Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s volatility is within a recent range, while Currencies are volatile around their recent ranges. But each reflects very divergent opinion in the markets, likely to launch trends.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s retracement back into the range needed to reverse back down without delay to maintain the signal triggered by Monday’s break, and Wednesday’s gap down complied. A second consecutive lower close would now confirm the pattern targeting 79.55 and under 79.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s breakout targeting 1.3885 and 1.3915 was retraced back into the range Tuesday, and then resumed immediately Wednesday as the pattern required in order to remain valid. Now a second consecutive higher close would confirm.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s quick bounce from testing 1285.00-1289.00 support was too optimistic to be bullish. An overnight drop retracing the the bounce proved as much, and its reaction up was also retraced intraday. Closing above 1303.00 would be bullish, but meanwhile an eventual drop under 1285.00 resuming the decline has become likely.

Silver July Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s dip further below 19.75 makes a retest of Friday’s 19.04 opening gap down likely at some point in this leg.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s bounce up to 134-30 confirmed that Tuesday’s drop which held the 134-10 pullback limit was only a detour on the way to new highs above 135-10. The next confirmation? New highs above 135-10.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Dipping Wednesday to 99.35 after Tuesday’s failed surge above 102.00 doesn’t help to resume the bounce for a retest of the highs above 104.00. The reversal down is probably premature to launch a new downleg, at least this dip, so I have no signal either way at this time.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning’s dip was recovered back up to Tuesday’s highs, positioned to greet Thursday’s EIA report without much pessimism.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The various percolation continued Tuesday, ahead of this week’s FOMC, BOE, ECB and NFP.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s opening surge and its subsequent retest held a 61.8% retracement back to the range’s week-old high. There’s a little room higher for noise, but otherwise no reason to further delay resuming Monday’s break through the range’s lower-end and then extend back to 79.55 and under 79.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down extended to retrace 61.8% of the recent range from Monday’s probe above it. That should be the bounce’s peak if Monday’s break lower was not a false break, and if it will resume and extend to 1.3885 and 1.3915.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The deeper dip targeting 1285.00-1289.00 didn’t wait long at all to be met. Neither did its reaction back. The dip took place Monday night, and the bounce back to 1300.00 was fulfilled through the open. That was too quick. Closing above 1303.00 would be credible for launching a new upleg, but any delay is likelier to drift back down to 1285.00, and possibly through it.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing from Tuesday’s gap down stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close, which doesn’t reverse momentum up, but reflects patient buyers.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Perhaps Tuesday’s gap down was just defensive posturing ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news. Regardless, it trended back up from the opening tick, and managed to close back above the 134-10 pullback limit. While the gap down isn’t necessarily bullish, the recovery does keep alive the attraction to at least probe a fresh high.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A bounce Tuesday to 102.20 was retraced almost entirely back down to Monday’s 100.80-100.90 close. There is no room or time for further delaying a more substantial bounce targeting a retest of April’s highs above 104.00, or else a deeper decline could gain traction.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up to prior highs testing 4.80 firmed throughout the day to 4.85, clearly avoiding any sell signal. This setup in this market can extend indefinitely while leaving plenty of unfinished business below outstanding, so I would not try to short the strength.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies had been ranging sideways and narrowly for a couple of weeks, seemingly ignoring all about them who were losing their heads. They’ve finally started trying to trend, just ahead of FOMC, BOE/ECB, and NFP.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Currencies finally broke out of their ranging. The breaks came too late to assume they are false, but there is room for the Dollar index down to 79.55 regardless, if not also new lows under 79.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The extended narrow ranging finally broke, and it was higher. It is too late in the pattern to assume the breakout is false, but the breakout attempt should test 1.3885 above regardless of its ultimate resolution, and potentially also 1.3915.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s dip back into Thursday’s range bounced from 1292.00 to 1299.00. The dip and relatively shallow recovery still undermine the near-term recovery potential without a deeper dip first testing 1285.00-1289.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy ranging around 19.75 failed Monday to reverse the trend up, but also kept alive the recovery potential.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down tested lower prior highs at 134-18 down to the 134-10 pullback limit and recovered both back above 134-26. I would expect fresh highs to be tested so long as 134-18 now holds as support.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Narrow ranging on Monday didn’t offer any better timing to resolving the current pullback from 104.00, which can still be retested up to 104.50.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday retested last week’s highs around 4.80 and held. Back under 4.71 would trigger a deeper drop, but there is no assurance of even attempting to trigger it.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Has Gold turned a corner, even temporarily? That, or a corrective bounce is ending. The next week’s trending should be able to gain traction.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s narrow ranging still leaves no patter or active setup.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s narrow ranging still leaves no patter or active setup.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s stunning reversal extended higher overnight to greet Friday ranging around Thursday’s 1299.00 highs, where the balance of the session remained. There is no buy setup, and a dip to at least 1285.00 is likely.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still ranging at or around 19.75 resistance Friday prevents a new upleg from getting underway. So does the gap back down to Thursday’s open, which should be filled first.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up at Friday’s open extended intraday to retest recent highs at 135-08. The recovery doesn’t qualify as a buy signal, and back under 134-06 is still the nearest sell signal.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Further weakness into the weekend wasn’t deep enough to signal momentum reversing down, leaving the door open to a bounce back to 104.50 before a downleg would be credible.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down extended lower to 4.64 into the weekend. Under 4.62 would signal the pullback extending to 4.41.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold. That’s all. The bearish pattern seems to have culminated in a gap down testing “lower prior highs” that triggered a stunning reversal into positive territory. But that was too bullish, too soon, from too high. Meanwhile, the end of a Gold downleg can mean trouble for stocks.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Metals fluctuating widely, but currencies aren’t budging. Still no signal.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The range is no longer narrowing, so the first trending attempt won’t be any more or less likely to be false.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down sharply Thursday from Wednesday’s test of the 1285.00 bounce limit tested 1268.50 and then reacted up even more sharply to 1299.00. The balance of the session’s ranging was supported by Wednesday’s ~1289.00 highs. Back under 1285.00 would target a retest of Thursday’s opening gap.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down spiked back up above Wednesday’s range, holding 19.75 to avoid triggering a recovery. The open’s gap will want to be filled at some future point, preferably sooner rather than later to form a durable bottom and to generate a new signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Thursday to 134-00 was the first part of a bearish setup that required extending down intraday. At least, not rallying. But the gap did bounce back into Wednesday’s range to attack its 134-18 high. Breaking back under 134-00 would still be bearish. There is not otherwise an active signal, although fresh highs aren’t out of the question.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s narrow ranging continues to suggest that a reversal down is premature, but I would still be interested in selling a fresh high’s first failure back under prior highs.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s optimistic hovering ahead of Thursday’s EIA report didn’t prove too fateful, as the session only ranged back down from 4.80 to 4.68.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…