Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2073.50 | 2065.00 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2071.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.00 | 2057.50 |
| …would target | 2059.50 | 2051.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s rally came within 3 ticks of Friday morning’s post-open bounce high at 2064.75. Intraday patterns had independently targeted just 1 tick higher. The futures close probed both up to 2067.25. That’s natural resistance.
That’s 85 points off of Monday morning (and afternoon) 1981.50 lows. It’s also a 61.8% retracement of the drop from Thursday’s 2019.50 post-close high. That’s natural resistance.
The rally is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip. Just add that vulnerability to the list of potentially bearish catalysts ignored this since Monday’s close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Gravitational pull.
Relentless rally day attacking “higher prior lows.”
Today’s session is behaving like a “session long rally.” Which is interesting, because there was no setup for it. 
But every timing window has probed the prior timing window’s high.
There just hasn’t been an exception. Even if price were to reverse down aggressively and plunge, this last timing window of the day has already probed fresh highs. Even the noon hour probed fresh highs, and that’s usually the exception.
No exceptions today, as the rally is relentless.
One sell signal was pierced during at the noon hour’s exit, and it was minimally productive. Otherwise, massive uplegs have defined the session.
Already coming to within 3 ticks of the highest objective at 2065.00 has created potential for reversing down to the 2057.00 area. The rally has gained traction, so a dip would likely settle in the noon hour’s range.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday to test Tuesday’s gap probably only delays the inevitable retest of recent lows, since Tuesday’s reaction down had stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up didn’t immediately recover the 1329.60 that would have served by proxy to invalidate Tuesday’s close under the 1322.40. pullback limit. But it doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway to retest last Thursday’s 1363.00 overnight spike high.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday’s open easily retested Thursday night’s spike high, presumably still targeting 18.80 so long as 18.00 now holds as support.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having fulfilled the requirement to retest last Thursday nights 173-25 high Tuesday, it’s interesting that overnight action only ranged narrowly while stocks rallied sharply. The excuse for a pullback was ignored, as it was Wednesday while stocks rallied even more sharply. The 174-26 target remains intact.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s late surge extended higher overnight, and then also intraday Wednesday into and out of a bullish EIA report. Closing back under 48.35 would signal the upside momentum was lapsing, which might allow raising the sell signal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday was reversed back into the rally’s 2.86-2.91 target area that had been fulfilled Tuesday. This rally leg has extended considerably without only shallow pullbacks, so Wednesday’s key-reversal is more vulnerable to reversing down. But Wednesday’s gap up above all prior highs will want to be filled.
Mid-day Update… Digestion.
Consolidating this morning’s rally.
Resistance at 2053.50 was only a temporary obstacle before extending to the next higher objective at 2055.50. Its resistance was limited to a brief 2-point reaction down. The rally easily extnded into a noon hour peak attacking 2060.00.
Dipping to 2054.00 prevented the afternoon’s 2058.75 bias-up signal from triggering. The no-bias environment is ranging narrowly.
Resuming this morning’s rally is this afternoon’s least likely resolution. Just hovering at the highs is likelier, or else trending back down through the 2044.00 open.
If trending up is least likely, then trending up would likely be done very aggressively. Fading a fresh high would be credible, but be sure not to get caught short if the high isn’t quickly rejected.