Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view
Late extension, meet no extension.
Bias-up is bias-up. Although the bias-up target was met before the bias timing window, it wasn”t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. That”s still a bias-up environment, but not with any higher target requiring a test.
That paragraph applies equally to this morning as to this afternoon. One separate point, which is different: This morning”s bias-up environment did eventually trend higher through its bias-up target. This afternoon”s bias-up environment did not.
Not trending higher this morning wouldn”t have had any specific consequence. Not trending higher this afternoon does, this being a session that has otherwise trended higher..
The 2106.25 bias-up target was met just before the 1:20 bias timing window, eventually reacting down to 2102.75. Just probing under 2104.00 already suggests that momentum is reversing down. The near-term objective is to test 2100.00 as support.
There”s no requirement to trend down substantially, but late trending on Fridays rarely encounters counter-trend opposition. By the same token, expirations can be a wild card, so resuming the rally could tick higher relentlessly anyway.
Pre-close view
Late extension, meet no extension.
Bias-up is bias-up. Although the bias-up target was met before the bias timing window, it wasn”t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. That”s still a bias-up environment, but not with any higher target requiring a test.
That paragraph applies equally to this morning as to this afternoon. One separate point, which is different: This morning”s bias-up environment did eventually trend higher through its bias-up target. This afternoon”s bias-up environment did not.
Not trending higher this morning wouldn”t have had any specific consequence. Not trending higher this afternoon does, this being a session that has otherwise trended higher..
The 2106.25 bias-up target was met just before the 1:20 bias timing window, eventually reacting down to 2102.75. Just probing under 2104.00 already suggests that momentum is reversing down. The near-term objective is to test 2100.00 as support.
There”s no requirement to trend down substantially, but late trending on Fridays rarely encounters counter-trend opposition. By the same token, expirations can be a wild card, so resuming the rally could tick higher relentlessly anyway.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap… ANNOUNCEMENT: This daily blog post will soon expand to include current patterns and parameters covering the 20-year bond, gasoline, and more currencies (those which we currently review during the daily Tour and Wrap) — also, annotated charts! Please send me any other requests.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s gap up probed Wednesday”s intraday high up to 1.0895, but reacted back down under 1.0855 resistance. Almost any delay in extending higher out of the weekend would be likely to retest 1.0590 and potentially lower.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After holding Thursday”s dip to the 1161.00 buy signal, a second consecutive higher confirming close was produced easily by Friday”s session-long rally to test 1187.00. Sunday night / Monday will be interesting, already being within $10 of the rally”s 1197.00 target, with the confirmed buy signal requiring at least (or only) one more eventual higher close, and almost $50 off of the week”s lows.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already outperforming Gold, Friday”s session-long rally confirmed Thursday”s breakout, targeting 17.25.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s reaction down from Wednesday night”s 164-07 high held its 163-00 pullback limit, although a lower low would have been allowed. Taht wasn”t necessarily too much impatient optimism from a contrarian perspective, although gapping up already Friday and probing fresh highs up to 164-12 does urge caution. No sell signal is triggered on same day as a new high, and extending higher would next target 164-26 area.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from Wednesday”s late surge had retraced to its breakout point Thursday, whose retest overnight launched a surge back to Wednesday”s intraday high. Friday”s open gapped up, which is not appropriate for resuming a corrected breakout. The bounce might extend further, through 47.50 to test 49.55, but back under 45.85 would signal another downleg already underway.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After reacting negatively to Thursday EIA report, the overnight rally gapped up to quickly fill the gap back to Wednesday”s 2.92 close. Too quickly. The balance of the morning reversed down to probe under Thursday”s low testing 2.77 support. Any further delay in resuming the rally would make a retest of recent lows likely.
Livestox, March 20 2015
Friday”s Livestox was uneventful after we cleared the room of the last Code Pink protestor. Sandra called the meeting to order, Tom announced new business, and special thanks to Alfred for keeping the minutes an bringing his wife”s homemade bundt cake for after. We discussed the lesson of “discounting anticipations” in this week”s S&P price action, and also reviewed the Crude Oil and Gold markets. Then we discussed the following stocks in the following order:
ATTBF
FITX
GWPH
PAL
GTLS
BIIB
CIG
ERBB
CARA
HFC
FNV
GBLX
NTRI
AERO
NRTI
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 23 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
A couple of Fed speakers start the week with a reminder of the prior week”s FOMC policy statement and Chairman”s press conference. Otherwise, neither of the actual econ reports has much track record of influencing price action.
*Loretta Mester Speaks
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET