Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold slipped and Crude Oil firmed. Neither would be very relevant, alone or together, except for this instance in which each is possibly turning a corner. Any lower in Gold on Thursday and any higher in Crude Oil would trigger relatively sizable moves underway for each.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming Wednesday didn’t gain traction to reverse up, but it also prevented confirming that Tuesday’s drop would have much more momentum. Nevertheless, a fresh low Thursday is likely, perhaps also a lower close, although it would not likely be confirmed Friday.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s sizable gap up was only consolidated Wednesday, and not retraced back to support. By the same token, the trending’s momentum wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. There is no active signal, but there is a likelihood for probing fresh highs — if not also for closing higher — on Thursday.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s eventual decline probed under 1289.00 support to confirm the probe above 1303.00 was not a new rally leg. The drop attacked 1285.00, whose break would signal the decline had resumed.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Three days of consolidating at or under 19.75 resistance finally resolved down to test 19.30 support. Being a 61.8% retracement of the bounce to 19.75, immediately recovering or at least consolidating is likely.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s narrowly ranging session was resisted by 136-08 resistance, which should still be probed up to at least 136-20 before being vulnerable to reversing down.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 101.40 obligatory resistance was recovered yet again Wednesday, this time on the way to 101.00, signaling the move to retest 104.00 is underway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming above 4.82 ahead of Wednesday’s open never extended higher intraday before reversing right back down to 4.71 support, whose break would still signal momentum reversing down.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Did currencies and Gold have some sort of a falling out? They seem not to be acknowledging each other’s presence lately. Gold’s recent dive barely registered among currencies, while currencies more recent surges had no effect on Gold. Their delayed movements are not reactions, at all. And now both seem to have stretched their bounces thinly.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The attraction to new lows was overshot by an overnight plunge to 79.09. Now the downside’s original 79.40 target is likely to be tested as resistance, and its recovery would signal a bottom forming.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Rallying sharply overnight far exceeded the outstanding 1.3915 prior high’s retest on the way to 1.3950. Now that lower prior high is likely to be retested as support, regardless of the eventual resolution.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s rally did not extend higher Tuesday, but only ranged narrowly instead of reversing momentum down. This setup actually makes Wednesday likelier to probe Monday’s highs. Not probing fresh highs would be bearish, almost qualifying as its own sell signal.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up never extended above Monday’s highs, or through 19.75 resistance. Nor did it dip only pennies to fill the gap back to Monday’s close. This “ineffectual optimism” isn’t necessarily bearish, but it does still require a rally session to begin by gapping up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s dip to Thursday’s 135-25 high as support reacted up Tuesday through 136-00, still targeting at least one more fresh high at 136-20.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s dip back to prior lows was recovered intraday to test Sunday night’s 100.40 high. Obligatory resistance there triggered a reaction back down under 100.00, which remains likely to recover and resume the rally. The pattern has no sell signal.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up back above Monday’s range helps to reject its dip back under the 4.71 sell signal. But not entirely, not without also recovering 4.80, which held as resistance.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight There wasn’t any buyer’s remorse — or seller’s remorse, for that matter — after having a weekend to reconsider reactions to Friday’s Employment Situation report. But there might after some of Monday’s moves , like Gold’s weak gain and Crude Oil’s hesitation to rally.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging Monday didn’t offer any new signals or confirmation. Equally important, it didn’t invalidate the attraction to fresh lows under 79.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Narrow sideways ranging greeted the new week, which isn’t in itself predictive, but the potential retest of prior highs at 1.3915 remains intact.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally through 1303.00 tested 1315.00, which was retested after Monday’s open. The balance of the session drifted narrowly arond 1310.00. A second consecutive higher close would signal momentum had reversed up, but I’m still skeptical, and closing back under 1298.00-1300.00 would start to invalidate the recovery’s momentum.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up peaked immediately at 19.75 resistance, and drifted back to almost unchanged. Extending higher in this setup is unlikely without gapping up above Monday’s high.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s new high was retraced Monday to test Thursday’s 135-25 high as support. Back above 135-30 would target a fresh high at 136-20 for the next opportunity to form a top.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight strength to 100.40 was retraced Monday back to Friday’s 98.90 lows, where RSIs diverged positively. Back above 100.00 should now trigger a rally targeting a retest of the 104.00 high.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Spiking up Monday was reversed immediately as the balance of the session trended back down to Friday’s close, under the 4.71 sell signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Employment Situation report. That was pretty much Friday’s story, except for several significant reversals. That should keep things volatile coming into the new week.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having fulfilled almost all of the downside targets through Thursday, Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report surged from 79.55 to 79.93. That filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close, which sent price back down all the way. Fresh lows under 79.40 seem a minimal requirement at this point.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s reaction down to the Employment Situation report filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 1.3810 close. That quickly recovered to the rally’s original 1.3885 target. A probe of prior highs at 1.3915 is now likely.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s plunge in reaction to the Employment Situation report originated from an opening bounce to 1285.00 resistance. The low attacked the gap back to the prior Thursday’s 1270.40 open, and then reacted up to 1305.00. The 1303.00 resistance was still being tested at the close, so no buy signal triggered. A lot of buying pressure was expended before a solid bottom could form. The door is open to rallying, but back under 1289.00 and 1285.00 would target new lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The Employment Situation report’s reaction surged to within a nickel of 19.75 resistance. Almost any higher would have reversed the trend. Instead, the bounce did create room to absorb another downdraft that retests the low so a better bottom could form.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled the rally’s sole objective to probe prior highs, the Employment Situation report’s reaction easily tumbled 1-1/4 points to 134-16. That also represented what has become “lower prior highs,” whose test as support launched a 2-point rally to fresh highs at 136-16, with further room up to 137-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Not much volatility greeted the weekend, but exiting it by recovering 100.50-100.65 would signal a probe of the 104.00 high underway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gradual slide under 4.71 support puts into play tests of 4.61 and potentially also 4.41, so long as 4.71  now holds as resistance.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s fresh lows put into play lower lows, which suggests it won’t attract capital away from other markets. But if the sell signal were invalidated, then other asset classes like stocks could suffer from the competition.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Both 79.55 and under 79.40 targets were tested almost entirely Thursday morning. Neither closing lower nor reacting up issued no new directional signal ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The  1.3885  target was pierced only slightly Thursday, leaving outstanding the potential to 1.3915. Its test isn’t required, but no reversal signal has been triggered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having chipped away already at 1285.00-1289.00 support, Thursday’s open gapped down to and through it to attack 1277.00. So long as 1285.00 isn’t recovered, the break is targeting 1256.00 and 1236.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s opening spike down extended through last Thursday’s 19.04 opening gap. Still testing last Thursday’s 19.00 low instead of closing decisively below it has created potential for recovering from a fresh low intraday. But bouncing first would likely be only temporary.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The two-day detour to 133-25, which had held its 134-10 pullback limit, was proved finally Thursday by surging above prior highs to 135-28. The new pullback limit is 135-16, but the upside objective to probe prior highs is fulfilled.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A dip to fresh lows at 98.25 recovered, and may yet form an accumulative pattern that requires probing fresh highs above 104.00. But no other signal is active than a previous outstanding likelihood for retesting 104.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA dipped back to 4.70, which wasn’t terribly bearish and only undermined the recent bounce’s momentum. Any lower close Friday would trigger a deeper pullback.

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