Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s rejection of Tuesday night’s rally quickly fell more than 10 points from 2429.75. The 10:15 bias timing window exit was probing Monday’s 2420.50 close down to 2419.25. The plunge was recovered almost entirely almost as quickly, attacking 2429.75 at the 11:30 bias environment exit. The balance of the session ranged choppily flat-to-higher at 2426.50-2432.25, settling back under the morning’s 2429.75 highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
A blip-up to 2430.50 was soon reversed to probe under Wednesday afternoon’s 2426.50 lows. Price action consolidated there until Europe’s opens triggered another dip, which extended down sharply to fresh lows for the week at 2416.00 before bouncing. That’s a 61.8% retracement of the bounce from Thursday’s 2402.25 low.

If, then…
Wednesday morning’s plunge had stopped optimistically short of touching Monday morning’s 2418.50 lows. Its support was already chipped away, so the last-minute deflection is bearish from a contrarian perspective. Support there wasn’t even obligatory — in fact, this overnight drop sliced through it. Gapping down under prior lows would be vulnerable to extending lower immediately. Any delay would be in order to correct back up to what is now “higher prior lows” at 2420.00. Extending down would next target 2399.00 if not also 2393.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2421.50 would be less likely to break back under the 2419.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would otherwise renew the bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
[Unavailable today due to a technical matter.]

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The holiday-shortened session bowed to different influences than normally, if it bowed to any influences, at all. Renewing Monday morning’s 2435.50 bias-up target produced no follow-through. Consolidating through the bias environment formed a Symmetrical Triangle centered around 2434.00. Breaking lower at noon fell to 2426.50 and then to 2422.00 into the early close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging choppily Monday night greeted Europe’s opens from just under Monday’s 2422.00 close. A quick reaction up extended to 2431.25. Narrow ranging broke lower in time to close unchanged at 2424.00-2425.00. Tuesday night’s action has been choppy, but less so, currently hovering just 1 point above unchanged.

If, then…
The eventual reaction down from Monday’s gap up had narrowly avoided filling the gap back down to Friday’s close around 2420.00. Despite not rallying any higher in all the time since then, the gap remains unfilled. Its attraction is almost “obligatory,” likely at least to be filled. Almost obligatory, and not entirely so, because overnight action can be dismissed if not extended during the opening 15 minutes. So, extending down at all is likely to break lower  and retest Friday morning’s 2418.50 lows, which offer little support if any, on the way down to fresh lows. Rallying instead — preferably by gapping up which isn’t indicated, or by recovering Monday’s 2436.50 highs through any relevant timing window — would likely end the two-week decline and rally back up to new highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2433.00 would likely trigger the 2430.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or Wednesday July 5th I hope everyone had a pleasurable Independence Day pleasurable safe we’ve got some news that has a track record of influencing price action maybe factors influence that can be traced suspected from the drop if the open is filling the gap or even before the open back down to Friday’s close we’re probably going to be breaking through it breaking through it says really the real test is Friday mornings 24 1850 Liz you can see the obligatory test there that support should be chipped away so if 24 1850 is were tested we probably break it on the way down to Fresh Lowe’s fresh Liz means under last week’s was at least a retest of it but 2399 to 2393 I should say 23923 otherwise turn it down so much is just pull back correct silver extended down even more deeply for some reason the transfer of the levels from July aren’t really taking need to get that done little more indelibly but here’s the July pattern July charts were on sep now but structurally the same pattern all the resistance up here being tested and needing to retest would have been the prior Sun Daze Spike down to its Target equivalent to 1635 set then the requirement to retest it at a minimum and being extended so here’s sep again 1635 Target there was Matt Pryor Sunday night requiring a retest not necessarily intraday just a retest because of its Spike value and also not being tested or Bing retraced to the degrees retraced already is because to fully testing the Target and pay the consequence now for that big detour in doing so is it closer to a bottom or it’s always closer to a bottom line is always closer to about doesn’t mean it’s closer to turn and now we have this is not or at least star crude oil which had its next resistance 4706 basically tested it overnight tested after Tuesday’s close never really extended it remember this is kind of living on borrowed time while our pattern I did Target 4490 and then that was recalculate before it was met two or Justin to 4525 this is just been accessed without triggering a pool bat or without violating a pullback this is just been gravy but if this stage back under 46 would indicate that the rally has ended at least this leg of the rally remember what are objective is that this pattern Beaver tested at the low the foreman or more durable bottom and natural gas just can’t get away from this 295 I knew after Thursday’s need jerk reaction and failed knee jerk reaction to the CIA report we knew we were coming back to test to fill a gap that basically to 295 and this should be here Sunday night came back last night to Type your transcription text here and we’ll autosave your every 15s. Make sure you use our handy shortcuts (Esc, F1, F2, F3, F4, F6) to control the audio playback..

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s ranging around 2417.00-2420.00 had broken higher, early enough not to be disqualified as only a last-minute false breakout. The pre-open attack on 2427.00 was probed post-open. But RSIs diverged negatively into another retest above 2428.00, triggering a reaction down to 2418.50. Two more touches of 2418.50 defined the morning’s bias environment. The balance of the session was defined by recovering gradually to retest the morning’s test of 2428.00. A late blip-up came too late to be credible, and was reversed down sharply by quarter-end re-positioning from 2430.00 to to attack the morning’s 2418.50 low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open quickly completed Friday’s late dip back down to the morning’s 2418.50 low. Then Friday’s intraday pattern repeated, recovering gradually back up to test its late 2430.00 high.

If, then…
Levels and inflection points are always influential to some degree. But today’s holiday-shortened session makes patterns less predictive and resolutions less reliable. So much, occasionally, that they can be contrary. That’s probably why last night’s dip back down to Friday morning’s 2418.50 low was recovered instead of plunging through it — which would be likely intraday. Meanwhile, today’s session is greeted in an ongoing two-week downtrend of lower lows and lower highs, whose two rally efforts were rejected aggressively.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2430.50 would be likely to trigger the 2428.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market two or not allowed to go over see if we can make this and record time the big thing that happened on Friday was Thursday Thursday night actually actually after Thursday night it was more Friday morning but it’s actually it was this here’s the overnight action Thursday night little bit of a head fake blip down quite literally at your UPS opens or into Europe’s opens and then not so late that it was likely a false break and it has not been an extended but it hasn’t been reversed since then but not that it extended Friday’s pre-open had extended higher an early test of it while 3-minute are inside only failed to get to over but limited are inside the Verge negatively and reacted down and the morning being of Friday if you make it to the bias environment without X fill in the blank 4X if there is a axe that’s being attempted in this is not just Friday mornings bias environment in a over way but beneath the surface behind the scenes or just a little little less influentially anytime in window this is pretty glaring that’s Friday morning trying retrying retrying you know that’s a tablet or a probe at some point is coming but couldn’t get it done Friday morning and so when you come into the holiday weekend or essentially we’re in what I’ve described to find is basically a five-day holiday even though it’s not too working holiday balance of the session just gravitated higher I didn’t catch that early enough but the point is that is what did happen just gravitated hire that was it for influence which we already knew that was going to be in short supply if it was going to be available at all and then at the end actually let’s go to the one minute this was a bicycle right here that gravitating hire this was a bicycle ride here at 7:50 and it was too late to be credible that’s how we got into the final hour it was too late to be credible for breaking it was too late but that doesn’t mean that the market can’t try breaking higher now we are in a two-week downtrend lower lows and lower high as the only Rally’s that since Monday the two Mondays ago the only Rally’s it is really to actual rally attempts there’s one there’s one last Monday rejected aggressively there is one Wednesday got somewhere didn’t make a higher high but it was then Thursday rejected aggressively there’s no reason to think that pattern has changed there’s nothing that is a catalyst today so we’re going to be 41 and Gala Davis break and now resting on its Laurels silver and gold both there’s July for silver which is not the front-month anymore but just an illustrated because that’s the pattern we were tracking with these gaps up to this area that