Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is reliable for influencing price action. It’s the first high-profile report since Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, and it’s accompanied by a the week’s first Fed speaker. Friday’s volatility is kept alive by an afternoon Fed speaker.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.00 | 2099.00 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2105.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.50 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No decision, is decision.
noN-bias takes the edge away from sellers.
Ranging around this morning’s 2095.50 bias-down signal began reacting down into and out of the open, Bouncing to attack 2098.00 was reversed down to 2091.50, twice. But the 2095.50 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.
And it was being retested at 10:30 to avoid triggering. This is not bias-up requiring fresh highs. It is not no-bias requiring fresh lows. It is noN-bias, requiring nothing.
Fresh highs above 2097.00-2098.00 (being tested now) would still be credible for extending higher, isolating the overnight dip, and eventually rallying more obviously this afternoon. Breaking under 2093.00 would still be credible for probing lower, but not necessarily so low as to reinstate the decline.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Hovering at the overnight recovery highs attacking 2099.00 has been supported by the 2095.50 bias-up signal. Not triggering it would put into play an offsetting test of the 2088.00 bias-down signal, but may as well target a probe under the overnight lows. So, rallying today requires not only avoiding negative territory through the open, but also may require triggering this morning’s bias-up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Oh, what a night.
. Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had recovered overnight up to 2104.00-2105.00 after dropping 10 points under it. The overnight dip had stopped short of retesting Tuesday’s 2091.00 low as required by its oversold RSIs. The open’s rally attempt only reached 2106.50 before reversing down into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down target was pierced by 1 tick, taking RSIs oversold again. Its reaction attacked 2100.00, but only briefly as the close trended back down to attack the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially bouncing was resisted upon testing Tuesday night’s 2095.00 support as resistance. Suddenly plunging extended down to 2084.00. The probe under prior lows was a singular leg, so not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest. RSIs diverged positively on its retest, helping to launch a recovery that has probed more than 6 points into positive territory attacking 2099.00.
If, then…
Did last night’s drop to 2084.00 satisfy the decline targeting 2082.00? Similar to the room it has down to 2077.50, resistance above it begins at 2084.50. Its test last night would qualify. If retested, the objective would target the noise range’s 2077.50 lower-end. In any case, isolating the probe of fresh trend lows to the overnight window — as is currently indicated by having recovered into positive territory — could begin a multi-session momentum reversal back up. Just in time for tomorrow’s Employment Situation report. But anything more than retesting yesterday’s oversold RSIs at its low must be avoided, if not negative territory altogether.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.00 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2101.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2091.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.