Pre-market Tour

The overnight recovery to 1886.00 was consolidated back to 1876.50. Back down again, and back up again. Not just a wide 4-hour range, but more evidence that yesterday’s decline is just waiting for the “get out of stocks” crowd to get in for the day. I won’t sell within the range, but under it after rejecting a rally attempt into it, or after a probe above the range starts dipping back into it. Triggering bias-up anyway would still be credible, but only for a brief detour up.

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The last failed bounce to 1912.00 had probed fresh lows attacking 1902.00. Now another recovering to 1912.00 is reacting down again. Intraday selling hasn’t yet responded to the overnight drops, and not much more to Friday’s late drop which was lightly attended.

While that can quickly devolve into a new downleg, we’ll be monitoring fresh lows for any signs of sellers having become absorbed. Meanwhile, bouncing right away without hesitation would still be vulnerable to reacting down to fresh lows.

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The reaction down from 1951.00 tested 1941.25 down to 1939.00, bouncing sharply back up to 1949.00.  Another pre-open dip is testing 1938.00, which must be recovered through 9:45 to make the bias-up signal likely to renew. Exiting the open above 1945.00 could marginalize sellers for the day…

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The 19-point slide has extended its 1908.00-1914.00 consolidating beyond 2 hours as the open approaches. The template suggests resuming the decline without delay, targeting 1899.00. There is potential for bouncing first, but in that case probably only to test 1920.50 before reversing to fresh lows. Regardless of how a probe to fresh lows were to begin, it’s ultimate resolution is unknown without two pieces of information we’ll get this morning. Bouncing so much as to avoid fresh lows altogether would not be a credible bottom.

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The pre-open rally has already tested the 1941.25 preliminary level. Its recovery through 9:45 would make the 1938.25 bias-up signal likely to trigger. We’ll see. It became the head of a Head & Shoulders pattern that has reacted down to 1927.50. If not recovered quickly, then backing-and-filling into yesterday’s range becomes very likely, perhaps also attacking its lows. Details are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
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