Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 9 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s most influential economic data isn”t found among any of its reports, but in the 30-year auction and the three Fed speakers.
*Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks — dove
5:45 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks — dove
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks — hawk
12:30 PM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2062.25 | 2054.25 |
| …would target | 2068.00 | 2060.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2049.25 | 2041.25 |
| …would target | 2042.00 | 2034.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… No takers.
Pre-open bounce attracts mostly sellers.
This morning”s 2062.50 bias-down target was attacked to within 3 ticks by an opening surge from 2055.00. That proved to be only a range, centered around the 2058.25 preliminary level. A break lower has extended down 10 points to 2048.50.
And that was before 10:15. Producing a fresh low after that down to 2047.25 at least makes reversing up more difficult. Currently, a buy signal at 2053.50 is being probed by 3 points, targeting 2057.75 and potentially 2062.50.
Back under 2052.75 would signal that another bounce had failed, essentially marginalizing sellers for the day.
The recovery up to 2063.75
The recovery up to 2063.75 is a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the 2076.25-2042.25 overnight drop. It is natural resistance, and having been touched pre-open, must be recovered almost immediately to even consider a buy signal. Its reaction down has already touched the 38.2% retracement at 2055.50, whose immediate break would be difficult to recover — possible, but difficult… Details were discussed in the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjztkmp
SPECIAL NOTE: Please be sure to follow my Twitter feed @IfThenTiming
The First Trade… Live by the sword…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
An amazing swing Tuesday overcame Monday night”s 17-point rally to 2078.00. Dropping 43 points from there into the morning”s 2035.00 bias environment low had already reflected an extraordinary paradigm shift. Then another shift rallied 41 points into the close. The latter sponsorship was more influential, producing its move entirely intraday. No unfinished business was left outstanding below, but buyers didn”t gain traction for the effort, and the recovery stopped short of closing above a relevant level.
Overnight action”s new info…
The primary thrust of my review of Tuesday afternoon”s recovery was that despite it being inspirational, not closing above a relevant high was cautionary. Expending so much energy without gaining traction for the effort is always likelier to retrace. In fact, Globex began slipping at the open, and extended the drop to 31 points at 2042.25 through Europe”s opens. That has been retraced back up through the 2051.00 level that had greeted Europe”s opens, to now attack 2063.75.
If, then…
Not gaining traction for expended energy is always vulnerable to retracement. Yesterday afternoon”s rally didn”t extend above relevant levels at relevant times. Consequently, it has fallen back to the last low before noon yesterday, literally retracing all of yesterday afternoon”s recovery. So, now the question is whether this drop will gain traction for its effort. Gapping down under yesterday”s 2053.75 bias environment low could form a “session-long decline,” but the current bounce is probing back above that level — to the resistance of this morning”s 2062.50 bias-down target. Unless the open were gapping up into positive territory, this morning”s most bullish scenario may be only to range back to unchanged. Gapping down too deeply could say goodbye to the past week”s range.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2058.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2063.25 would be likely to hold above the bias-down target to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2071.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal.