it.

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My First Trade blog post 0pointed out that that despite extending up to 1929.50 overnight, the 1915.00 bias-up target  must be retested from above since it was ignored from below. Moments later, it was being probed on the way down to 1911.50.

That has been probed down to 1909.25. Yesterday’s late high was testing its target at 1909.75.

This action is potentially bullish, depending upon isolating the action to the overnight. Not recovering high enough post-open, or simply extending down, would threaten to extend back to Tuesday’s lows which yesterday’s early sellers couldn’t trigger.

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The overnight rally’s test of 1900.00 has reacted down to 1894.00. Will 1897.00-1899.00 resistance be tested during the open? Exceeding it at 9:45, or not, would indicate whether sellers were retaking control. If they do, it’s probably that — not just buyers hesitating, but yesterday’s sellers being rewarded for having gained traction. Trending up through the open and recovering any resistance tested would delay that drop in favor of extending the overnight bounce.

[There is no recording today due to operator error — sorry!]