Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Thursday’s decline closed under 2701.50. Its test and retest as support last week had held to require retracing its pullback from 2755.00. And that had extended through Tuesday’s open to 2790.00. There was no bullish reason to revisit 2701.50, but also no more likely of a bearish resolution until closing under it. Which Thursday did.

Three consecutive sessions have trended down throughout since Monday’s session had rallied throughout. Each of those ultimately bearish sessions included an early rally effort. So, none of the intraday drops qualifies as capitulation. So, has Pavlovian conditioning made buyers reluctant to try, try, try again Friday?

Meanwhile, two days of impending illiquidity creates the influences that are my Friday Factors. Those influences make Friday vulnerable to capitulating, which would have bearish implications for Monday. Gapping up Friday above 2701.50 could help to delay extending this downleg, but even that wouldn’t marginalize the threat of sellers for the day.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.