needed to resolve down nothing changed from Wednesday’s Gap up still needed to resolve down and indeed overnight last night down to 1640 bassist July that’s here and now it’s good except which equates to as far as last night 1645 the objective being to retest the test of what had been the target below this bike down that targeted at tested what was 1625 1630 and bassist July 16 35 40 basically call 35 basis app so nothing about the rally said that was off the table at least not at that point and now nothing about this reaction down suggest it isn’t back on the table gold as well where to stop short last week actually testing the 12:35 Target before bouncing and now is fulfilling the 12:35 Target proving it overnight I can’t say that that’s going to be the end of the road here it’s clearly not it’s being probed intraday and so are overnight so it’s clearly not going to turn on a dime so to speak but we could see this down to 1231 before suggesting a bigger break is underway if there’s going to be a corrective balance of corrective bounces likeliest Launchpad would be from 12:31 having said that back about 12:36 would also be capable of launching a bounce with a couple of possibilities 1243 12:40 gold and silver to define a better low didn’t happen and that overnight that’s being probed little bit I mean it’s not getting carried away because he’s coming back to 46 resistance which was being tested Friday the longest 4525 doesn’t break lower there’s potential for this to extend even hire you know what’s the potential that a bottom is already in it is that is possible I really don’t like that pattern though that does leave a couple things unfinished below just one of the kind of thing that can happen on a note back headliner or two cutter is in the news of course but if there is a reaction down that can seal the bottom then we can look at crude oil as being pretty bullish Natural Gas Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up it wasn’t sustain said we were probably coming down to the 290-5297 area got down to 298 that’s not too bad it doesn’t necessarily surprised it wasn’t deep enough to to be reliable for having sealed the bottom that Gap really does want to be filled so overnight gap down and took care of that there’s no unfinished business below now none there’s no requirement to test the gap down last night’s gap down and the Gap back to Friday’s close is now an attraction helping to recover so back of a 308 is the nearest opportunity to know that the signal at least that momentum is reversing up again that in the case of natural gas bottom has been sealed but just testing just fill in the Gap back to 295 which we had indicated what which Thursday’s pattern indicated was coming so long as that holds bottoming is underway alright any questions .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

PROGRAMMING NOTES: Market Wrap MAY be held early today, and Saturday Review is NOT held on holiday weekends.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Today’s audio seems to stop at a late point, but I do then repeat the missed info.]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session-long rally had extended its session-long rally overnight up to 2445.00. That could have been delayed until Thursday morning — or repeated or extended, and likely would have — so long as Thursday’s open was not already reversing back under Wednesday’s 2440.50 intraday highs. A dip had already warned us to act quickly if it repeated, and it repeated. The 2437.50 sell signal quickly triggered and soon extended to the reversal’s 2431.50 minimum objective. If that did not hold, then the next lower objective was to probe under Wednesday’s 2413.75 pre-open low. The afternoon bias environment touched 2402.25 in a capitulative pattern that was retraced up to 2422.50 before the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging was contained mostly between 2418.00-2422.00, narrow under most circumstances, and more so compared to Thursday’s range. Europe’s opens triggered a blip-down to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2414.75 bias-down signal. Its reaction up has extended to fresh overnight highs probe this morning’s 2425.25 bias-up signal by 6 ticks.

