Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Nov 2 2015…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Let’s revisit the Canadian stocks mentioned previously (OGRMF, SPRWF, TWMJF). They had formed 3-day surges, which tends to mark significant near-term momentum peaks. In fact, their price action reacted down considerably from there.
Another trait of the 3-day surge is that recovering its peak is very bullish. The assumption is that the impatient buyers who created the froth have been corrected. These stocks ended the week probing their surge peaks.
Probing, or retesting? Overlapping. Extending higher through Monday’s close would confirm the breaks higher underway, and new uplegs developing. Otherwise, the surge highs will more likely hold their retest. Reversing down isn’t mandatory, but at least a delay to rallying would be.
Among the sector, only one other new issue is timely, PMCB, which has formed a massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. We’ll review the chart during Livestox.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for November 2, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 10.00% |
| trends* | # flat: | 17 | 17.00% |
| # down: | 73 | 73.00% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.150 | down |
| ARNA | 1.650 | 2.200 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.240 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | down |
| BTFL | 0.011 | 0.059 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.440 | 0.740 | down |
| CANN | 0.600 | 1.330 | flat |
| CANV | 0.795 | 1.160 | flat |
| CARA | 14.250 | 18.870 | down |
| CBDS | 0.510 | 1.850 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.300 | 0.590 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.012 | 0.026 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.078 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.130 | 3.390 | up |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 71.600 | 86.400 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 21.250 | 27.350 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.140 | 0.205 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| MDBX | 0.062 | 0.150 | flat |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.008 | 0.025 | down |
| MINE | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.020 | 0.035 | down |
| MNTR | 0.310 | 0.620 | down |
| MSRT | 1.410 | 1.880 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | up |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.390 | 0.520 | up |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.009 | 0.019 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.053 | 0.121 | down |
| PMCB | 0.095 | 0.140 | flat |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.180 | 0.230 | up |
| SRNA | 0.100 | 0.185 | flat |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.055 | down |
| TAUG | 0.003 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.075 | 0.013 | flat |
| TRTC | 0.088 | 0.129 | down |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.910 | 2.200 | up |
| UPOT | 0.040 | 0.125 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.001 | 0.038 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.170 | 0.550 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 1.300 | 1.850 | up |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/31/15) …
Another objective met by the rally. Is it only a correction of August’s plunge, intending to resume the bear market? Would probing new highs change that scenario? What would put into play new highs? These questions were addressed, and more, including observations and questions among attendees.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BIDU, BABA, AAPL, DIS, GG, MHG, FB, SCTY, BLK, GLPI, VRX, CBI, DVA, X, UA, PANW, ABTL
10/31/2015 09:31:22 Steve: gm
10/31/2015 09:31:24 Josey: All good
10/31/2015 09:31:25 Rod David: Testing?
10/31/2015 09:31:27 SM: good
10/31/2015 09:31:32 David B: Good Morning
10/31/2015 09:32:56 Mark Glezer: gm
10/31/2015 09:37:47 SM: Why is 2094 NOT a Globex Trend Extreme (which requires retest)?
10/31/2015 09:39:33 Mark Glezer: retracement of FOMC within a week is a requirement this time?
10/31/2015 09:56:18 Mark Glezer: lower prior high u mentioned under 2050 & prior low indicating the end of the corrective leg around 2010?
10/31/2015 09:56:46 MK: there was a super interesting comment from someone
10/31/2015 09:56:55 MK: regarding a year end ramp
10/31/2015 09:57:01 MK: similar to 1972
10/31/2015 09:57:30 MK: when people rallied behind the “Nifty Fify” big cap stocks that were “One Decision” = buy em and forget em
10/31/2015 09:57:56 MK: and everything fell apart
10/31/2015 09:58:32 MK: but he’s saying hes not 100% on a straight up ramp, but a prolonged rally as the “paid-to-play” are worried about Year end positioning
10/31/2015 09:58:55 MK: IE a client asking “why don’t you own MCD, NKE, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG”
10/31/2015 09:59:05 MK: so they are worried
10/31/2015 09:59:14 MK: and he thinks the only thing stopping the market doing this
10/31/2015 09:59:36 MK: is a legitimate news event that the robots and the “paid to pay” people can acnowledge as major
10/31/2015 10:00:37 MK: IMO. I think that the first couple weeks of NOV will let us know as most funds fiscal were end of Oct so either that theory has played out, or it will continue to prodive a bid into year end
10/31/2015 10:00:54 Mark Glezer: spoke to my friend, portfolio manager at a hedge fund on Wed. He is expecting a huge move down to happen soon but not necessarily this week, likely the next one
10/31/2015 10:01:56 MK: Mark, the positioning and bids i see in SKEW indicate there are large players that coincide with your friends theory
10/31/2015 10:02:17 Mark Glezer: :)
10/31/2015 10:03:22 ljr: stocks: bidi, baba, fb, scty, vrx ( no positions , looking for short or long entries except vrx just watching that show)
10/31/2015 10:03:34 ljr: sorry bidu
10/31/2015 10:04:15 David B: and options on 11/20
10/31/2015 10:04:48 David B: yes
10/31/2015 10:06:02 David B: AAPL,DIS
10/31/2015 10:06:37 MK: GG
10/31/2015 10:07:41 MK: MHG
10/31/2015 10:08:23 MK: BLK
10/31/2015 10:09:01 MK: GLPI
10/31/2015 10:09:10 MK: CBI
10/31/2015 10:09:29 MK: DVA
10/31/2015 10:09:35 MK: PANW
10/31/2015 10:09:52 MK: ABTL (SHORT)
10/31/2015 10:16:50 David B: dis earnings this week. is it not going in on strength?
10/31/2015 10:19:43 MK: that was earnings
10/31/2015 10:19:47 MK: for Goldcorp
10/31/2015 10:19:56 MK: they did a weird restructuring of an asset
10/31/2015 10:20:02 MK: that had no real negative
10/31/2015 10:20:09 MK: effect other than accounting
10/31/2015 10:20:47 ljr: will watch recording for stocks. thx
10/31/2015 10:22:46 MK: sweet call btw
10/31/2015 10:22:50 MK: got out a bunch at 13.75
10/31/2015 10:24:12 MK: any higher targets?
10/31/2015 10:24:19 MK: or shoudl i just call it a good trade
10/31/2015 10:25:16 MK: meh
10/31/2015 10:25:22 MK: not really good enough
10/31/2015 10:25:25 MK: i pare somre more off
10/31/2015 10:31:29 MK: yes
10/31/2015 10:31:39 MK: ok
10/31/2015 10:36:42 MK: I just bougth at 44.75
10/31/2015 10:37:15 MK: is extending higher
10/31/2015 10:39:50 David B: X,UA
10/31/2015 10:46:39 David B: i think a reaction
10/31/2015 10:48:34 Mark Glezer: anything interesting among major indexes?
10/31/2015 10:50:43 David B: UA earnings was on 10/22
10/31/2015 10:50:52 David B: can you go back for a minute
10/31/2015 10:51:12 MK: i’m short from 22
10/31/2015 10:52:48 Mark Glezer: k thx
10/31/2015 10:53:19 David B: no
10/31/2015 10:54:14 Mark Glezer: any specific down target on UA?
10/31/2015 10:54:31 Mark Glezer: k
10/31/2015 10:54:57 MK: have a good weekend
10/31/2015 10:55:00 Mark Glezer: thx much
10/31/2015 10:55:07 David B: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.50 | 2079.50 |
| …would target | 2090.50 | 2084.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.00 | 2071.00 |
| …would target | 2070.50 | 2064.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s 2075.50 bias-down target had become “unfinished business below.” It was fulfilled going into the final hour, and held 1-2 more tests during the final hour. Then a last-minute plunge broke lower to 2070.00.
The last-minute plunge is not predictive, since it originated after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close (3:57 ET). The plunge was deep, but it was singular, and it was still overlapping 2075.50 instead of breaking it.
Retesting Thursday night’s 2094.75 high all but requires immediately rejecting Friday’s last-minute plunge Monday. Having fulfilled the rally’s 2088.00 objective without closing above it, probing above its resistance would be vulnerable to holding again. Not immediately rejecting Friday’s last-minute plunge could get November off to a rocky start.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbttft
I’ll send links to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.