Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2044.00 | 2034.75 |
| …would target | 2050.25 | 2041.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2030.25 | 2021.25 |
| …would target | 2023.50 | 2014.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s intraday rally wasn’t single-minded, but it extended sharply higher anyway. Another similarity is that the overnight rally greeted Tuesday’s open back up at Monday’s open, which is natural resistance. Similarly, Tuesday’s intraday rally greeted the overnight session by filling the gap back up to Friday’s cash session close.
Slight differences, but still similar influences that enable a path to reversing down. More so now, Tuesday’s rally gained no traction for its effort, and “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the gap back to Monday’s close.
One of those near-term potential bearish influences is distribution ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.That would seem to limit Wednesday’s upside, if not serve as a catalyst to trending back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Late re-bloomer.
Sideways ranging breaks higher.
The noon hour had ranged within the bias environment’s 2018.00-2006.00 pullback. The bias environment dipped a little deeper within the range. Then the bias environment started lapsing.
Surging from 2011.00 has probed fresh highs up to 2024.50. Overbought 3-minute and 1-minute RSIs make any reaction down likely to recover for at least a retest of the high.
Now the question is whether the rally can gain traction for its effort. Entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high still needs confirmation, but trending up through the 3:10-3:20 window. Probing fresh highs later, or not holding fresh highs through 3:20, could trend back down into the close.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday was immediately reversed, albeit only to attack or to fill the gap back down to Monday’s close, and not yet to trend to fresh lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness had initially held a test of the 1322.00 pullback limit, but a rally leg never gained traction so Tuesday afternoon action dipped a little deeper to test 1311.00. Immediately recovering 1329.50 would resume the rally back to Thursday night’s 1362.60 high.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking 17.60 overnight held and reacted up to try resuming the rally. A slightly deeper test reacted up intraday to test 17.84 resistance.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs touched Thursday night’s 173-25 prior high that had required a retest, which is still likely to include a visit to 174-24, now so long as 172-14 holds as support.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing overnight to 47.80 held resistance at Wednesday’s “higher prior lows” before reversing back down to test a new sell signal at 46.75.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday tried to produce the new high close that had become required by last week’s confirmed breakout, while probing the next higher resistance area at 2.86-2.91. The vulnerability to reacting down is based on there now being no unfinished business above outstanding, and only a shallow base with no pullback having launched the current leg.
Mid-day Update… Hung up.
Locked into a sideways range.
The overnight rally had extended through the open up to 2018.00. It was already dipping into the bias timing window at 10:15. The bias environment trended down to 2006.00.
That leg has since contained price action.
Bouncing through the noon hour touched the afternoon’s 2015.75 bias-up signal, stopping short of the high. Bias-up didn’t signal, and now a reaction down to 2009.00 is pausing short of the morning’s lows.
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour’s 2016.00 high would be vulnerable to trending up through the close. Similarly, exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under this morning’s 2006.00 low could fill the gap back to yesterday’s 1991.00 close.