Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s Fed speaker spoke earlier this week so he’s less likely to inject a surprise. The afternoon’s Fed speaker may help to inject a little volatility before the weekend. Consumer Sentiment in between is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2788.00 | 2791.00 |
| …would target | 2800.00 | 2803.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2757.50 | 2760.50 |
| …would target | 2746.00 | 2740.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back to widely disparate opinions.
Opening volatility offers a little something for everyone.
Overnight tests of “lower prior highs” at 2749.00 not only held, but also launched a pre-open recovery up to 2786.50. 
Actually, the last 12 points of that was the knee-jerk reaction to CPI. The open was greeted there, but within a choppy range.
The choppy overnight range and the choppy pre-open range kept it going to produce a choppy post-open range. Dipping to attack 2772.00 and surging into positive territory attacking 2799.00 has now been reversed to attack overnight down to 2751.00.
Late no-bias triggered when the last reversal barely managed to touch the 2778.50 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 10:15. The grace period recovered, yet the reversal has taken control. Without producing a probe above the pre-10:15 high, exiting the bias environment under its 2769.50 bias-down signal would invalidate its signal. So, no-bias and its offsetting test of the bias-up signal seem to be off the table.
At least a test of the 2749.00 “lower prior highs” is likely. That would also be a retest of the overnight lows, but the overnight/intraday difference doesn’t make them any likelier to break lower. And the same setup applies — testing 2749.00 during a timing window and recovering it before the exit could establish a near-term bottom. Its break could otherwise trend down sharply.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Focus on its timing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pattern had reflected sharply disparate opinion being expressed, likely to explode in one direction or the other. The resolution didn’t have to be immediate, but it was. S&Ps were down 106 points through Wednesday’s cash session close to 2780.00. Tuesday had closed at 2886.00-2888.00 and last week’s highs were 2942.00-2945.00. Causes range from rising rates, tighter falling unemployment, and vice versa, to widespread accelerated dumping of FAANGs and other tech stocks, which we began anticipating with August’s earnings reactions to NFLX and FB. Their charts reflect no accumulation through Wednesday’s close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending slightly (relatively!) lower held 2771.00 for awhile, then broke sharply lower to within 1 point of the next set of “lower prior highs” begins at 2749.00. All of which was eventually retraced by rallying into and out of Europe’s opens back up to natural resistance at yesterday’s 2780.00 close. All of which was soon retraced to probe 2 points under 2749.00. Its reaction up to 2763.50 seems to be failing.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
August’s probe above January’s high is gone, after being tested as support both last month and last week. Overnight lows have tested, retested, and re-retested the next set of lower prior highs at 2749.00, that I identified at yesterday’s Market Wrap. That’s where a “buy-the-dip” mentality would have been likely, as it has been overnight. Holding its test through the open would allow a corrective bounce. My biggest concern with buying today is the drop’s midweek timing, which doesn’t inhibit reinforcements, fueling the perpetual motion machinery into and out of the weekend. Meanwhile, also, public focus is being diluted by coverage of Hurricane Michael’s Florida devastation, which is exceeding expectations. Breaking under 2749.00 — now, or later — would target a cluster of objectives and support around 2721.00. Closing under 2709.00 could spell near-term doom.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2762.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2769.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2773.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2778.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2798.75 | 2803.75 |
| …would target | 2808.00 | 2813.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2773.50 | 2778.50 |
| …would target | 2764.50 | 2769.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.