Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Tuesday’s bearish template was to probe above Monday’s highs and reverse into negative territory. It was likelier to develop during the morning, instead of during the afternoon. It actually developed before the open. That is, Monday’s highs were probed overnight, and negative territory was probed through the bias environment lapsing.

Then came the knee-jerk reaction to news. A headline seeming to mute the dreaded tariff toll triggered a 15-point rally to 2730.00 by noon. That was already within 3 points of the afternoon bias-up target, so it didn’t become “unfinished business above” despite not being touched.

Bias-up wasn’t rejected, either. Knee-jerk reactions to new headlines usually are retraced entirely, eventually. And the noon hour’s surge seemed on its way to being retraced. But that was cut short by another headline touting Trump’s impending appearance. Instead of resuming the decline, the bias environment’s 2723.00-2730.00 range persisted through the close.

The same template governing Tuesday’s open is in-play again Wednesday. If not already trending down at the open, then failed probes of fresh highs should be viewed as distribution, and likely to resolve down. But it’s possible that having blind-sided Tuesday’s attempt to reverse the failed probe, not resolving down Wednesday could extend the rally to 2753.00 or 2765.00.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.