Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Deadline met.
Air pocket plunges to fresh session lows.
This afternoon’s 2084.50 bias-up signal was invalidated. It was productive after 1:20, all the way up to 2088.25. But the signal’s last relative low at 2082.50 was retraced as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. There is no unfinished business above.
The retracement was part of the air pocket described in the prior blog post. Triggered under the 2084.00 area, its follow-through has barely hesitated on the way to probing fresh session lows.
That probe has come within 2-3 ticks of fulfilling this morning’s “unfinished business below” at its 2075.50 bias-down target. Meanwhile, 1-minute RSI diverged positively. There is no unfinished business bellow.
Trending down to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could be very bearish for next week. Otherwise, drifting higher into the close would not have any predictive value.
Daily Spot… Pre-weekend jockeying.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction to Wednesday’s plunge extended higher Friday to attack 1.1080, which is the maximum bounce limit. The balance of the session trended back down, presumably to fulfill the required retest of Wednesday’s low.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s probe under 1150.00 support extended deeper into Friday’s open to eventually test the next lower support at 1138.50. Closing back above 1150.00 would now signal the decline had ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s breakout under the multi-session range wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Friday. That’s not a buy signal, but back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A second consecutive lower close Friday would have confirmed Thursday’s plunge had reversed the trend down. But the bounce didn’t recover what is now resistance at 156-18.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s retest of Thursday’s probe above 46.00 up to 46.75 had held intraday, keeping the bounce’s momentum vulnerable to being reversed as the decline resumes. Post-close action did probe higher, but any early selling pressure Monday would be credible for resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s close above 2.31 fulfilled the minimum requirement to suggest momentum may be reversing up. Extending above 2.37 Friday is still needed to confirm.
Mid-day Update… Missed connections.
Bias-down dissed, but not dismissed.
This morning’s 2080.50 bias-down signal triggered. The bias environment didn’t extend down any deeper than its pre-10:15 2077.50 low. Bouncing to 2080.50 at 1030 didn’t invalidate the bias-down
But the bias-down environment was never any more productive before it began lapsing, back at the 2080.50 signal. So, its 2075.50 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below,” which requires being tested eventually.
None of which has prevented an interim rally that triggered the 2084.50 bias-up signal. And that has extended to fresh session highs testing 2088.00. The 2090.75 bias-up target is in-play, but there may be an air pocket under the 2084.00 area that slides to fresh session lows.
This being a Friday, the last timing window is more vulnerable to trending. Entering the final hour above 2088.00 could attack the 2095.00 overnight highs into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 2, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three high-profile reports start the week, but only ISM has a reliable track record of influencing price action.
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.75 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2097.00 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.50 | 2079.25 |
| …would target | 2080.00 | 2073.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.