Posts by Rod David
That was quite an intraday
That was quite an intraday swing Tuesday. Not an unqualified reversal, as the afternoon”s rally stopped short of recovering prior highs. The 2078 pre-open high wasn”t touched, and Thursday”s 2077 prior intraday high was barely attacked. Without sponsorship willing to close that much higher, the size of the intraday recovery is irrelevant — this market is not out of the woods.
That condition is not a technicality. Sure, gapping up sufficiently Wednesday could serve by proxy. Not gapping up Wednesday wouldn”t preclude extending higher anyway. But until either gapping up or trending up, the decline can resume without any further delay. And resumption does mean new lows, at this stage probably a new downleg.
Details were discussed during the post-market Wrap, recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkzxwp
[Check this post”s comments for links to monitor the chaRTroom overnight.]
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.25 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2091.75 | 2083.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2076.25 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2070.75 | 2062.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
One of Friday”s two highlighted
One of Friday”s two highlighted stocks doubled as of this morning. I already had described the potential bottoming pattern that MDBX was forming before the week ended. Surging into Monday”s close and out of Tuesday”s open completed the doubling. Retracing the surge is now testing its pullback limit: Posted to the activity feed earlier:
“MDBX — Surged into yesterday”s close and at this morning”s open, now doubling from my highlighting it here and in this week”s Universe. Having touched .29, pullbacks must hold .235 for optimal confirmation the rally remains intact and targeting .31 or possibly .37.”
CHECK THE ACTIVITY FEED OF THIS POST FOR ANOTHER STOCK THAT I”LL HIGHLIGHT THERE… Its a different bottoming pattern not at all assured of reversing higher. But I do like the recent volume patterns, and any other strength on expanding volume would be credible.
Meanwhile, following are recent activity feed posts so that the Marketfy search engine can index them. Gold (GLD), FEYE, VAPE, BIDU, YHOO and more,:
fennecby — thanks – useful info as usual. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — VAPE — I discussed the attractiveness of .25 support that was being tested this week, and the strategy of buying above it while exiting a close under it. This afternoon”s action has surged sharply to .34, which suggest the support is durable. But this is not yet a reversal signal, which would require extending higher with almost no delay Monday. Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
guanito — Tku. Good quality audio on the playback. Posted 4 days ago
Scotty B — Thanks for the chat on GLD. I saw an SA article prediction gold to move up to $25K – in 2050. In the meantime, the same article was expecting a continued pullback in the GLD to around $70 – based on longer term Elliot wave and Fibonacci. Do you see anything in your charts that would support a pull back to $70? Further weakness in GLD makes sense to me if interest rates climb. Posted 3 days ago
Scotty B — FIT: I jumped into that after what looked like an almost perfect fib retrace to the $33 level. As you know it put in a knew high, then settled back. Your earlier comment on $39.95 needs to hold. Is this a close or inter-day hold? Sentiment seems to be strong as attention is moving from AMBA to FIT as the new momentum play (that”s my theory anyway). Posted 3 days ago
jo B — thanks Rod. tell me again why we bother w/ these rip-off OTC stocks? they”re nothing but ATM”s for the company, and us little retail ”investors” get a few crumbs. and the bs that”s allowed to go on is beyond me. how it”s legal is simply mind boggling,…. oh yeah. money. Posted 4 days ago
Scotty B — Hi Jo. Penny stocks are war. The only way to make money is to be the company or trade the momentum. Last year was great, but knowing when to get out is of utmost importance. I feel Rod”s service has been very useful in identifying trend parameters. Even still it is up to the individual to make decisions. I think this sector has been a painful introduction for many people on the nature of penny stocks. Since the 2000 tech collapse I have never been a fan of buy and hold – except AAPL. I also feel learning to trade penny stock is important. The hyper volatility can easily be used to understand larger issues. Take AMBA for example. A great run on that one over the last year. It behaved like a slow motion penny over 16 months and offered a great return. Will it go up another 400% in the next 12 months – I doubt it. But being able to identify and understand those trends from the penny world translated into a great return on that one. That”s how I see it. Happy 4th to all! Posted 4 days ago
Miss Kitty — I have been avoiding penny stocks for some time now and will continue until that market turns upward. In the meantime, I have leaned how to short big time stocks -without needing to be able to short them – via buying put options. It sounds complicated but is very simple and safer than true shorting. I learned how through taking this $200 video course that makes it very easy to understand and I hope to eventually recoup that investment in my trading education. http://claytrader.com/courses/options-trading-s… Posted 3 days ago
Jo B — thanks for ur comments! happy 4th! Posted 3 days ago
Jo B — Clay trader is excellent! Posted 3 days ago
Josey — Hi all, just drove by Tilray in BC;) Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
guanito — to pick your unemployment check? were there picket lines? signs on the fence? Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