If, then…
Was Thursday’s plunge the delayed consequence of Wednesday having rallied prematurely? Was Wednesday’s rally, or Thursday’s plunge — or both, for that matter — influenced by the impending 5-day weekend’s illiquidity? Regardless of influences 2-3 days prior, today the weekend and its unique influences have arrived. Evaporating volume and shrinking liquidity typically inhibit trending from starting, and similarly exacerbate trending if a catalyst starts it. Today is being greeted from a position of weakness, having trended down since the prior Monday. Resuming the decline would be attracted down by the required retest of simultaneously oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2402.25 low. And then likely further to “lower prior high” at 2399.00 down to 2393.00. The same influences cut either way, and could extend yesterday afternoon’s recovery. But sellers won’t be marginalized at this stage of the pattern, so any rally would be tenuous.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2426.75 would be likely to trigger the 2425.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2421.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market to her a little bit of a push up here at the last couple minutes before starting the tour was trying to throw a little early actually today as it happens there’d been a will get into yesterday’s decline in the moment but overnight price action is really been defined by this relatively narrow narrow range largely to find between 2418 2422 yesterday’s late high was 2250 that was almost touched almost touched initially not by a significant Miss not considering the other night is the overnight here’s your UPS opens triggering flip down to a fresh low at 2415 1475 is the bias down signal so one tick off overnight and now we acting up to test the 24 25 25 by up signal test actually prove it proving it by by one point at this moment okay so does any of it mean anything not this early not this close to the open or this far from the open today of course if that would put into play and in the scheme of things which is yesterday show up it’s been corrected it doesn’t have to extend any higher today to correct any to finish correcting and if the decline resume that’s a likely attraction not only is that a likely attraction but it’s retest because of the ever sold simultaneously ever sold our size because of the simultaneously oversold are size of three tests would not likely hold or at least would be likely to touch 2399 before holding where there are lower Pryor High as you have to be retested + 2399 if that’s tested under the right circumstances could extend damn would likely extend down to 2393 before being able to recover if that could have gotten out of the way and I say that as if it’s already failed to happen and we we are not open yet where where a new downdraft can’t get that done early this morning my point is if early selling where to test add the RC by recovering the two week-old High that was already threatening it really invalidates this cell signal there is no more requirement by the cell signal that is invalidated that’s gap would like to be filled but there’s no requirement to close any lower in any case yesterday’s pattern created a island today is not indicated to gap down back under it and overnight has only traded higher so not a great sale candidate without it first showing that it’s weakening the pound had to confirm breakout requiring at least eventual third our clothes that is now fulfilled the Looney similarly confirm Breakout Now quickly fulfilled doesn’t mean it’s about to reverse down but there’s no requirement to extend any higher and the euro is disappeared and it’s back to the gyro also and it’s going again okay so obviously having a little bit of attitude problem there with the Euro confirm break out already fulfilled as well probing above its minimum objective Rob’s Arts maximum objective for this leg for the buying pressure contained in the basing that launched it it’s quite extended pull back clematis 11450 basically gold essentially at least the closure say held its 12:40 6:50 upper end of the balance limit probe did intraday but held It ultimately and reacting down a little bit there’s after yesterday yesterday’s pre-open or overnight slide that extended into the open stopped short the 12:35 charging that remains outstanding silver rolling forward to this app is extending down further overnight but it really didn’t participate yesterday other than to fill a gap outstanding below it could break lower that’s not to say it won’t because even though before Monday is open already tested the attempted yesterday and okay there’s been an audio issue here as we’ve gone through gone through and I’m not sure where to put can I’m sorry let’s go through the last few charts if it started with Metals wear silver has yet to even remotely try retesting Sunday night Slow that did anyway we test it STAR test its Target and it already responded to it its underperforming gold they wants to leave the way back down and certainly free to do that gold which is off a little but it held its bounce them at long bond which could be forming of pretty interesting bottom here because yesterday’s low held the declines Target it didn’t close above 150 for 16 and now a retest of yesterday’s allow is trying to hold it as well that set up essentially or at least almost equates to being a Buy Signal but the 154 16 is still helpful trigger that momentum is reversing up crude oil had 4525 Target extended Target the met and held yesterday and it’ll likely area to launch the next down leg with the next down leg is likely to be limited just backing and filling the complete a bottom it reacted down yesterday but not durably and it’s only retesting yesterday’s high this morning and the natural gas which greeted yesterday’s eia report from a position of strength and had a new gerbil knee-jerk reaction to it never the last ended lower and has potential now down to 295 Friday last Friday’s close lower prioritize the 95 to 97 however back above 308 if at any point this pull-back closes back rejected and retraced at least the clothes back of a 308 will assume the pullbacks done alright today ok .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open gapped up above Tuesday afternoon’s 2427.50 high. Probing under Tuesday’s lows down to 2413.50 was isolated to the overnight. The combination produced a session-long rally to 2440.50 in which every timing window probed a prior high except for the last. The close exceeded 2435.50 higher prior lows and was still testing its 2438.00 room for noise.

Overnight action’s new info…
Although Wednesday’s last timing window had ranged sideways, the rally resumed immediately at the Globex open. And then it immediately stopped. First surging 6-1/2 points up to 2444.50, a narrow 2-point range developed until Europe’s opens triggered a blip-up. Its reaction down extended to 2439.00 where a brief consolidation has resolved up sharply to test 2443.00.

If, then…
Session-long rallies are likely to extend higher the following morning. Exceptions require either gapping down, or else already probing higher highs overnight. Last night fulfilled the latter condition of already probing higher highs. But that can be repeated intraday so long as momentum hasn’t reversed down at the open. The dip to 2439.00 was a close-call, and its retest would likely fail — not necessarily for the session, but to shift sentiment this morning down to 2431.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2445.00 would be likely to trigger the 2443.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2440.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour and don’t forget yesterday was a pretty impressive day gapped up get them none of the entirety of the bias environment Prep students by his environment range but above least structurally a last relative High extended eventually through that crap advice environment I threw that prior mornings High to not an axillary prior session Mondays by Zimmerman high but through this congestion which doesn’t really stand alone never lasts it has a singular representation of 3550 it’s higher priorities and other words it’s all so essentially the Lowe’s Monday was Friday’s Cat session close made it through all that closed above all that so long as the open isn’t basically gapping down under it today yesterday’s what turned out to be a session on rally will extend higher this morning actually the opportunity to close under 30 back under 3550 was yesterday so today by proxy the open would need to reject 3150 back under 3150 10 day kind of selling pressure coming in there could have been indicated just buy closing under 35 yesterday and this last night after the last time until yesterday range sideways every time ago but one had prior timing Windows High that’s a characteristic of a long really was not until but it did confirm a break out yesterday the Europe extending higher actually pretty significantly higher relevantly higher testing for 11470 which is the next higher objective it has a confirmed break out as well looking for a third of ventral third I are close silver and gold both had bounced into some bigger resistance points retracement points even if we knew the hundred percent degree of certainty they were going to extend higher they’re actually testing some resistance that needs or as deserving of a reaction down correction if gold were the closer to 1240 650 it probably isn’t just a correction probably is not just a correction Long Pond continuing this huge sell off it had tested the minimum objective of the second consecutive down yesterday had the decline extended yesterday its minimum objective was 150 for 16 the leg has potential to test 153 28th so while yesterday’s overnight leg and tested 154 16 that was never tested intraday wasn’t rejected we didn’t expect momentum to reverse up and now the decline is resumed or extended to 15320 pretty big drop overnight over point so point of corner so this area is being tested now closing back above 150 for 16 would indicate that the bottom was in or at least that otherwise not so much firmer overnight as testing yesterday’s highs but it it’s a confirm break out and eventual third higher clothes at least a third hour of clothes is required at some point that doesn’t mean it has to be today and doesn’t protect against an immediate reaction down just tells us that the reaction down or recover but it does tell us at today’s report is being created from a position of strength I get down to the news and then reaction but we just .