Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Big opening gaps that originated from neutral postures were likely not to extend, and likely to reverse, which they did. In big ways. Ignoring directional cues for a moment, just recognizing the widespread elasticity is exciting.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
A knee-jerk reaction to BOE and ECB moves was likely to reverse, and Thursday’s gap up did reverse — not only back down to Wednesday’s close, but also back under the week’s lows, and then filling the gap back to last Friday’s close (which was lower). That’s a lot of energy to expend in a single session, but beware of extending down further without delay, which currencies are unique in tending to do.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A knee-jerk reaction to BOE and ECB moves was likely to reverse, and Thursday’s gap down did reverse back upto Wednesday’s close. That level equated essentially to last Friday’s close, which was being probed as resistance. That’s a lot of energy to expend so quickly, but that doesn’t prevent extending higher — so long as the pattern extends higher without delay.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up from testing 1241.00-1244.00 spent the session hovering just under the 1256.00 level that was the decline’s first target. It wasn’t really probed intraday, so holding its close doesn’t necessarily suggest that buyers are done. But the gap back to Wednesday’s close will need to be filled at some point regardless of the resolution.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday left behind an Ascending Triangle whose low is likely to be retested to form a more durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An attempt to extend down further Thursday ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report was reversed into positive territory. No specific reaction is likelier than another, and the recent drop does allow room for a bigger corrective bounce, but the pattern is not bullish ultimately.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having reversed so much gain Wednesday back into negative territory, the optimism of narrowly avoiding a touch of 102.40 support — let alone probing it — suggested the next move could be sharply lower. Thursday’s open did gap down sharply, but it was recovered to test 102.40 and 102.65 resistance, both of which held to suggest a bigger decline is underway.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up didn’t prevent a deeply negative reaction to EIA. It touched an uptrending support that I pointed out in the Chartroom should be supportive, and its test was recovered to fresh highs. The 4.71 minimum objective remains in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Publication note: Thursday’s issue should keep its normal schedule, but Friday’s will come much after the close. Thank you for your patience Tuesday and Wednesday!

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s drop had retraced 61.8% of the surge to fresh highs. Wednesday’s bounce filled the gap back to the high close, testing 80.65. It’s an interesting spot to be greeting Thursday’s BOE and ECB announcements, having neutralized the attraction above, without creating any new objective either above or below. The first trending attempt or knee-jerk reaction will be suspicious.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dip filled the gap back down to Monday’s close around 1.3600.  It’s an interesting spot to be greeting Thursday’s BOE and ECB announcements, having neutralized the attraction below, without creating any new objective either above or below. The first trending attempt or knee-jerk reaction will be suspicious.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The calm is eerie after having plunged into the weekend, and then extending lower into the new week, with Thursday’s BOE and ECB decisions just hours away.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Three consecutive sessions have ranged narrowly within Friday’s range, probably a false bravado that won’t avoid a fresh low either in immediate reaction to Thursday’s BOE and ECB decisions, or else in resolution to a knee-jerk reaction up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The drop extended to 135-00 Wednesday, now being more likely to extend down at an accelerated pace, and less likely to recover. Regardless, the path remains down so long as 136-18 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping up Wednesday to 103.15 and extending higher to test 103.70 also filled the gap back to last Thursday’s close. Its natural resistance reversed the afternoon to fill the gap back down Tuesday’s close around 102.50. I’d like to say that at least 102.40 held, but it wasn’t even touched. That optimism might prove to be a lost cause, so be prepared for trending down to fresh lows Thursday and into the weekend.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming slightly Wednesday was all it took to retest the ~4.65 knee-jerk reaction high to last Thursday’s EIA report. A positive and durable reaction remains the likeliest scenario.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping down and extending sdown Tuesday retraced 16.8% of the rally from last week’s low. That’s natural support, so a bounce to 80.65 would be likely.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s bounce held prior highs. Not having gained traction, the prior lows has a chance to hold as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still hovering at 1244.00 and 1241.00 targets, without reacting up. Fresh lows should be part of the equation, and vulnerable to reversing up.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dull markets didn’t leave any position for the day.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from last week’s 138-1 0 high extended down near 135-10 Friday. A momentary pre-open bounce held 136-18 resistance.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still testing 102.40 support after so long probably isn’t just testing 102.40 support. It may be chipping away, intending to break lower. A rally should be underway Wednesday if valid.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pattern continues to improve as 4.61 and 4.71 resistance come into play ahead of this week’s EIA report.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The Euro and Pound were modestly weaker Monday, but other currencies broke lower, driving the Dollar index above prior highs. RSIs deteriorated upon probing fresh highs, which is not a sell signal, but does help a dip back under support to extend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Price action was among the least volatile currencies Monday, but still depressed throughout the day as last week’s low was retested. No new sponsorship for the decline was detected, so probing lower Tuesday might find too much pessimism being expressed so close to Thursday’s ECB and BOE decisions.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s plunge consolidated into Monday, ranging narrowly around the 1244.00 target that was tested Friday. The 1248.00 resistance held a test intraday, leaving the door open to a fresh low at 1236.50 which would satisfy all calculable selling pressure without a corrective bounce.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s inside day began by gapping up and peaked upon touching four-week old “higher prior lows” at 18.86. Bounces have room up to 19.05 without invalidating last week’s break lower. Momentum doesn’t reverse up without also recovering 19.20.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from last week’s 138-10 high extended back to the 136-08 buy signal that had produced it. There is no bullish reason to retrace this deeply or to revisit this area, so any bounce would now be likely to fail and to produce a new downleg. And bounces could peak as low as 136-18.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s bounce was appropriately timed for not delaying another recovery attempt after Friday’s dip back down to 102.40. But the bounce disappeared into Monday’s open and reversed into negative territory to 102.10. A recovery isn’t entirely discounted without yet decisively breaking under 102.40, which was being tested as resistance into the close, but a recovery has become more difficult without yet being obvious through Tuesday’s open.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firmed Monday to recover a little more of the reaction down from Thursday’s EIA report, back up to 4.61 resistance. Enough time has passed since then that stopping short of touching Thursday’s high is considered pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s dip doesn’t yet reverse momentum down, but creates extra room to absorb an attempt to resume the rally. And Friday’s trending tends to be duplicated Monday morning, making a recovery more difficult.Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday continued Thursday’s firming back up to higher prior lows at 1.3650. A reversal need have been aggressive at this stage, so despite the potential for a brief probe of fresh lows, be careful if short.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After ignoring two opportunities to produce a corrective bounce Thursday, the decline extended to probe the 1236.50-1244.00 target area down to 1242.00 Friday ahead of the weekend. Back above 1256.00 would signal the decline had ended.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s bounce back up to 19.05 resistance reacted down Friday to fresh lows at 18.60. Back above 19.25 would signal a new upleg underway, at least targeting 20.50 while a bigger bottom forms.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s extension of Thursday’s weakness held the 137-27 pullback limit and reacted up. But the potential for reversing down is in-play so long as 138-18 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s bounce was retraced entirely by Friday’s gap down. The 102.40 pullback limit that had been avoided by 20 cents was touched, and held. The afternoon ranged around Thursday’s low, which must hold for Friday’s dip to be part of the original pullback, instead of a new downleg.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s muted reaction down from the EIA report extended slighlty lower Friday to test 4.50, but recovered back above Thursday’s low to suggest it was only more noise.

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