Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Greeting the week with extreme sentiment has doubled-down (or doubled-up, depending upon your perspective) by coming within 3 ticks of the 1960.00 objective’s resistance. Testing it post-open and reacting back down under 1956.00 would signal the morning’s likelihood for trending back down, at least backing-and-filling. Recovering 1957.25-1960.00 through the open could duplicate much of Friday afternoon’s rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpfjyb
The First Trade… Not beat-skipping
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Plunging on Friday’s pre-open payrolls report was sponsored by strong hands. We know this because the open maintained a gap down under Thursday afternoon’s 1891.50 low to 1883.00. But the “session-long decline” setup it had triggered was never any more productive before inverting through the bias environment’s exit. The balance of the session fulfilled that inversion above and beyond its minimum requirement — not only filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 1913.50 close, but also retracing the pre-open plunge’s 1928.50 origin, and then probing even higher to attack 1944.00. Buyers gained traction thanks to trending up through the 3:10-3:20 window to confirm the bias environment having been exited above the noon hour’s high.
Overnight action’s new info…
The prior session ended by testing 1942.00 resistance, but Sunday night’s initial weakness held 1937.00 while consolidating into midnight. A break higher was retraced back into the consolidation, and then high, now attacking 1958.00.
If, then…
Closing above the 1942.00 resistance would have put into play the next higher objective at 1960.00. Overnight action is posturing the open to potentially satisfy it. Like closing at an objective, the next timing window can extend higher if the reaction is limited in both duration and depth. But gapping up without an interim pullback from having closed AT an objective is difficult to extend higher, and at least a pullback is likelier. Especially on Mondays, when greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. So, extending higher this morning depends upon extending higher with hardly any hesitation.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1953.00 would be likely also to maintain the recovery above the 1948.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.
Sunday night’s Globex
Globex opens tonight at 6pm ET. Monitor this evening’s action in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
The Universe, week of Oct 5, 2015… Static quo.
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
There were no changes last week to the percentages of stocks in uptrends or in downtrends. That’s rare. Only two stocks required lowering their supports. That’s rare, too. No new downtrends began — which isn’t that rare, and doesn’t mean several existing downtrends weren’t extended.
Who would have thought months ago that the broader sector could be so stable while its two flagship components (GWPH, INSY) were extending deep declines? For that matter, who would have thought months ago that those two would decline.
GWPH and INSY are surely suffering the broader Biotech sector decline. That catalyst is wholly unrelated to Cannabis, but the carnage does motivate Biotech sector funds to take a more serious look around.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for October 5, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 7 | 6.93% |
| trends* | # flat: | 15 | 14.85% |
| # down: | 79 | 78.22% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.182 | down |
| ARNA | 1.490 | 2.900 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.440 | 0.740 | down |
| CANN | 0.970 | 1.330 | flat |
| CANV | 0.570 | 0.860 | down |
| CARA | 14.250 | 18.870 | down |
| CBDS | 1.630 | 2.660 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.210 | 0.380 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.078 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 2.960 | 3.160 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | flat |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 86.620 | 111.000 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 25.050 | 32.100 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | up |
| MCIG | 0.023 | 0.052 | down |
| MDBX | 0.122 | 0.181 | up |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.008 | 0.025 | down |
| MINE | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.031 | 0.042 | down |
| MNTR | 0.310 | 0.620 | down |
| MSRT | 1.410 | 1.880 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.110 | 0.310 | down |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.109 | 0.177 | down |
| PMCB | 0.080 | 0.112 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.004 | 0.008 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.082 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.100 | 0.185 | up |
| STEV | 0.049 | 0.072 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.003 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.075 | 0.013 | up |
| TRTC | 0.100 | 0.165 | flat |
| TURV | 0.630 | 0.89 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.070 | 1.280 | down |
| UPOT | 0.080 | 0.270 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.027 | 0.087 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.070 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.400 | 0.840 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.085 | 1.100 | flat |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/3/15) … High notes.
This weekend we examined the details of Friday’s inverted setup, compared and contrasted it to the prior Friday’s similar turn of events, and extrapolated out its possible implications for Monday. The bigger picture was discussed, too, including a lot of great questions and observations among attendees.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GM, SC, AMZN, NFLX, SIG, HOG, GOOGL BGCA, HD, IBKR, CBI, IBB, WYNN, LVS, GILD, FB
10/03/2015 09:31:41 David B: Good morning
10/03/2015 09:50:41 MK: because this has all happened in the same “space” seems to me like this is just a lot of noise in the range no? sponsorship hasn’t changed much… IMO
10/03/2015 09:52:35 David B: is this wasn’t a friday would we be talking about a totally different outcome?
10/03/2015 09:56:16 David B: do you think this reversal was a lot of short covering or the view is now the fed is on hold for 2015 and maybe a good part of 2016 with a possible QE down the road?.
10/03/2015 09:56:35 MK: what i mean
10/03/2015 09:56:35 MK: is
10/03/2015 09:56:39 MK: LOwer highs
10/03/2015 09:56:43 MK: and lower lows
10/03/2015 09:57:32 MK: yes
10/03/2015 09:59:59 MK: ha
10/03/2015 10:00:17 MK: mention yourslelf 30 times in the next paragraph and i’ll really laugh
10/03/2015 10:02:06 Mark Glezer: Late to the party today. Maybe the likely scenario for Mon is to gap up to 1960 & trend down from there in the context of a trend extreme?
10/03/2015 10:02:11 David B: has there been a double bottom put in with a very close test of the aug lows on tuesday?
10/03/2015 10:08:49 David B: with earnings seen upon us and the view they are not going to be good will we start to see bad news is good news and other news events that start to come out after
10/03/2015 10:11:27 Mark Glezer: is it possible that we get much higher like all time high before getting to new lows?
10/03/2015 10:12:40 David B: i think a couple of sat strategy sessions you talked about an ascending triangle and I thought you said if we saw a decline to the aug lows this would be bullish oppose to another leg up and then a drop. Is this ascending triangle off the table
10/03/2015 10:13:48 Mark Glezer: so 2000 at best might be?
10/03/2015 10:14:07 Mark Glezer: 2011.75
10/03/2015 10:16:33 David B: yes
10/03/2015 10:17:39 MK: OK STAWX
10/03/2015 10:17:45 MK: Short Ideas
10/03/2015 10:17:46 MK: GM
10/03/2015 10:17:48 MK: SC
10/03/2015 10:18:14 MK: SIG
10/03/2015 10:18:23 tom: amzn
10/03/2015 10:18:27 MK: HOG
10/03/2015 10:18:27 tom: nflx
10/03/2015 10:21:15 David B: one other question it looks like the pattern we are seeing today look similiar to aug 2011 and then in oct after testing those lows we rallied pretty substanially. Do you see similarities and we could resolve the same way and if we don’t that we have much much further to fall?
10/03/2015 10:22:22 MK: ok
10/03/2015 10:22:33 MK: funamentally both those plays are on Rising rates
10/03/2015 10:22:39 MK: same with hog
10/03/2015 10:22:45 MK: so if that thesis is thrown out
10/03/2015 10:22:49 MK: these acutally look like buys
10/03/2015 10:23:35 MK: IBKR (L)
10/03/2015 10:25:05 tom: ok thx
10/03/2015 10:28:04 tom: nflx hardly moved yesterday but reports eanings on the 14th and implied volatility is huge on Oct 15 options which should support price
10/03/2015 10:28:07 David B: just going back to the aug lows around 1857 and tuesday low of 1861 isn’t the spread between the futures and cash different at those times so how you can make a distinction it was not equivalent test?
10/03/2015 10:28:29 MK: ok moving on
10/03/2015 10:29:25 MK: ok
10/03/2015 10:29:41 MK: HD (S)
10/03/2015 10:30:47 Mark Glezer: Rod, did u mention your schedule for Wed night in NYC?
10/03/2015 10:30:48 MK: no
10/03/2015 10:30:52 MK: IBKR (L)
10/03/2015 10:30:54 MK: HD(S)
10/03/2015 10:31:25 MK: CBI (L)
10/03/2015 10:31:28 tom: googl
10/03/2015 10:34:49 Mark Glezer: BGCA
10/03/2015 10:40:13 MK: looking at that chart
10/03/2015 10:40:15 MK: i’m less bullish
10/03/2015 10:40:33 Mark Glezer: Sushi Hama @ Rockefeller Center – 11 W 51st – b/w 5th & 6th Ave
10/03/2015 10:41:58 MK: HD
10/03/2015 10:41:59 MK: not HDS
10/03/2015 10:42:51 MK: i’m about to capitualte on this short
10/03/2015 10:43:00 MK: capitulate
10/03/2015 10:44:10 MK: ok
10/03/2015 10:45:29 tom: thx
10/03/2015 10:45:30 MK: have a good weekend eveyroen
10/03/2015 10:48:04 Mark Glezer: yes
10/03/2015 10:48:41 Mark Glezer: sushi place I suggested for Wed
10/03/2015 10:50:27 David B: can you go back and look at last question about the aug and tuesday lows test.
10/03/2015 10:51:28 David B: so it has to be 1867?
10/03/2015 10:51:40 David B: to test?
10/03/2015 10:51:58 Mark Glezer: based on Fri action does it look like unless we gap down substantially, reversal down is unlikely to happen immediately?
10/03/2015 10:53:07 Josey: A fresh low was made it looks like back then 2011 on a retest of low
10/03/2015 10:53:30 David B: yes
10/03/2015 10:54:29 David B: does what is going look similiar to 1987?
10/03/2015 10:54:35 David B: going on
10/03/2015 10:54:43 David B: from aug to oct
10/03/2015 10:55:43 David B: is your expectaion to at least see 1695?
10/03/2015 10:58:11 Mark Glezer: 1400?
10/03/2015 10:58:30 David B: was 666a true bottom put in?
10/03/2015 10:59:38 David B: you always talked about BAC and its low
10/03/2015 11:04:13 Josey: TY Rod, All have a great weekend :)
10/03/2015 11:04:25 David B: Thanks
10/03/2015 11:04:51 Mark Glezer: thx much