Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Fear of follow-through defined Wednesday’s price action. From initial trending, to ongoing trends, nothing much changed from Tuesday. Calm before a storm?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Another gap open Wednesday reversed right back into the range. Still no signal, other than to consider fading the first break.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Another gap open Wednesday reversed right back into the range. Still no signal, other than to consider fading the first break.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up extended to probe the 1285.00 bounce limit by $4 while essentially ranging around it, and while supported by the gap back down to Tuesday’s close.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firmer price action Wednesday didn’t reflect any credible effort to launch a rally, although there is no unfinished business below to prevent it, only a bearish Gold pattern.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap up above the 134-00 bounce limit and ranging between 134-04/134-18 was not in-line with the expectations for continuing to lower lows targeting 133-06 and 132-06. But dropping back under 134-00 Thursday would be expected to resume that drop.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Narrow ranging Wednesday after Tuesday’s drop helps to confirm that some sort of corrective bounce is likely before a bigger downleg were to extend.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to the recent narrow range’s upper-end didn’t extend higher, nor was it rejected, one day prior to the weekly EIA report. Last week’s was received bullishly, so Wednesday’s levitation is optimistic.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Not only a big drop in Gold Tuesday, but a break to new lows. Crude Oil joined in, too, although not yet triggering a sell signal. Perhaps that explains why Currencies haven’t much budged… yet.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap down was recovered to fill the gap back to Monday’s close, which wasn’t much higher, but at least its attraction above was neutralized so that a drive to fresh lows would be more credible.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday held within the recent range above the pattern’s 1.3795 support, becoming a little less likely for its initial break to be false and temporary.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Momentary strength Tuesday up to 1293.10 was rejected on the way to fresh lows under 1276.00, probing under April’s lows. now requiring bounces to hold 1285.00 for the decline to extend to 1265.00 and 1256.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging didn’t exploit the neutralized retest of the low. But neither did it trend down with Gold, maintaining its bottoming potential.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday extended Monday’s reaction down from testing higher prior lows at 134-10 to fresh lows at 133-14, still targeting at least 133-06 so long as 134-00 now holds as resistance.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight weakness extended down intraday to suggest the rally’s 104.00 target had held (105.00 basis May). June’s discount has all but disappeared. A bounce above 102.65 would be likely to launch the next downleg, so long as 103.10 then held as resistance. Just extending down without first bouncing wouldn’t be very credible.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow inside day didn’t offer any new clues, other than to further suggest that an outstanding corrective dip is inhibiting the rally effort.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight A skittish start to the week found most markets unwilling to trend. Even Gold, which gapped traded down sharply overnight, managed a bounce that filled the open’s gap back up to Thursday’s high. If expiration and the holiday weekend inhibited volatility, then the balance of the week should pick up the pace significantly.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip above the recent narrow range only offset Thursday’s momentary probe under it. But extending any higher to 80.15 would qualify as a false break that could then react down more substantially to fresh lows.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s opening surge had been retraced before the weekend, and then it extended down deeper into the new week. The recent narrow range hasn’t yet been broken substantially enough in either direction to qualify even as a false break. But a false break remains likely.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s opening gap spiked down to immediately retest last week’s plunge, confirming that the interim bounce had held resistance. The gap back up to Thursday’s close was filled, and could be exceeded to include “higher prior lows” around 1298.00. But a drop to new lows remains likely.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday settled very quickly into a relatively narrow range just under 19.40. That neutralized the gap back down to last Tuesday’s opening gap. It’s not a buy signal, but now a buy signal would be credible.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce held “higher prior lows” at 134-10 and reacted down. Closing under 134-06 should then leave no upside attractions to further delay extending a much deeper drop targeting at least 132-10.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night weakness wasn’t very weak, and Monday weakness wasn’t weak at all. The extended narrowing range at 104.50-105.00 suggests the first trending attempt will be a false break that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight attempts to extend higher weren’t duplicated intraday Monday, and the recent bounce remains vulnerable to being retraced.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s drop into the long weekend suggests a lack of tension. So does Crude Oil’s bounce, which held both recent highs and the rally’s target.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s initial bounce didn’t get very far before dipping back to unchanged, still likely to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Consolidation around 1.3800 support had gone nowhere, making a bounce back to 1.3900 likelier. Thursday’s initial bounce didn’t get too far before proving it wasn’t that attempt.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s dip attacked 1292.00 to suggest that the bounce had ended, and that momentum is reversing down, which is credible so long as not recovered Monday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Thursday didn’t resume the decline but still avoided recovering, no doubt hampered by Gold retracing its bounce from fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s drop broke under the 133-28 pullback limit to signal the launch of a new downleg, which should now hold any test of 134-06 as resistance.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Retesting recent highs Thursday helps to confirm that it was otherwise premature to sell weakness, but now the pattern would be vulnerable to reversing down back under 102.60.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Only a little more weakness preceded Thursday’s spike up in reaction to the day’s EIA report. That’s premature to have confidence in a new upleg underway, but there is no signal in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil met a big target Wednesday, again. Its first test last week was nominal, and this week’s was thorough, while both reacted down. Extending higher is still possible until this proves it is topping.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t extend the sudden bounce from retesting prior lows, suggesting a fresh low will print.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Still ranging narrowly around 1.3800 support suggests that the initial trending attempt away from it is likely to fail, whether a bounce to 1.3900 or a break lower to 1.3755.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ranging relatively widely sideways Wednesday helps to absorb the shock to the system of Tuesday’s plunge, which is still likely to resolve down to new lows.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s strength held 19.75 resistance but also avoided confirming Tuesday’s break under prior lows. Monitoring for the potential that a bottom is forming.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s opening weakness held above 134-06, as did the last dip. And Wednesday’s test also bounced ineffectually, this time filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Back under 134-06 would be bearish.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Last week’s overnight probe into the rally’s 104.50-105.00 target area was retested intraday, and overnight up to 105.00. Wednesday’s gap up above prior highs could be retested before momentum reverses down, but it’s not necessary. However, reversing down immediately now would be premature.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s drop back down to 4.55 wasn’t recovered Wednesday, continuing to suggest that a deeper pullback is underway targeting 4.37.

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