Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Crude Oil making moves. Both were underway before the pre-open PPI surprise.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging session didn’t probe fresh highs. The potential setup for rejecting a fresh high intraday is repeated for Thursday.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s setup created potential for a fresh low Wednesday that would be recovered. Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t probe a fresh low, but it certainly didn’t extend the decline. The same setup opportunity is in-play for Thursday, a momentary fresh low that recovers to close positive.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight rally held 1309.50 resistance but its reaction down also held 1303.00 support. Back under 1301.70 would signal another gap up having failed. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close would target 1328.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction down from Wednesday’s gap up to 20.00 held 19.75 as support. A second consecutive higher close preferably above 20.20, would signal that a  bigger move targeting the 21.00 area is underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s recovery to 136-00 resistance extended sharply higher Wednesday, back to last week’s high and through it to . I have no active signal at this stage of the pattern.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally targeting a probe above 104.00‘s prior high extended immediately Wednesday by surging through 102.00, nearing some obligatory resistance at 103.00, with pullbacks needing to hold 101.40 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s opening bounce was retraced entirely and not recovered again. Interesting that pessimism is dominant at this relevant level just before Thursday’s EIA report, which could prove to be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Is crude oil finally making its move? That move is assumed to be up, in-line with ongoing expectations to retest recent highs. But look out below if Tuesday’s rally attempt were to fail immediately.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having consolidated the prior two sessions’ drop on Monday, Tuesday resumed the decline. At least one more fresh high in the sequence is likely.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s muted strength only consolidated the decline, which resumed aggressively into Tuesday’s open. The afternoon’s fresh lows suggest follow-through on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the three-day sequence suggests that a lower low on Wednesday would finish to close positive.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s test of 1303.00 resistance was retraced down to 1289.00 support overnight. It held a retest at Tuesday’s open to launch an intraday bounce to 1299.00. Breaking beyond either end of the range is still likely to extend about $10 in that direction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s subdued narrow ranging suggested that a fresh high remains likely, presumably to test 19.75, before a reversal down could be credible. Closing above 19.75 would signal a new rally leg underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
My criticism of Monday’s break under the 135-16 sell signal was that it wasn’t very aggressive, despite extending to 135-05. Tuesday’s bounce up to 136-00 confirmed as much. The sell signal’s leve remains unchanged.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight strength to 101.00 held its dip as support after gapping up, then extended higher intraday in what has been the best attempt off recent lows to launch a rally leg.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline’s 4.41 target was met overnight and reacted up at Tuesday’s open. The opening bounce failed and new lows printed intraday. Potential for extending to 4.24 so long as 4.44 now holds as resistance.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The new week seems not to be starting anything new, and more so the various market area getting comfortable with their new ranges.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
A little hesitation greeted the new week following the two-day surge from Thursday’s lows. Monday’s dip didn’t reverse the trend down, and at least a fresh relative high remains likely near-term. Friday’s close was soon recovered.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s opening bounce was more noise than relevant, and didn’t affect the drop’s likelihood of resuming. In fact, it was rejected, if only to retest Friday’s close.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight surge tested 1303.00 resistance, but drifted back down intraday to 1295.00. Breaking either way beyond that range is likely to extend at least $10 in that direction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After Friday’s dip only touched 19.05 whose break would have launched a new downleg, Monday’s gap up immediately filled the gap back to last Tuesday’s toppy close at 19.65. There was no improvement intraday, not even a fresh high to reject. Pullbacks should now hold 19.30 to keep alive potential for resuming the rally.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s drift lower probed under the 133-16 135-16 sell signal to 133-05 135-05. A second consecutive lower close would confirm that 132-04 is in-play.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight strength tried again — unsuccessfully, again — to rally from the previously triggered 100.00 through 101.00 resistance to launch a rally targeting fresh highs above 104.00. Trying keeps alive the pattern, but almost any hesitation would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The new week didn’t take any time delaying last week’s triggered sell signals that are targeting 4.41. Fresh lows came within 2 cents, which is close enough to qualify, but the downtrend remains intact so long as 4.48 holds  as resistance.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies not only extended Thursday’s plunges overnight and on Friday, but also essentially duplicated them. At least, in degree. But the selling pressure was productive, closing under prior lows, and potentially reversing trends down.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s intraday reversal extended up overnight and intraday to attack 80.00. While that is in-line with the bigger picture that a bottom is forming, the immediacy surprises me. Back under 79.78 would signal a corrective dip underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The immediate overnight extension of Thursday’s intraday reversal to attack seemed impatient, albeit productive. Gapping down under the previous 3-week long consolidation helps to confirm the topping. But near-term it becomes vulnerable to a bounce testing 1.3805 or 1.3855 as resistance.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging avoided triggering a sell signal under 1285.00, but also undermined Thursday’s bounce attempt.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s dip touched the 19.05 support whose break would otherwise signal a new downleg underway. The touch held, so far.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s weakness attacked the 135-16 signal whose break would trigger at least a temporary downleg.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another bounce Thursday night kept alive the on-again / off-again sequence for launching a retest of the recent 104.00 high. Intraday action furthered the sequence by reacting back down from 101.00 to  100.00, which the pattern must hold as support.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s plunge extended down further Friday to within 9 cents of its 4.41 target, now requiring that bounces hold 4.55 as resistance.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight I’ve commented previously on the oddity of currencies lacking volatility amid Precious Metals and other complexes’ wide swings. They have now made up for that.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
ECB and BOE rate decisions triggered a plunge Thursday morning to 78.90 that was reversed dramatically up to what was the decline’s original 79.40 target. The basket is mixed, with European currencies producing most of the downward pressure. A reaction down toward Thursday’s low is likelier than a an immediate recovery.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
ECB and BOE rate decisions triggered a surge Thursday morning to 1.3990 that was reversed dramatically down to 1.3845, well into negative territory. A bounce back up to the rally’s original 1.3855 target is likelier than simply extending down without hesitation.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight bouncing from Wednesday’s test of 1289.00 support was reversed to fresh lows Thursday testing 1285.00, closing between them to avoid signaling a new downleg underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s drop down to 19.15 didn’t have much regard for Wednesday’s dip holding its 61.8% retracement. Closing under 19.05 would trigger a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The attraction to one more fresh high at 136-20 was pierced by 2 ticks Thursday morning. With no higher attraction outstanding, the target’s test reacted down sharply to 135-23. Extending under 135-18 to signal momentum reversing down might be difficult as falling stocks start a “flight-to-safety” that tends to favor bonds..

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s dip didn’t damage the recovery attempt, but confirming Wednesday’s surge would have been optimal for the pattern that still expects the recent 104.00 high to be retested. But holding 100.00 is not negotiable to maintaining the bullish scenario.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing to 4.80 resistance failed to gain traction ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, which triggered a reaction back down through the 4.71 signal and the 4.61 sell signal, targeting 4.41.

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