Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.50 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2107.00 | 2101.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2093.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2088.00 | 2082.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The ongoing series of lower intraday lows persisted Wednesday, with yet another lower close, as well. Keeping the decline intact had been maintained by oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 2091.00 low. Oversold RSIs accompanied Wednesday’s 2087.75 low — which formed when retesting Tuesday’s low and fulfilling Wednesday’s 2088.00 bias-down target. It’s a circle of life that keeps the decline intact.
And the decline is targeting 2082.00 with room down to 2077.50. Testing the lower target(s) Thursday before Friday’s payrolls would allow a reaction up to greet the report in a position of strength. Not yet resolving the lower attraction could force a resolution down. The most bullish scenario might be to gap up Thursday and ignore the lower attractions altogether.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… No RSI left behind!
Fresh lows stuck under prior highs.
The noon hour’s consolidation above 2097.00 started breaking lower coming out of the noon hour. Bouncing off of 2092.00 blipped up to 2097.00 in reaction to the FOMC statement. Blipping-up then blapped down, aggressively, to 2087.25.
That fulfilled the 2088.00 bias-down target. And a steep recovery from there exited the bias environment back above its 2093.50 bias-down signal to attack 2100.00. Now 2093.50 is being retested at the final hour’s entry.
Oversold RSIs at the 2087.25 low require an eventual retest, probably down to 2082.00, with room down to 2077.50. Unless 2098.00 were recovered quickly, extending above 2100.00 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window, the low’s retest is likely.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday extended through the 1.1100 target, which must now hold as support to maintain the upside momentum.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up extended through the 1304.00 target for a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is now required.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up trended higher intraday, and produced a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is now required..
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight to gap up Wednesday morning above the 163-02 bounce limit was retraced almost immediately to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Another rally intraday attacked the overnight highs, and “higher prior lows” at 163-27. All of which developed prior to the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking sharply lower again Wednesday probed under the 45.70 target. Already extending down to the ultimate 43.25 target is difficult after trending so far so recently. But it is likely so long as 45.70 holds as resistance.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh low had fulfilled the decline’s structural objective, to its 2.87 calculable objective, and price reacted up from there intraday. None of which prevented Wednesday’s gap down under prior lows. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, other than for the potential of forming an Island reversal pattern.
Mid-day Update… Stuck in the muddle.
Post-open reversal down hasn’t recovered, with FOMC looming.
This morning’s 2100.50 bias-down signal held its test to signal no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2109.50 bias-up signal. Attacking it to 2106.50 does not satisfy it.
It could have been rejected by breaking under 2100.50 by 10:30, but it was still being overlapped. Probed, but overlapped. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2094.75 bias-down target could have invalidated it, too. But despite the bias environment developing under the opening range, it didn’t trend down to the bias-down target, let alone break it.
A test of this morning’s 2109.50 bias-up signal has become “unfinished business above” that requires eventual test.
Meanwhile, an opportunity to isolate the bias environment’s dip was not exploited. Exiting the noon hour and entering the afternoon’s bias environment above a prior high like 2102.50 may yet trap shorts. Otherwise, fresh lows at 2093.50 are likely, and a retest of yesterday’s 2091.00 low would likely break lower to 2082.00 or deeper.
The FOMC policy statement is a wild card. A negative reaction is likely since pessimism hasn’t been fulfilled or rejected — price simply remains depressed. The statement isn’t likely to raise rates, but it is likely to speak in hawkish tones. There’s reason for a knee-jerk reaction down, and little reason not to recover it.