Posts by Rod David
Livestox today!
Thursday’s Livestox begins at 12:15pm ET. Dress is optional. You might want to put on a shirt, you’re scaring the children. And please wear pants, you’re scaring the cat.
We’ll review CARA which may be forming a corrective bounce, INSY which is up 33% in the past week since announcing its corrective bounce, CANV which continues firming, and more.
Add stock requests to this blog’s comments section. If you cannot attend, the recording will be available later today.
Login here by 12:15.
Post-open Review… Which is square-one?
Rallying out of the open. And, then, not.
The overnight pullback had been consolidating around this morning’s 2077.25 bias-down signal. The open printed it and began extending higher. Ultimately the 2084.50 bias-up signal was touched.
And held.
The no-bias signal put into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal. But both bias signals have been tested already. So, no offsetting test is required. So, the no-bias environment should at least be defined by either bias signal if tested.
The range can be invalidated in the next several minutes. Exceeding either bias signal through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled by not yet exceeding it at 10:15. The reaction down from 2084.50 has dropped to 2078.25, and extending under the 2077.25 bias-down signal at 10:30 would invalidate no-bias.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight pullback continues to consolidate around this morning’s 2077.25 bias-down signal, where it appears the open is being greeted. Triggering it wouldn’t be surprising, as the pullback could extend down further and still barely threaten the rally’s momentum. Otherwise, holding its test would put into play a test of the bias-up signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxphrc
The First Trade… Thin air again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rallying aggressively ahead of FOMC proved overly optimistic when the policy statement was released. A 6-point surge to 2079.00 suddenly became a 23-point plunge to 2056.00. But that was recovered, entirely, and then some — by a 30-point rally to 2085.50. This satisfied the outstanding higher close put into play by last week’s confirmed breakout.
Overnight action’s new info…
An overnight drift attacking 2073.00 is probing back under each of yesterday’s highs. While price is consolidating optimistically, that range’s 2071.50 lows has yet to be touched.
If, then…
Can the reaction down from yesterday’s surge be isolated to the overnight action? Rallying from a gap down, and probing a new trend extreme could be bullish — if the recovery were maintained. Rejecting the intraday recovery could be bearish by forming a Pivot Reversal. And if that new trend extreme were to visit the rally’s next higher objective at 2088.00, then a significant top would form. Otherwise, gapping down could extend lower this morning, and still be only a temporary correction.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2074.00 would be likely to trigger the 2077.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2068.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2070.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2080.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s two shallow pullbacks at the open and during the noon hour reflected excessive optimism. Their interim rally had triggered bias-up and fulfilled it, but extended higher anyway. It doesn’t get much more optimistic than that.
Maybe a little bit more optimistic. A 6-point surge into the FOMC news touched a fresh high at 2079.00. Suddenly all of that optimism was sorely missed, just when it was needed most. Price plunged easily to fresh session lows at 2055.50. One brief, deep correction doesn’t offset excessive optimism, but it helps. And the balance of the session rallied to new highs at 2085.25.
Last Thursday’s confirmed breakout required an eventual third higher close. That’s now done. The rally’s next higher objective after closing above 2055.00 was 2088.00. That’s not done. But now testing 2088.00 intraday can reverse down durably intraday, without leaving unfinished business above.
There’s no requirement for 2088.00 to be touched, or for its touch to reverse down immediately, if at all. But there is no other “unfinished business above” in-play. It is being attacked by excessive optimism. And a lot of energy was just expended intraday in order to absorb a lot of selling pressure. The rally’s sponsorship is weak-handed and vulnerable.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbtpxj
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc