Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Dancing on the head of a pin.
Trying to fluctuate away from unchanged.
This morning’s first several minutes ranged around 1930.75. A dip to 1926.00 was recovered enough and in time to overlap 1930.75 at 10:00. It was still being overlapped at 10:15. That’s a relevant level since it was yesterday’s opening print and its cash session close equivalent.
And three of the first hour’s five 15-miute checkpoints overlapped it. Which signals that this market does not want to trend.
Still, being a no-bias environment, there’s room to fluctuate between its 1924.00 and 1938.25 bias signals. The upper-end is being tested now. It’s too late to trigger, so exceeding the bias-up right now would be “no-bias trending” that must be retraced.
Otherwise, back under 1937.00 and 1935.00 would start to reverse momentum down, presumably targeting the range’s lower-end, potentially to 1922.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The pre-open rally has already tested the 1941.25 preliminary level. Its recovery through 9:45 would make the 1938.25 bias-up signal likely to trigger. We’ll see. It became the head of a Head & Shoulders pattern that has reacted down to 1927.50. If not recovered quickly, then backing-and-filling into yesterday’s range becomes very likely, perhaps also attacking its lows. Details are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvmjrv
The First Trade… Why was this night different from all other nights?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s 33-35 point plunge had consolidated just under 1938.00, whose break would put into play 1918.00. Gapping down under it Tuesday didn’t extend down immediately, but eventually, finally testing 1918.00 as the afternoon’s bias environment began. The balance of the afternoon firmed to 1924.50, and then surged to 1935.00, to within 1 point of the open’s highs. The session’s close was flat with its gap down despite having trended down intraday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially dipping to 1924.50 had bounced optimistically into China’s PMI, which disappointed. Its reaction plunged 20 points to 2010.50. So, why was this night different from all other nights? (Okay, wrong holiday.) Because rather than extend the plunge, Europe’s opens were greeted by a bounce back up to 1924.50. And a brief bobble there was resolved up through Tuesday’s highs to 1939.00. That’s being consolidated back down to 1932.00.
If, then…
It’s tough to label as “resilient” a market that is down sharply in a week to fresh two-week lows. But Tuesday’s gap down netted nothing for its effort, and now last night’s plunge has been reversed. Reversing a plunge does suggest that bearish fundamentals have become overly-discounted. Even with today’s exodus of many participants thinning volume, early strength could retrace much of Monday night’s plunge fast, too. Meanwhile, lower lows and lower highs still define a downtrend. And a lot of energy has been expended just to test 1938.00 resistance. So, the recovery attempt will be very sorry if not rallying at the open.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1941.25 would likely trigger the 1938.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1931.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1949.50 | 1938.25 |
| …would target | 1955.75 | 1944.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1935.00 | 1924.00 |
| …would target | 1927.75 | 1916.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The next lower objective under 1938.00 was 1918.00. Tuesday’s gap down to 1931.00 fluctuated between 1928.50-1936.00 before trending down to the 1918.00 objective. The balance of the afternoon firmed, before a late-afternoon surge up to 1935.00.
That action developed exclusively under last week’s lows. And it satisfied the next lower target’s selling pressure. While closing flat to higher despite the intraday post-open drop. It’s not a buy signal, but it undermines the downside momentum.
Gapping up Wednesday — at least above 1941.00 but probably above 1945.00 — would be attracted higher intraday. Filling the gap(s) at Monday’s 1957.00 and 1963.00 close(s) would be natural, with or without normal volume. Meanwhile, having trended up into the close, gapping down under Tuesday afternoon’s 1918.00 low could form a session-long decline. Tuesday’s “lower prior highs” at 1924.00-1927.00 would try to argue otherwise.
Not gapping up would be difficult to trend at all until late-afternoon. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzxmtm
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc