Posts by Rod David

Afternoon Bias

By Rod David | November 2, 2015 - 11:58 am

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)	SPX	ES
Bias-up: above	2095.25	2088.50
…would target	2101.25	2094.50
Bias-down: under	2087.25	2080.50
…would target	2081.50	2074.75
Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP		FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Posted in Bias-parameters, S&P

Post-open Review… Ahead of itself.

By Rod David | November 2, 2015 - 10:19 am

Overnight recovery extends through the open.

The open held a test of 2076.00 as support and extended higher to test the 2084.50 bias-up target. Despite probing it up to 2085.50, the bias-up target held through 10:15. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met.

Usually, that tends to be the morning’s high. It’s still a bias-up, so attempt to reverse down should fail or be limited. And being a bias-up, extending higher is possible.

So long as the bias environment doesn’t begin lapsing at 11:30 under a relevant level like 2076.00 — preferably not under the 2079.50 bias-up signal — the recovery can retest last week’s highs.

Posted in Post-open Review, S&P

Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)

By Rod David | November 2, 2015 - 9:14 am

The overnight recovery’s consolidation was resisted by 2076.00. That’s Friday’s last relative low which had preceded its last-minute plunge. Now the consolidation has broken higher pre-open to attack this morning’s 2079.50 bias-up signal as resistance. Extending the recovery intraday can’t afford much delay or dip, not without simply repeating Friday’s last-minute plunge.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpkkmt

Posted in Pre-market Tour, S&P

The First Trade… Breaking out of a cage.

By Rod David | November 2, 2015 - 7:39 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s rally had fulfilled the rally’s 2088.00 objective, probing it by nearly 7 points. Its reaction down had greeted Friday’s open at Thursday morning’s 2084.50 high. Extending down to 2077.50 was recovered through the noon hour to test 2088.00 for the first time intraday. The balance of the afternoon fell to fresh lows testing and retesting 2076.00. A very last-minute plunge slid to 2069.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s last-minute plunge wasn’t rejected. Not immediately. Rather, Sunday night’s open extended the slide down to 2066.00. Lower lows eventually touched 2064.25, but a rally at Europe’s opens recovered back up to 2076.00. But no higher as of yet, hovering there for a couple of hours.

If, then…
The overnight low bottomed upon testing this morning’s 2064.50 bias-down target. Despite neutralizing its attraction, the rally’s 2088.00 objective need not be retested intraday. Extending back down immediately is more possible if no gap is left outstanding. So, retracing all of Friday’s late plunge may only prevent a gap from inhibiting an intraday decline. The open must recover more than 2076.00 before beginning to suspect momentum is reversing back up. Momentum reversing back up would likely target a retest of Thursday night’s 2094.75 high.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2080.50 would be likely to trigger the 2079.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2075.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2071.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2069.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.