Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… 24-hour bug.
Quickly fulfilled objectives can inhibit new sponsorship.
The template we discussed during the pre-market Tour had indicated the 1908.00-1914.00 consolidation was not a bottom. Probing several points under its low was likely. A bigger picture objective had determined already that the next lower objective under 1918.00 was 1899.00. Back above 1916.25 would have signaled a corrective bounce, but 1899.00 was in-play.
The open did blip-up to 1916.25. But only to touch it, expending literally as much buying pressure as was possible to gain without yet gaining traction for the effort. Its reaction down was relentless until touching 1092.50. Reacting up to 1909.75 has resolved down to within 1 tick of 1899.00.
The resumed downleg has formed a Falling Wedge, with room for noise back up to the 1906.00 area. Having plunged into the wedge, its resolution may plunge again. The next lower objective under 1899.00 is 1884.50.
Regardless, containing a low during this morning’s bias environment — recovering this afternoon without probing lower — would likely form a durable bottom. Still probing lower lows this afternoon would suggest a difficult weekend ahead.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 19-point slide has extended its 1908.00-1914.00 consolidating beyond 2 hours as the open approaches. The template suggests resuming the decline without delay, targeting 1899.00. There is potential for bouncing first, but in that case probably only to test 1920.50 before reversing to fresh lows. Regardless of how a probe to fresh lows were to begin, it’s ultimate resolution is unknown without two pieces of information we’ll get this morning. Bouncing so much as to avoid fresh lows altogether would not be a credible bottom.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwcjvw
The First Trade… Where was that hiding?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s plunge under its intraday range down to 1910.50 had been reversed to probe above Tuesday’s highs up to 1941.75. Wednesday’s intraday action was contained almost entirely within Tuesday’s range. But that didn’t prevent its swings from being wide, peaking at 1938.50 and then dropping to 1920.50. It was only the late-afternoon window when volatility began to subside.
Overnight action’s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, but not — especially the sequence. Trending down 19 points probed under Wednesday afternoon’s low to 1917.00, to within 2 ticks of the bias-down target. It was recovered to probe above 5 ticks above Wednesday afternoon’s 1935.00 high. Just like Tuesday night, but in reverse… Oh, wait, then the market began a 28-point slide to fresh lows at 1907.50.
If, then…
Overnight action followed my prescription I had discussed yesterday — probing fresh lows didn’t have to extend, but was unlikely to extend, and likelier to recover into a rally. My treatment didn’t apply to reversing the recovery back down to probe even lower lows, substantially lower lows at that. Any bounce short of 19240.00 or 1927.25 would remain vulnerable to reversing back down. Bouncing back only to the range’s 1920.50 lower-end would more likely refuel a much deeper drop, even if that bounce were entirely pre-open.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1918.00 would be likely also to recover the 1916.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 1912.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal at 10:15.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
[Click here for the morning Bias Parameters]
The only opportunity for Wednesday to trend was late-afternoon. But that window least resembled trending, compared to the other wide intraday swings. Essentially being an inside day and having gained no traction, Wednesday’s session didn’t offer any clues going forward. Nothing prevents Thursday’s open from trying to resolve down, but recovering intraday from a lower probe could be very bullish into and out of the weekend. Not recovering from probing lower could be quite the opposite.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyffrs
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1945.00 | 1933.75 |
| …would target | 1950.25 | 1939.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1933.00 | 1921.75 |
| …would target | 1927.75 | 1916.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.