Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… And an important notice.
Early Market Wrap at 3:30pm ET.
Today’s Market Wrap will be a half-hour early, before the close, at 3:30pm ET.
One prior recording link has finally arrived, if you’re still interested: Wednesday post-close Wrap. [Today’s pre-open Tour is still missing.)
The vulnerability remains up. Upside potential is outstanding to 2088.00. And sellers missed several opportunities to reverse momentum down.
But vulnerability to the upside is not a buy signal. Especially when sponsorship seems reluctant, as they are today. Both the bias environment exit and final hour entry were within the noon hour’s range. Any trending today should be obvious through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.
Livestox Recording Oct 29, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX
TWTR — still testing 28 pullback limit, room to 27, above 31.40 = 34
INSY — recent timely pick at 21.25, now probing its 27.35 resistamce
CARA — bounce potential remains intact at 17.75
GPRO — will monitor a close above 28 that would suggest bottoming
TSLA — pattern remains bearish
AAPL — 122 area should be peak of corrective bounce
TWMJF, SPRWF, OGRMF — 3-rd-day surges holding
CANV — recent pick that has been firming slowly
GWPH — 74.85 targeted for potential bottoming
FEYE — request, nothing bullish yet
ELY — request, attracting longer-term
FOLD — request
USO –Temporary bounce on the way back to prior lows
GLD — Potential support at 109.95 being tested
Daily Spot… Bonds and Gold join hands.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge from its 1.1100 bounce limit had dropped deeply to fulfill the minimum outstanding requirement. Gaping up Thursday and ranging exclusively in positive territory suggests as much, although a retest of Wednesday’s low would be needed to begin forming a bottom.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had become likely to extend to at least test 1150.00, which was done Thursday down to 1146.00. Closing back above 115.00 would signal the decline had ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction that plunged back down to 15.85 support extended down Thursday. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum had reversed down. Back above 15.85 would again target fresh highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Excessive optimism at Wednesday’s low was repeated at Thursday’s open, before plunging to the lowest levels in two weeks. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg is underway.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh bounce highs Thursday probed above 46.00 but did not trend up, which could have produced a second consecutive higher close that signals a bigger corrective bounce underway. Back under 45.00 would likely resume the decline.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline’s hesitation even held through Thursday’s EIA report. Through the report, but not necessarily through the day. A late dive probed fresh intraday lows at 2.25 before closing flat with Wednesday’s low. Closing back above 2.31 would start to signal the decline had ended.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 30, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Another central bank policy statement starts Friday’s high-profile, influential calendar. It ends with two Fed speakers. In between are the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence.
*BOJ policy statement
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*John Williams speaks
10:00 AM ET
*Esther George speaks
11:25 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.75 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2095.75 | 2089.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.00 | 2076.75 |
| …would target | 2078.25 | 2071.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.