Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 30, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s post-open PMI is released privately to institutional clients before its public release. Usually, any price reaction to the private release will be duplicated at the public release. The afternoon’s Fed speaker is a recent convert from Hawk to Dove, so a favorable knee-jerk reaction to his comments may be largely discounted by the time he speaks (while another conversion won’t be).
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2067.5 | 2058.75 |
| …would target | 2073.75 | 2065.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2058.50 | 2049.75 |
| …would target | 2052.25 | 2043.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Pandemic.
US market follows overseas lead higher.
Being greeted similarly to yesterday, this morning’s open was likely to resolve differently. Whichever the direction, it should include immediate post-open aggression.
The open spiked up several points to fresh highs testing 2047.00. Its 5-point reaction down to 2042.25 was probably due to news that a JFK terminal was being evacuated.
Absorbing the news quickly recovered to the opening high. And that eventually broke higher to now test 2052.50. Overbought RSIs make any pullback likely to recover.
The next higher objective above 2050.50 is 2055.50, with a potential obstacle at 2053.50. This morning’s bias environment’s higher and higher highs already differs from yesterday, which only trended back down.
Sellers aren’t necessarily marginalized this afternoon, which is actually a little likelier to range sideways than to retrace — and least likely to extend the rally. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 2046.50 or 2044.50 before suggesting momentum is already reversing down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Yet another single-minded relentless overnight rally. Yet higher highs greeting this morning’s open, now testing 2045.00.
Similar setups that appear sequentially tend to resolve differently. Yesterday’s open hovered momentarily, and then surged into the bias environment, which retraced back down to fresh post-open lows. So, this morning’s action should either trend up immediately and relentlessly, or else trend down exclusively.
None of which speaks to degree — don’t be too quick to fade early trending, not without a target being met and technicals not confirming.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Still ticking.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Extending Monday night’s single-minded relentless rally higher became likely by not yet attempting to reject halfway through Tuesday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility, Its correction never reversed the trend back down, opening the door to another upleg when the afternoon bias environment began lapsing.
Overnight action’s new info…
Except for dipping initially to 2022.75, another single-minded relentless rally has developed overnight. Most recently, a surge up to 2043.25 tested the resistance of Friday afternoon’s last relative high. The surge is now being retraced back down to its 2038.00 origin.
If, then…
London’s FTSE has retraced almost all of its Brexit drop. The gap back to Thursday’s close may not yet be filled, but the session’s “higher prior lows” have been tested. Its natural resistance coincides with peak liquidity, when strong hands position for the weekend’s illiquidity — which has more relevance ahead of the three-day US holiday weekend. Catalysts for at least attempting another downleg are growing, which is to say that more and more bearish catalysts have been ignored since Monday’s low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2039.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2041.25 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2032.00 would be likely to trigger the 2034.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2031.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.