Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Sleepwalking.
Overnight highs ignored by post-open action.
The pre-open reaction down from 2088.00 greeted the open back at yesterday morning’s 2084.50 high. Trending down to 2077.50 has triggered the 2080.50 bias-down signal, putting into play a test of the 2075.50 bias-down target.
All of which might be invalidated.
Recovering the 2080.50 bias-down signal through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled at 10:15, since whatever was signaled at 10:15 hasn’t yet been any more productive than before 10:15.
In fact, a bounce is now testing 2080.50. Still overlapping 2080.50 at 10:30 would not qualify as invalidating it. Back under 2079.00 would signal the bounce had failed, and bias-down it is. And while its target is near, its recovery would not be required.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
2088.00 is met. Probing above it overnight to 2094.75 has reacted down to 2083.50. A pre-open bounce tested 2088.00 as resistance. Tested, and retested it, while both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged negatively. The reaction down is testing 2084.25.
Quickly recovering through 2088.00 post-open could neutralize sellers, if that recovery wasn’t itself quickly rejected, duplicating the overnight pattern. But extending this pre-open dip any lower first would have limited time to recover, or else the morning could trend down relentlessly.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkjcyc
The First Trade… Rally meets another objective.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s sideways ranging consolidated Wednesday’s FOMC surge. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory was pessimistic, but not trending down made that “ineffectual pessimism.” The morning’s touch of 2084.50 resistance was probed momentarily by 2 points before the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
It didn’t take long for the rally’s 2088.00 objective to be met. Its resistance held for 90 minutes before extending higher to 2094.75 through midnight. The balance of the session has drifted back down to test yesterday’s highs as support at 2082.50.
If, then…
Probing new highs — new highs above the year’s earlier pre-crash highs — would require overcoming 2088.00. Not just probing it overnight or intraday, but closing above it. And then closing above it again on the second consecutive session. But if 2088.00 satisfies this rally, then regardless of how high it is probed overnight or intraday, the close should be back below it. And the rejection of probing above it should be acute, spending only nominal time attracting weak-handed buyers before reversing down sharply. The bearish scenario presumes it is weak-handed buyers who have been pushing price higher impatiently, and would sooner exit than defend against a reversal down. Without repeating the overnight test of 2088.00, then closing under yesterday’s 2073.00-2075.00 lows could signal its rejection already underway.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2077.00 would be likely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.75 | 2088.50 |
| …would target | 2099.75 | 2093.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.75 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2081.25 | 2075.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Market Wrap was held a half-hour early Thursday and I was unavailable at the close. The bias environment exit and final hour entry had not indicated any sponsorship was gaining traction. The vulnerability remained to the upside anyway, and the last hour rallied from 2079.00 to probe at least 2 points above the morning’s 2084.50 high. And to well within 2 points of the rally’s 2088.00 objective. Late rally and all but neutralizing a big attraction, without having gained traction. Friday should be fun.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvrxpw
[And here’s the link to Thursday’s pre-market Tour recording]
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc