Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Sunday night”s knee-jerk reaction to Greece”s elections pierced last week”s low. The entire dip was recovered before regular trading hours. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip to 1275.60 filled another gap below. Its retest after Monday”s open didn”t extend down. Back above 1285.00 would signal the break was false, and that last week”s highs would be retested up to 1309.90. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1268.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lower lows overnight were recovered only temporarily, and extended down post-open to fill the gap back down to Tuesday”s 16.95 close. “Ineffectual pessimism” at last week”s highs has yet to be retested.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight rally to 150-29 was retraced entirely by Monday”s open to range narrowly around 149-23 well through the noon hour. Potential for a corrective bounce remains alive, despite being largely fulfilled Sunday night, while awaiting a new relative low close.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday”s follow-through under 46.25 support to 44.00 was reversed back to 46.25 Monday morning. It didn”t extend, but did try fighting off a second consecutive lower close that would confirm Friday”s break.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s opening drop filled the gap back to 2.84 that Friday”s gap up had created. It held its test, so closing back above 2.86 can now be credible for triggering an upleg, which would be confirmed above 2.96.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Trending down overnight and gapping down sharply Friday created three obstacles for a recovery. First is the 1.1200 gap down, under all prior lows, which will need to be retested after bouncing back into the prior range at least above 1.1385. Second, trending through Friday tends to be duplicated Monday morning, which would only add further difficulty to a qualified retest of Friday”s gap down from above. And third, Friday”s low is a second consecutive lower close, confirming Thursday”s breakout from a multi-session range and requiring an eventual third lower close. Meanwhile, gapping up would create another obstacle, needing to fill the gap close left outstanding below.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Is 1310.00 going to be avoided? Retesting Wednesday”s 1307.00 prior high Thursday was enough to react down to Thursday”s 1284.50 low Friday. A bounce there may have formed the right shoulder to a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern. Another break under 1284.50 could trigger it. Meanwhile, fresh highs remain in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s narrowly ranging inside day still didn”t probe prior highs, which Thursday pessimistically avoided, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s lower close was all but rejected by Friday”s gap up. The session only ranged around Thursday”s 149-24 high. Closing above Friday”s 150-11 post-open high would target a retest of the prior high, presumably up to 151-28. Regardless, a close under Thursday”s 147-12 low is required eventually.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A bilp-up in reaction to Abdullah”s death Thursday night was reversed back under 46.25 support before Friday”s open. The extended ranging at its support without yet rallying was already threatening to launch a new downleg. Friday afternoon did trend down to fresh lows at 45.35. Back above 47.80 would trigger a recovery. Otherwise, a second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg is underway.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Friday helped to confirm that Thursday”s probe of new lows did not gain traction. But gapping up creates “unfinished business below” at the gap back to Thursday”s 2.84 close, so probably cannot launch a recovery. Friday afternoon”s action was testing the 2.98 buy signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up slightly Thursday was reversed down sharply in reaction to the ECB QE news. Falling back to 1.1525 critical support failed to hold, and instead broke sharply through it to 1.1367. That”s a breakout, and a second consecutive lower close on Friday would confirm. Even avoiding confirmation would not prevent probing fresh lows next week.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday”s night”s drop to 1279.00 filled the gap back to Tuesday”s close, and recovered back above 1287.70 before Thursday”s open. Probing fresh high above 1307.00 is still likely to test 1310.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday night”s dip to 17.90 filled the gap back to Tuesday”s close before recovering Thursday to test Wednesday”s opening gap above. All nearby attractions are neutralized. But Wednesday”s 18.49 high was narrowly avoided, pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday night”s dip to 147-12 reacted up sharply in reaction to the ECB QE news, back through 148-23 and 148-14 to 149-28. The close had fallen back under 148-14, a second consecutive lower close that confirms Wednesday”s breakout, and which requires at least one more eventual lower close.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A bounce up to the 49.00 before Thursday”s ECB QE was rejected sharply intraday, fueled by large inventories reported by EIA. The decline”s lowest target  at 46.25 (actually, noise under the 47.80 target) was tested and retested. It, ultimately held through the close, but the base must launch a rally before entering the noon hour if a new downleg is to be avoided.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday”s EIA report triggered a probe to fresh lows at 2.77. The close was probing back above 2.79-2.82 prior lows — still overlapping and not necessarily recovering. Back above 2.86 and 2.98 would trigger a bounce targeting 3.11, with potential to become much more.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Wednesday was extended slightly higher after a reaction down had attacked Tuesday”s close. That wasn”t deep enough to fill the gap, and the optimism prevented the higher high from extending. Its retracement tested the 1.1575 pullback limit that keeps the door open to rallying more durably.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to attack the 1307.00 overnight high was soon reversed into negative territory testing 1284.50.Avoiding a close under 1287.50 keeps alive the likelihood for retesting 1307.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight and gapping up to test 18.50 was reversed sharply and quickly down to 18.00, but still held above prior highs. The potential pullback to 17.56 remains alive.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday night”s 61.8% retracement back to 150-08 reacted down Wednesday to attack 148-23 within 4 ticks, whose break would launch a new extended downleg. Back above 149-24 would instead target a retest of Friday”s high up to 151-28.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Popping up in reaction to a leak of Thursday”s ECB QE did help to establish that a relevant support was being tested. Aggressive uptrending is likely if a bottom has formed, and any shallower rallying would be suspicious. This week”s EIA report is delayed one day until Thursday due to Monday”s holiday.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing 2.98 resistance pre-open and gapping up does help to confirm that the pullback is being stalked. A post-open dip avoided filling the gap back down to Tuesday”s close before recovering to a post-open high. It”s not an optimal bottom, but Thursday”s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength that could more easily absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Holiday strength was pushed back through Tuesday, but only to correct the rally from Friday”s low. Closing above 1.1595 would signal a rally leg underway, targeting 1.1785 and 1.2000.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming into week”s end didn”t extend meaningfully until Tuesday surged through 1287.70 to attack 1300.00. The rally is extended, but its momentum remains intact so long 1285.70 holds as support. But there is room down to 1266.50-1269.00 before actually signaling momentum is reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying to 18.00.now requires that pullbacks hold 17.65 to maintain the rally”s momentum. 

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging through the holiday did blip-up Tuesday morning, but stopped 61.8% of the way back to last week”s test of the 150-08 bounce limit”s resistance at 150-16. Any higher would suggest the rally remains intact and next targeting 150-28. The earliest sell signal at this stage would be triggered by losing back under 149-14.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Opening Tuesday back under 47.80 (basis Mar, 47.45 basis Feb) extended down only briefly and only a little. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, but didn”t trend down. So long as 46.20 holds as support, back above 49.00 would launch a new rally leg. Having said that, taking much longer to recover becomes increasingly vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Backing-and-filling persisted through the holiday, neutralizing all lower attractions so that another buy signal could be introduced back above 2.98.