Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: One or two staggered post-open reports have a track record of influencing price action. Afternoon trending will be difficult as the three-day weekend’s illiquidity draws nearer.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Bond market early close
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.75 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2091.50 | 2083.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.50 | 2069.00 |
| …would target | 2072.00 | 2063.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Delayed start.
Choppy post-open action.
Congestion around the 2065.00 bias-up signal gradually resolved down to 2061.00. Its reaction up overlapped the 2065.00 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Its reaction down toward 2061.00 triggered late no-bias.
The bias-up signal was touched again 1 minute later. Just 1 minute earlier would have triggered noN-bias. Buy signals would be valid. Retesting overnight highs up to 2077.00 would be likely.
The market is ignoring the 1 minute difference. NoN-bias wouldn’t have put into play the 2071.00 bias-up target. It is being probed now by 1 point.
No-bias would require retesting the 2065.00 bias-up signal. That would make it difficult to trend much higher this morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Rallying 17 points since Europe’s opens, from 2056.50 up to 2073.75, has been retraced by 61.8% down to 2062.50. That’s bouncing a little now, but dipping much lower much past the open would start to suggest this morning won’t rally. Otherwise, overnight lows will likely be retested up to 2077.00
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Exuberance, of some sort.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted by another single-minded relentless overnight rally from 2027.00 to 2044.00. Its resolution had to differ from the prior day, so it gapped up and trended up through every timing window. The bias environment exit and final hour entry each were overlapping their prior timing window highs. Extending to fresh highs at 2064.50 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window was the cash session high. The futures close firmed to fresh highs at 2067.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
As if the relentless rally couldn’t get any more odd, post-close buyback announcements by a bevy of big banks triggered a surge that attacked 2075.00 — all during maintenance. Globex re-opened at 2072.00-2073.00 and trended down to 2056.50 through Europe’s opens. Rallying since then has retraced back up to fresh highs. At least, probing the open up to 2073.75, while the maintenance high lies 1 point higher.
If, then…
Wednesday’s rally came within 3 ticks of Friday morning’s post-open bounce high at 2064.75. That’s natural resistance. That’s also a 61.8% retracement of the drop from Thursday’s 2019.50 post-close high. Which is also natural resistance. These independent resistance levels can be probed intraday to any degree — like 2077.00 — but closing negative would confirm this rally has been only a temporary corrective bounce, perhaps the product of quarter-end window dressing, and that it has ended. And that would confirm Friday and Monday’s trend change signal. Regardless, the rally is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip, as it has been since Monday’s close..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2061.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2065.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2067.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2075.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2071.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2077.00.