Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2434.00 | 2431.00 |
| …would target | 2439.25 | 2436.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2425.00 | 2422.25 |
| …would target | 2418.50 | 2415.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The pattern since Wednesday afternoon had been to probe prior highs and then reverse down. Friday’s pattern was no different structurally, only in degree. Gapping up above the 2436.50 prior high would have broken the pattern and enabled trending higher into the weekend. Only recovering to 2436.50 during the opening 15 minutes of volatility had left the morning’s rally vulnerable to retracing.
Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. The noon hour’s exit had retraced the morning’s rally from 2443.50 only to unchanged at 2430.00. That was the wrong place to be when the bias-up influence disappeared. Support wasn’t helped by NDX already having reversed back to Thursday’s lows. The next lower objective at 2419.25 attracted price down to it, and through it by another 61.8% to 2412.50.
The final hour was entered by a bounce up to 2418.00. Extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window can’t change whether the bounce’s origin was too low and too late to be sponsored by strong hands. Oversold RSIs at the low require a retest.
Of course, overbought RSIs at the high also require a retest. Presumably that would be done while satisfying the requirement for at least one more new high close. Speaking of which, the rally just failed to exploit the proximity to another new trend high close on a Friday.
Overbought RSIs
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be delivered in the morning before its 9:30am ET start.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Weaker on its own data and in sympathy with the Pound’s gap down, Friday’s lower close confirmed Thursday’s breakout, next targeting 1.1111 and 1.1095.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Friday to 1277.00 extended more than $10 lower to test the 1269.50 level whose break would signal a more substantial downleg underway. Closing back above 1277.00 would otherwise launch a recovery.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows overnight gapped down Friday to Thursday’s 17.28 low and extended lower to 17.15. Closing back above 17.35 would signal the decline had ended and momentum is reversing up. There’s still room down to 17.05 before signaling a more substantial downleg underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 154-24 bounce limit was tested at Thursday night’s high before reversing back down to fresh lows Friday morning. Rejecting an intraday bounce is always optimal, so holding the 153-29 sell signal through Friday’s close makes a bigger bounce likely.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s fresh low wasn’t rejected Friday, and instead held 46.20 whose recovery would have launched an intraday rally. The delay now requires either surging early Monday, or else recovering from an intraday probe of fresh lows.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow ranging avoided closing above 3.09 where a recovery could be signaled. Much further delay than Monday morning would be likely at least to probe fresh lows before bottoming.
Mid-day Update… It might not be over.
Morning’s surge retraced, but not yet punished.
The open’s surge got a benefit of the doubt for extending higher because of Friday Factors. Otherwise,
the opening 15 minutes of volatility had only retraced yesterday’s 2436.50 prior high, but had not yet exceeded it. The reward was new highs up to 2443.50.
The pattern since Wednesday afternoon has been to probe prior highs, and then to fail. This morning’s probe above prior highs has kept the pattern alive, as it has failed.
Overbought RSIs at the high weren’t retested before already slipping a little when the bias environment began lapsing. The noon hour retraced the entire post-open rally. Actually, half the noon hour retraced to within 2 ticks of the open’s gap up. Now after renewing the afternoon’s bias-down signal, yesterday’s 2430.25 cash session close is being probed down to 2428.00.
Reversing this morning’s rally would target 2419.25. Avoiding it would require trapping shorts. Now having probed negative territory, exiting the afternoon bias environment back in positive territory would suggest the session low is made.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week-long dearth of influential reports persists into the new week. For one day. Monday. The last session for awhile without influential and high-profile reports and announcements.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET