Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… The trend is our lost friend.
Decent-sized swings continue within the range.
The only concern we discussed during the pre-market Tour about today’s session was the likelihood it wouldn’t trend. That was an important topic, since rallying 31 points overnight from low-to-high was teasing at extending.
In fact, several relatively sizable swings have developed intraday. One no-bias environment after another hasn’t convinced price action to sit still. And they’ve mostly been predictable — including the afternoon’s no-bias trending above its bias-up signal, and its required failure.
That requirement below has been fulfilled. We had expected that any trending today would develop late-afternoon, if at all. It’s late-afternoon. Extending above 1930.00 would target an attack on 1935.00. Extending any higher through 3:10-3:20 would reflect buyers gaining traction.
Otherwise, no further trending-like behavior is required today — there would be vulnerability to retesting the afternoon lows, but no predictive signal.
Daily Spot… Ranges setting in?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce obviously didn’t fulfill Monday’s confirmed breakout which now requires at least an eventual third lower close under Tuesday’s low.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday peaked upon testing the decline’s bounce limit, only ranging sideways intraday, and unlikely to resume the rally without another dip first.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-narrow ranging Wednesday increased the likelihood for at least a slightly lower low testing 14.65.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s “ineffectually optimistic” retest of resistance above 156-00 was retraced Wednesday down to 154-22, which is still short of the gap back down to 153.24 but still confirms resistance isn’t ready to break higher.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s EIA report kept price under pressure attacking 44.50, and certainly not resuming or extending the rally.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially dipping at Wednesday’s open extended the narrow sideways ranging at the lows without signaling any rally soon.
Mid-day Update… Landlocked.
No Island, but a lot of traversing.
Having touched the 1938.25 bias-up signal, back under 1937.00 and 1935.00 reversed momentum down. The morning’s 1924.00 bias-down signal wasn’t yet touched when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, so its eventual test wasn’t required to hold. Its test has extended down to 1921.75.
Not rallying quickly at the open meant today was likely to back-and-fill into yesterday’s range. Its lower prior highs have been tested (they’re still being tested). There’s no lower objective, but breaking lower now would be likely to probe under yesterday’s low.
Otherwise, this being the range’s lower-end, bouncing back to or toward yesterday’s highs is now likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 24, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Durable Goods has a reliable track record of influencing price action. It’s released simultaneously with Jobless Claims and an otherwise irrelevant Fed survey. The post-open housing sector report can influence price action if it’s strong.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1941.00 | 1929.75 |
| …would target | 1946.25 | 1935.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1933.00 | 1921.75 |
| …would target | 1927.75 | 1916.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.