Posts by Rod David
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday was the second consecutive session to be spent eintirely in negative territory, probing as low as 2100.75. It was also the second consecutive afternoon for sellers to gain traction. Like its immediate predecessor, its selling pressure failed to close under prior lows. Hold-short through the close barely failed to trigger.
Overnight action”s new info…
Saturday”s surprise rate cut by China wasn”t nearly as influential as its last rate cut in November. That”s assuming it was influential, at all. Sunday night”s 2104.00 open was only 2 points above Friday”s 2102.00 cash session close. Its surge to 2107.75 was quickly retraced to hover at 2104.25, Another surge into Europe”s opens reacted back down sharply from 2109.25. And now fresh overnight lows are attacking Friday”s 2102.00 cash session close.
If, then…
Not closing under a prior low gives the rally a significant advantage. Overnight ranging has created a little extra room for selling pressure to be expended before it can gain traction. That doesn”t prevent the open from trying. The burden of proof is still on sellers, but triggering bias-down would be sufficient. Meanwhile, the past week”s topping pattern is still vulnerable to retesting its upper-end if sellers haven”t yet retaken control.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2099.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/28/15)
In this weekend”s Saturday Review we discussed the blow-off top pattern we”ve been tracking for weeks-to-months. We discussed this week”s topping signal and its confirmation(s). We discussed the past two sessions” weakness. Then, naturally, we discussed why another rally leg is likely. Stock chart analysis requests from subscribers were done during the session”s last 45 minutes.
Accompanying chat:
David B: good morning
Mark : hi
Gail : good morning
Mark : Would u expect the topping process to continue for a few
more days since u do not expect a close under 2100 on Mon?
Gary : The biotech sector has been very strong, what do you think
of IBB?
Mark : could u please repeat the answer to my Q as I had to
restart?
tamara : please review gold and oil please
David B: GOOGL,BBY
Mark : ok
Mark : CPLP – still looking for 10?
tamara : AMGN,CELG,GILD,BIIB,AAPL,KO,PFE
Mark : Euro longer term – looking lower perhaps on par with
dollar?
Gary : breaking 342 or 335 would give direction?
David B: earnings this week too much optimism?
David B: greeting it from strength?
David B: tues
David B: before
David B: open
Gary : AMGN is 7% of IBB.
David B: FNSR,SDRL
Gary : the divergance between IBB and two of it”s largest holdings
is very interesting.
David B: earnings on thursday
Mark : Euro longer term Q above
David B: AXP,SODA
David B: does 77 need to be tested?
David B: is a bottom in?
David B: what level a closed below would be a concern?
Gary : I never thought of using Fib. retracement this way. how did
you come up with this?
David B: not sure
David B: maybe because of MNST earnings
Mark : Euro Q
tamara : gold and oil
tamara : great Thanks so much Rod. Extremely helpful.
Mark : merci beaucoup
David B: thanks
Gary : Thanks
What”s next… Topping, or corrected?
What”s next… Topping, or corrected? Ready to roll, or ready to roll over? Innie, or outtie? We”ll address most of these questions during this morning”s Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
The Universe, week of March 2 2015
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week .]
Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
I”ve added several stocks to the Universe (CBCA, ETST, MCPI, PKPH). Nothing relevant about their charts yet. Please let me know if there”s an cannabis issue that I should add.
I dropped NRTI from monitoring for a surge. The reasons were described during Thursday”s Livestox, that price was drifting just a little too low to maintain what was originally an attractive measurement. In its place, NTRR may be tracking the same bullish pattern. It has pulled back 61.8% from its recent surge, and just needs one more modest bounce to complete the triangle.
Do you keep up with the Livestox sessions? Thursday”s video covered more cannabis sector stocks in one session than we had in a while. The review is helpful if you”re trading the sector, but the charting and technical analysis tips are helpful no matter what you”re trading.