guanito — the trouble with options is the time premium. they”re expensive and erode quickly. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — MDBX — Fresh relative high today. Volume is slightly above average but not yet in-line with its recent expansion. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — VAPE — Retracing Thursday”s surge. Closing above that surge”s .36 high would signal momentum reversing up. Posted Yesterday
Miss Kitty — Yes, guanito, I have noticed that disadvantage but options allow you to virtually sell a stock and if/when the market turns down buying puts is a helpful trading tool. Posted Yesterday
Miss Kitty — Rod, what do you think of BIDU and YHOO as possible short candidates? What are their relevant chart parameters? Thanks. Posted 17 hours ago
Rod-David — YHOO — Has been breaking down for awhile, trending down since November”s top around 52.50, and now testing a wobbly last line of defense at 38.80-38.90. The trend is likely to extend and test 33.50 so long as bounces hold 41.15. Posted 11 hours ago
Rod-David — BIDU — Trending down from November through May has now retraced an interim bounce to start piercing May”s low. The trend remains down with potential to 150 so long as 202 now holds bounces Posted 11 hours ago
guanito — T-bonds rallying. I suppose gold will follow. Stocks will go the other way. Nibbled on DOG yesterday for a marker. Great ticker symbol Posted 8 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod David — MDBX — Surged into yesterday”s close and at this morning”s open, now doubling from my highlighting it here and in this week”s Universe. Having touched .29, pullbacks must hold .235 for optimal confirmation the rally remains intact and targeting .31 or possibly .37. Posted 5 hours ago
casjf — GLD – below your $111.585 buy target. Are we still waiting for a close above $116, or nibble now? Posted 4 hours ago
fennecby — what”s the latest on FEYE? Hit close enough to your 45 for a buy? Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — Gold met my target last week, and is retesting it today. Im not buying weakness, but would start nibbling upon closing far enough back toward the double bottom”s interim high Posted 3 hours ago
casjf — GLD – looking at the chart for double bottom”s interim high — would that be around $114.64? Posted 3 hours ago
guanito — think so. nibbled a bit on IAU. Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — The interim high need not be recovered, just enough of the distance. That”s back above 111.85 Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — FEYE — Testing 46.25 could serve as the pullback”s low. This would become likely upon closing back above 48.75 and 49.60 Posted 2 hours ago
Pre-close view… Is it safe, yet?
Fresh highs threatening to gain traction.
The afternoon”s 2059.25 bias-up target was met and not exceeded by 1:20, so the bias-up signal wasn”t renewed. The bias environment hovered narrowly around 2059.25, until a late dip that touched the 2053.75 bias-up signal as support.
Its reaction up rallied 19 points to 2073.00. The final hour was entered well above the bias environment”s high. That would have been bullish for tomorrow if the bias environment had been exited above the noon hour”s high. Nevertheless, it could be bullish if the 3:10-3:20 window were to extend to fresh highs.
Not confirming the final hour”s entry wouldn”t default to bearish. And it wouldn”t prevent extending higher today after 3:20. Its absence would leave the door open to yet another intraday dip. Intraday dips are vulnerable to probing new lows, and there”s no bullish reason for another fresh low.
Meanwhile, quarterly earnings news will take on a higher profile, helping to drown out the noise of Greece thrashing about on the hull of the market”s deep sea fishing boat. That might actually help to insert a rally.
Daily Spot… Carnage.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held the 1.1120 bounce limit after Monday”s bounce originated optimistically short of actually touching the prior Sunday”s low, lower lows Tuesday filled the month-old gap at 1.0930. The drop”s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 1.1000 as resistance.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s plunge fulfilled the retest of 1158.50 down to 1146.80. Consolidating under 1158.50 qualified as a breakout. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm at least a third eventual lower close coming. Closing above 1163.00 would signal that a bottom is forming, if not already reversing up.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking down more than $1 Tuesday to 14.62 doesn”t seem to qualify as “slow-playing” its decline. But this is the stage where a bottom can form by re-syncing with Gold. Avoiding a second consecutive lower confirming close Wednesday would be the first step.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The quality of last week”s bottom hasn”t improved simply because of the rally that it launched. Extending higher even during Monday night”s stock index rally suggests that more than a flight-to-safety is driving price higher. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday confirms Monday”s breakout and requires an eventual third higher close. That said, Tuesday”s price action formed a potential Island that would be triggered by gapping open Wednesday back under 151-28 and leaving the eventual recovery for another week.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down deeper through Tuesday morning tested relevant support at 50.40-50.55. The next relevant support had been 51.90-52.05, which a reaction up was overlapping. This should be the low of what is only a correction, so long as a bounce recovers 52.90-53.00. Otherwise, extending down would next target new lows at 48.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s break back to 2.77 extended lower overnight somewhat similarly to Friday”s temporary probe above 2.83. Fresh lows intraday under 2.69 were retraced enough that also recovering 2.77 Wednesday could form a durable bottom. There is otherwise no compelling pattern currently.