Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight A volatile week for futures is greeting the weekend with many markets seemingly on the verge of resolving recent trending and targets.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Dipping Thursday didn’t extend down, but it narrowly avoided being recovered high enough to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close. That pessimism does leave the door open to probing a fresh high, and doesn’t require a fresh high to be rejected.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s inside day bounced and ranged sideways, but it is not a buy signal. A probe under Wednesday’s low remains possible, but could easily hold and reverse back up more substantially. That said, not rejecting fresh lows almost immediately would be vulnerable to extending the decline into the weekend.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday reacted up into Wednesday’s range before dipping again, enough to neutralize the attraction to the open’s gap down. A second higher bounce actually filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. But the session ultimately only ranged around the decline’s 1256.00 target that was met already Wednesday. There is no new signal, although back above 1260.00 would at least be vulnerable to a corrective bounce testing 1275.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two consecutive sessions of holding a test of 19.05 support wasn’t going to prevent breaking lower, only make a break lower less likely to extend down. In fact, Thursday’s opening gap down under prior lows to 18.80 was recovered back into positive territory testing 19.05. There is no new signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs Thursday at 139-03 didn’t maintain positive territory to confirm Wednesday’s breakout. No more higher close is required. But reversing the trend down requires closing under 137-27.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday night’s weakness narrowly avoided fulfilling its potential to 102.40 by 20 cents before reversing up sharply through Thursday to attack 104.00, targeting a retest of the 104.50 high.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A blip-up during the EIA release was only several pennies, as was its retracement back into negative territory. There is no new signal to the pattern.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold extended Tuesday’s plunge to fulfill its first objective. Beware that its bounce in this pattern is often fueled by attracting capital from stocks.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s fresh high testing 80.60 can’t justify much delay before extending higher if the rally’s momentum remains intact.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fresh lows Wednesday attacked 1.3575 support that need not be touched for a close back above 1.3640 to suggest a bigger corrective bounce is underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday morning’s fresh lows quickly extended to fulfill the 1256.00 target, which reacted up to attack 1260.00. Its recovery would suggest the decline wasn’t extending to its 1236.50-1244.00 targets until following a bigger corrective bounce.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Losing only a few pennies Wednesday might seem to be a victory compared to Gold extending its drop, but just closing under 19.05 does introduce potential to extend down sharply if not rejected immediately Thursday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 138-04 high’s retest from its 136-12 interim dip was fulfilled Wednesday by the morning’s gap up and surge. That extended intraday to 138-22, and could extend to 139-12 so long as 1237-26 now holds as support. Back under 137-12 would signal momentum reversing back down, much more substantially.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s dip to 103.13 satisfied the 61.8% projection of the prior three sessions’ Head & Shoulders pattern that developed under the rally’s104.50 target. Unless 103.60 were recovered, the pullback should extend to 102.40 where a retest of 104.50 would become likely.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s close above the 4.43 buy signal had extended already to test 4.50, and that improved Wednesday to test 4.61. That level is likely to be tested as support from this upleg’s 4.71 target before extending to fresh highs.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s overnight drop confirms the pattern, right down to the timing and character of triggering its sell signal. The intraday follow-through confirms, as well. Be aware that although there is no precise timing comparison, Gold’s decisive bearish action often seeps into the stock market sooner rather than later.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
A fresh high Tuesday wasn’t quite the breakout or confirmation needed at this stage of the pattern to confirm the recent upward momentum. But an almost immediate reversal down, or else the rejection of initially probing higher, may be the only way to avoid extending the rally through the week.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s probe under Friday’s prior low is not confirmation since Monday’s interim session firmed. But it does inform the pattern’s timing, which should now produce a rally (or try convincingly) on Wednesday, to avoid extending the drop considerably.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
As suspected, the chipped-away 1289.00 sell signal was broken overnight well below its 1285.00 confirmation. Tuesday’s open tested prior lows at 1274.00 and then extended down to 1265.00, targeting 1256.00 and 1236.50-1244.00 so long as 1270.00 isn’t recovered.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another drop back down to critical 19.05 support greeted Tuesday’s open. Closing any lower would target 18.60 and 18.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Relatively flat ranging Tuesday between 106-30 and 137-08 didn’t much respond to the stock market rally. Not reacting down helps to confirm the likelihood for retesting the prior high.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The long-standing 104.50 target was tested for its third consecutive narrowly ranging session Tuesday without either triggering a reaction down or extending higher. While that doesn’t make fresh highs any less likely, it does suggest that fresh highs would be brief without a corrective pullback first.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 4.43 buy signal was probed Tuesday on the way to 4.50. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm that momentum has reversed up.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Trending seemed interested in extending into the weekend in several cases, like the Euro and Gold, but seemed also like the intent was being restrained before the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh highs into the weekend like Friday without trending up intraday are suspicious. But the rally otherwise gets almost every benefit of the doubt.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s fresh low began by gapping down and didn’t trend down intraday. Only by gapping back up and becoming an Island reversal can the downtrend be reversed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s reaction down from the gap up’s 1303.00 resistance test was extended overnight from 1295.00 to once again test 1289.00 support. Its bounce up to 1295.00 was every bit as much noise as was Wednesday’s test of 1295.00. And the potential for trending down sharply overnight remains.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down to fill the gap back at Wednesday’s close did not extend lower intraday. But there is no unfinished business above or other attraction that might prevent extending down to 19.05.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up slightly Friday and trending upward intraday recovered 136-30 to signal the pullback was resolving back up. Confirming above 137-08 would target a retest of recent highs.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 104.50 target had been attacked for several days, but Friday’s high touched it precisely before once again ranging narrowly into the close. The rally’s momentum has lapsed, and no targets are required to be met above. But a downleg won’t be triggered at this stage from above 102.60.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s drop didn’t extend Friday, but neither was it recovered, as the 4.43 buy signal targeting at least 4.71 in an aggressive manner was left untriggered.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Umpteenth time’s a charm, for Gold. Yet another gap up has reversed down through the session.

Today’s Highlight edit

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming back to Wednesday’s high Thursday suggests that the high’s resistance will be probed, at least intraday. It’s very similar to the pattern that had projected last week’s sizable gap would be retraced.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s dip back to Wednesday’s lows almost confirmed the break lower as launching a new downleg. Almost. But no decisively lower consecutive close means the pattern is vulnerable to recovery. But the burden of proof is much more on buyers, as fresh lows have possession.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Again? Thursday’s gap up was the session’s peak, running into the same downtrending resistance that stopped the prior three gaps up. Its reaction down held 1295.00 support. I suspect that if this pattern were going to resolve down, it should resolve down now, and quite possibly overnight. Otherwise,vlosing above 1303.00 would help to foreclose on sellers.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday isn’t necessarily bullish, and its reaction down from there isn’t necessarily bearish. At least the gap up further chipped away at 19.75 resistance, but the risk is otherwise down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s firm open stopped just short of touching the 136-30 buy signal, and drifted lower into the afternoon. The overnight low’s test of 136-08 support wasn’t revisited.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
More narrow sideways action Thursday barely avoided touching the 104.50 target, but also did not reverse the trend down.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA report dropped sharply. Closing back above 4.43 would signal the reaction was a false break and that momentum is reversing up for a new upleg.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…