Those insights will be especially useful soon. The latest, mostest definitest word coming down the official chain is that real-life trading parameters will be released next Monday. I”m ready to roll, and hope I know you”re as eager as I am.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for March 2, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 17 | 15.45% |
| trends* | # flat: | 26 | 23.64% |
| # down: | 67 | 60.91% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACAN | 0.050 | 1.260 | down |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AERO | 3.550 | 4.550 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.015 | 0.103 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.360 | 0.570 | down |
| ARNA | 4.150 | 5.300 | up |
| ATTBF | 0.093 | 0.175 | flat |
| AVTC | 1.050 | 1.480 | down |
| AXXU | 0.066 | 0.377 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.280 | 0.570 | up |
| BLPG | 0.120 | 0.370 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.605 | 0.795 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.032 | 0.094 | down |
| BTFL (cank) | n/a | n/a | down |
| CANL | 1.050 | 1.570 | flat |
| CANN | 3.150 | 6.700 | down |
| CANV | 2.700 | 3.700 | flat |
| CARA | 9.960 | 12.450 | up |
| CBCA | n/a | n/a | down |
| CBDS | 5.100 | 8.150 | down |
| CBGI | 0.002 | 0.015 | down |
| CBIS | 0.045 | 0.065 | down |
| CGRW (bzcn) | 0.530 | 0.960 | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 1.185 | 2.035 | up |
| CTCO | 0.060 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| DIGP | 0.025 | 0.100 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.013 | 0.028 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.031 | 0.077 | down |
| ENDO | 0.014 | 0.031 | down |
| ENRT | 0.048 | 0.100 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.009 | 0.013 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.008 | 0.016 | flat |
| FOFU | 0.025 | 0.066 | up |
| FRTD | n/a | 0.008 | flat |
| FSPM | 0.018 | 0.460 | flat |
| FULL | 3.550 | 4.140 | down |
| FWDG | 0.005 | 0.018 | down |
| GBLX | 0.208 | 0.486 | down |
| GRCU | 0.003 | 0.008 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.090 | 0.174 | down |
| GWPH | 79.900 | 87.650 | up |
| HEMP | 0.032 | 0.048 | flat |
| ICBU | 0.004 | 0.011 | down |
| IGPK | n/a | n/a | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.236 | 0.320 | up |
| INCC | 0.001 | 0.007 | flat |
| INSY | 55.000 | 61.750 | up |
| ITNS | 0.006 | 0.011 | down |
| LATF | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.129 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.132 | 0.222 | down |
| MCPI | n/a | n/a | flat |
| MDBX | 0.950 | 2.270 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.168 | down |
| MDRM | 0.024 | 0.060 | down |
| MINE | 0.007 | 0.014 | up |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.020 | 0.499 | down |
| MJNA | 0.099 | 0.160 | down |
| MJNE | n/a | n/a | down |
| MNTR | 0.810 | 1.550 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.000 | 0.380 | down |
| NDEV | 0.200 | 0.440 | flat |
| NRTI | 0.014 | 0.048 | flat |
| NTRR | 0.027 | 0.148 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.002 | 0.009 | down |
| OXIS | 0.013 | 0.044 | up |
| PAUFF | n/a | n/a | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PKPH | n/a | n/a | up |
| PLPL | 0.220 | 0.315 | down |
| PMCB (nvlx) | 0.098 | 0.188 | down |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | flat |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.020 | down |
| QEDN | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | up |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | flat |
| SING | 0.008 | 0.017 | up |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.198 | 0.283 | down |
| SRNA | 0.150 | 0.350 | down |
| STEV | 0.071 | 0.100 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.012 | 0.017 | flat |
| THCZ | 0.026 | 0.041 | up |
| TRTC | 0.213 | 0.268 | down |
| TURV | 0.410 | 0.775 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.670 | 2.250 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.490 | 0.930 | down |
| VAPR | 0.030 | 0.090 | flat |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| VPCO | 0.820 | 1.290 | down |
| VPOR | 0.002 | 0.038 | down |
| VRCI | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| WDHR (anyi) | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI (cybk) | 0.004 | 0.009 | up |
| XTRM | 0.003 | 0.007 | up |
| XXII | 0.710 | 1.160 | down |
| ZDPY | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Friday”s post-close Market Wrap began
Friday”s post-close Market Wrap began by repeating the considerations behind whether to hold-short over the weekend. The recording is here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmtwtb