Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Compared to how April came in, March went out like a lamb. The Dow was off 840 points at its low. There was no hint of the day’s intent until the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed. And then there was no denying it. Only one bearish scenario was likely for the day, compared to two bullish scenarios. And the bearish scenario was only very bearish. But its objective to retrace recent lows didn’t require being fulfilled intraday, yet it was.

Last week’s 2796.00-2698.00 lows had only temporarily avoided retesting the prior Friday’s 2585.00 low. And the 2585.00 low’s retest of Feb 5’s pivotal low had all but required new lows down to 2509.00-2511.00. All were put into play by Monday’s dominoes, which remained toppled at the close. In fact, a late bounce only touched 2585.00 when recovering it could have undermined near-term momentum.

Now as important as any price is price behavior. A second consecutive intraday plunge on Tuesday would realign the 1987-style crash pattern. Not optimally — that timing has passed — but the template would allow a break under 2509.00-2511.00.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.