Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.0650 buy signal was tested Tuesday morning, but held. The gap back down to Monday”s ~1.0590 close was filled, leaving no momentum active in either direction.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The required fresh low under 1146.50 with room for noise down to 1141.00 was fulfilled almost entirely soon after Tuesday”s open. A massive surge to 1158.00 was retraced back down to retest 1146.50, which was recovered back up to 1148.00 at the close. Not closing decisively under 1148.00 does keep the door open to recovering 1154.00 and 1161.00 to reverse the trend back up. Meanwhile, not yet recovering through Wednesday”s close — or not rallying to fresh highs in reaction to Wednesday”s post-close FOMC news — could then trend down a lot.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s quick dip filled the gap back outstanding at  Wednesday”s close, but tested it only momentarily before surging back to and through the interim highs. The gap-fill”s delay had suggested its test would include a probe under Wednesday”s low before recovering, but that wasn”t required, so the reaction up is credible for extending higher.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeatedly holding tests of 159-12/159-24 support was rewarded by trending higher Monday night to 161-12. Post-open highs tested and retested 161-21. Wednesday”s FOMC news is being greeted from a position of strength, at least to expect a knee-jerk reaction down to 159-12/159-24 support to recover. But closing under it would not be bullish.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Pivot Reversal? Fresh trend lows intraday tested 42.65, and then recovered into positive territory above 44.00. That was retraced back down to test the 43.11 opening gap, which held as support. A higher close would have been optimal, but this sequence otherwise forms a bullish “Pivot Reversal” that must be confirmed by essentially extending higher without delay above 44.30. Otherwise, the trend remains down and next targeting 37.15.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapped up through its 2.77 buy signal to test 2.84. Like its prior two tests, probes above it continued overlapping it through the close instead of exceeding it decisively. Unlike its prior two tests the close was above 2.84. It might be premature to resolve up while having created a gap back down to Monday”s 2.71 close. Regardless, I still don”t view the current range as distribution or a continuation and expect it to resolve up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up and trending higher through Monday morning retraced 61.8% into the Complex Triangle that defined Thursday”s pattern. The test of 1.0625 then ranged around Thursday”s 1.0590 low. Closing above 1.0560 1.0650 would target 1.0855, but any delay would more likely test Friday”s low down to 1.0430.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having dipped back down to 1154.00 one time too many Friday, the recovery scenario became less likely than a retest of 1148.00. In fact, despite probing above 1161.00 Sunday night, Friday”s lows were probed Monday down to 1149.30. Now 1146.50 and 1141.00 are likely to be tested, too, unless the 1161.00 buy signal is recovered.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s gap up extended to probe above the prior three days” highs to 15.75. But a reversal soon filled the gap back down to Friday”s 15.50 close. The balance of the session ranged sideways, still having difficulty improving while the lower gap back to last Wednesday”s 15.37 gap remains unfilled.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ending the week while still holding 159-12/159-24 support produced a gap up Monday above 160-00. Closing above it would signal a new upleg underway. The majority of Monday”s session hovered pessimistically short of touching Thursday”s 160-26 high, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night”s open plunged to test 43.60, fulfilling the decline”s minimum target of a new low in the $43 handle. Its reaction up to 44.70 was reversed even lower to 42.85, but still recovered to touch 44.00. The $43 handle apparently offers a lot of support. Closing back above 44.30 would signal that at least this downleg had ended. Until then, the decline”s next lower target would be 37.15.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s gap down held Friday”s gap down in the 2.70. area. Avoiding even an intraday probe of fresh lows does suggest “ineffectual optimism,” which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Closing above 2.77 and 2.84 can still form a bottom and launch a rally leg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding 1.0590 support Thursday created an anchor that would allow an intraday dip Friday to fill the gap back to Wednesday”s close. Not only was the gap filled, but Wednesday”s low was also probed — and didn”t recover intraday. Potential to 1.0430 remains intact, but any bounce there has room up to 1.0590 before even suggesting a corrective bounce is forming.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing from an overnight test of 1154.00 was retraced back down to fresh lows Friday. Narrow hovering just under 1154.00 prevented another buy signal. Decisively closing under 1154.00 would have been bearish, but still ranging around it does keep alive the 1161.00 buy signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s gap up was likely to be retraced, but Friday”s narrow ranging didn”t even probe under Thursday”s low — let alone dip even further to fill the gap back to Wednesday”s close. All while not extending higher. The continued “ineffectual optimism” suggests that a fresh low will be probed next.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows that recovered up to 160-00 still went out Friday testing the 159-12/159-24 pullback limit. There is no further clarity in the pattern, except that extending the rally at this stage shouldn”t be further delayed.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The confirmed sell signal under $50 extended much deeper Friday, probing under 45.00. and still targeting at least a probe under 44.00, if not to 37.15.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s negative reaction to EIA was not extended Friday, although the 2.77 buy signal was barely attacked, and not triggered.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite initially probing fresh lows overnight testing 1.0495 and not fulfilling potential to 1.0430, Thursday”s open had recovered to gap up above 1.0590. Holding it as support intraday would allow closing above 1.0550 to signal momentum reversing up, even if only for a temporary correction up to 1.0780.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s firm open still needed to retest 1148.00 intraday, which was accomplished, but the close was only attacking 1154.00 instead of recovering it. That potential buy setup didn”t complete, but extending higher through Friday morning to recover 1161.00 would compensate for Thursday”s delay. There is no unfinished business below, but not exploiting that by noon Friday would be likely instead to extend the decline.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday without having both probed and rejected fresh lows overnight didn”t extend, and only ranged around its opening print. A fresh low can”t be discounted, or at least filling the gap back to Wednesday”s close, before being allowed to rally near-term.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s close above the bounce limit firmed overnight, and Thursday”s reaction to econ reports spiked up to 160-26. The reaction down to 159-00 needed to recover the 159-12/159-24 pullback limit (which was being tested into the afternoon) to confirm a bigger rally leg is underway.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s fresh low at 47.40 had reacted up to 48.60. But despite firming further overnight, Thursday”s flat open resumed Wednesday morning”s drop. Regardless of whether Thursday”s fresh lows probing under 47.00 have fulfilled the required third lower close, the pattern”s likely objective is to probe fresh lows under 44.00 or lower.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, having closed above the 2.77 buy signal only Wednesday, and holding a test of the 2.84 confirmation. The reaction down tested 2.77 as support. Now, recovering 2.84 would be needed to signal a rally leg underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The next lower target at 1.0590 was fulfilled overnight, and then exceeded intraday Wednesday to test 1.0515. The next lower potential support is 1.0430.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night”s selling extended Wednesday to fresh lows that tested the 1148.00 target down to 1146.50. The target held as support through the close, which was also testing 1154.00. Back above 1161.00 would be the first suggestion that momentum is reversing up.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The longstanding attraction to probe under December”s 16.50 lows was fulfilled finally on Wednesday morning”s drop to test4 16.25. The decline”s momentum remains intact unless 16.75 were recovered through the close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher to 159-10 Tuesday night could be dismissed as noise before backing-and-filling or reversing down. In fact, Wednesday”s open did gap down to test 158-00. But another flight-to-quality triggered a retest of the overnight highs up to 159-24. Closing above 160-00 would signal the trend had reversed up, and back under 158-00 would target a retest of the lows.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s close back under 50.00 was confirmed by Wednesday”s second consecutive lower close, which had recovered back above 48.00 after probing it considerably intraday.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A momentary fresh low overnight was retraced back to unchanged before Wednesday”s open. Then the morning surged sharply, through the 2.77 signal to test the 2.84 confirmation, both of which were tested last week.