Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t high-profile. Only EIA has a reliable track record for influencing price action. But the lack of other reports might give the housing sector more leverage in case it were to surprise.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2025.00 | 2015.75 |
| …would target | 2030.00 | 2020.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2015.00 | 2005.75 |
| …would target | 2008.50 | 1999.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Second wind.
Opening surge extends overnight rally.
Single-minded relentless overnight trending is always vulnerable to reversing at the open. Indeed, it often does. But rejection should be obvious before getting halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Still hanging on then, or already extending, makes another leg likely.
The pre-open dip greeted the cash session at 2010.00, fewer than 2 points under the high. Hovering there lasted almost half the opening 15 minutes before finally resolving. And having avoided rejection for that long, extending the prevailing trend became likely.
Fresh highs were likely to pierce 2018.00. It was tested and retested, but 2018.25 was touched only by an errant tick. Now a reaction down has is attacking the 2010.00 open.
Can the pullback extend to probe fresh post-open lows through the bias environment exit? That would undermine the post-open attempt to extend the overnight trending. Reversing the entire rally today would still be possible, but not required.
Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in rally mode could entrench the rally through tomorrow morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally extended to attack 2012.00, now dipping to its prior high testing 2008.00. That’s a lot of buying pressure since yesterday’s 1991.00 cash session close, and it’s still only testing yesterday morning’s opening highs. Meanwhile, single-minded relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to reversing at the open, so we should know shortly whether today is or isn’t one of those days.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… There’s that bounce.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night had gapped down to 2014.00 and Monday’s open was even lower at 2011.00. Thursday night’s limit-down at 1999.00 was soon tested on the way down to 1981.50, taking RSIs oversold. A 15-point bounce was retraced to retest the low’s oversold RSIs, neutralizing the attraction below. Meanwhile, sellers didn’t gain traction for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing at the Globex open extended back up to and through Monday afternoon’s 1996.50 high, and higher to 2006.00. It’s consolidation down to 2000.00 resolved up momentarily to 2008.75, still fluctuating choppily around 2006.00.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s bias-up held instead of triggering, so potential up to 2003.50 was never tested. The retest of yesterday’s 2001.50 low has been more successful, probing the target overnight by up to 5 points. Regardless of its timing or overlap, that was always likely to be only a temporary corrective leg. Friday’s trend change signal was confirmed Monday, so a corrective bounce is not unusual before at least one more lower close fulfills the signal’s minimum requirement. Retesting yesterday’s low remains likely, whether to start forming a more durable bottom, or on the way toward oblivion. Gapping up will create a gap back down to yesterday’s close needing to be filled eventually. And trending up relentlessly overnight is vulnerable to being reversed at the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2006.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2003.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 would be likely to trigger the 1997.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.