Post-open Review… Scratching out a low.
Post-open extends the overnight recovery.
The inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that had developed overnight ultimately held its 2746.00 shoulder. The open was greeted by probing 2 points above the 2754.25 neckline, and the opening bar added 2 more points.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility trended back down, which is not optimal for an Isolation setup. It still gets a benefit of the doubt, so long as negative territory is still avoided this morning. And continuing to fulfill the setup would continue to make this afternoon likely to rally.
I’m giving the Isolation setup a benefit of the doubt, despite its open not being optimal, because the open’s dip maintained its recovery above yesterday’s lows, especially its optimal 2749.75 support level. The next 15 minutes extended to a fresh high at 2762.00, and its reaction down held the 2755.75 bias-up signal in time to trigger.
None of which prevents a deeper post-open dip down to 2744.50-2746.00. RSIs aren’t improving, and multiple attempts to resume the recovery are each being met with multi-point reactions down. A detour is possible, even if we knew with complete certainty the bias-up and Isolation setups will be fulfilled. Otherwise, reacting down too deeply would invalidate a recovery, and next target 2729.00 below.
Is it me, or does it seem like the “crash” template some how keeps on staying alive/valid to live another day… (Looking at this new low around at 11:13 – and hitting negative on the open)
I first pointed out last week that the timing relationship pointed to Tue-Wed as the optimal peak to the corrective bounce. So far, the bounce’s peak was Tuesday, and its reaction down isn’t having much luck ending.