Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s big drop confirmed the recent rally was only a correction. Can Crude Oil be very far behind, having found it difficult to extend through its own resistance?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday did not extend Monday’s break higher, but it did coagulate there to possibly help a dip to recover from fresh lows.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Slightly lower lows Tuesday fully tested the 1.3800 pullback target that Monday’s drop had only attacked.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s attempt to extend above 1317.00-1323.50 was rejected overwhelmingly by an overnight crash back down to 1284.50. The corrective rally is done, and the decline has resumed. Tuesday’s backing-and-filling up to 1305.00 would be free to resume the decline.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s recovery from gapping down wasn’t repeated by Tuesday’s gapping down, which is also testing critical support at 19.75 to keep alive potential for extending up to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow dip avoided 134-06 and extended to fresh highs Tuesday at 135-10, settling back under 135-00. RSIs diverging negatively suggest that any dip back under would reverse momentum down. Closing back under 134-06 would reverse the trend down, too.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s reaction down from the overnight test of 104.55 didn’t extend very far before at least bouncing back into the range. A more thorough test of 104.50-105.00 remains likely before any durable drop can begin.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up from Monday’s pullback only filled the gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction above. The reversal back down to Monday’s close neutralized that attraction below. Extending back down would still target fulfilling the 4.37 pullback potential.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold is pushing the limit of its rally. So is Crude Oil, and the long-bond. Someone’s not telling the truth.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Duplicating Friday’s action Monday morning wasn’t retraced in the afternoon. A fresh low is still all but require to form a durable bottom.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s open attacked the test of 1.3800 support, and so did the balance of the session. There is no requirement to fill the gap back to Friday’s close above. Its break would extend the decline, and fast.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1317.00-1323.50 resistance finally broke higher Monday, testing 1330.00 overnight. It wasn’t exceeded intraday, a lack of follow-through that must be resolved by trending intraday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down was recovered Monday bounced sharply off of 19.75 support to avoid closing negative. That also created a requirement to extend higher with almost no delay to avoid a more durable break lower.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The flight-to-safety has run its course, but pullbacks Monday still avoided touching the critical 134-06 support that had attracted price higher during the latest rally leg. That optimism suggests that the next downleg could begin abruptly.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs overnight tested 104.55 which wasn’t repeated intraday. It should be. And that retest’s resolution would all but determine the pattern’s next objective, and even its direction.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 4.55 pullback target was revisited by gapping down to test it. Closing any lower would target 4.37, but it is premature otherwise to add a buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s upward momentum didn’t hurt its chances for overshooting its target Thursday and Friday. But the extra push was exemplary of situations that are impacted by other influences in-line with the pattern.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Friday starts to lay the groundwork for a bottom pattern that would recover from probing fresh lows Monday intraday. Otherwise, not probing fresh lows Monday morning would instead be vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Choppiness Friday suggests resistance will hold, or at least a temporary pullback will get underway, targeting a test of 1.3800 support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday extended the rally’s consolidation, which was still supported by 1317.00 and ranging up to 1823.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s surge consolidated Friday, still having potential for extending higher to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Continued stock market weakness Friday encouraged more flight-to-quality that extended the rally to new highs at 134-28. The pattern is next targeting 135-18 so long as 134-06 now holds as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs tested 104.44 Friday and closed at new trend highs to make any immediate dip unlikely to gain traction.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s slight pullback helps to confirm that Thursday’s high may have held resistance, but 4.55 and 4.38 remain targeted by the pullback.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s rally might not be done, but its predictable stage is. That much we knew at the open. At the close we knew the rally had not extended above its target. That is one step removed from being a sell signal, which it will become if Friday isn’t extending Gold much higher.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
All of a three-week rally was retraced back to its origin by Thursday’s low, which was the low so far of a one-week drop. There is no reason why the pattern should avoid probing even lower lows, although there is no requirement not to bounce first.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Near-term downside had been invalidated above 1.3755-1.3760, but the pattern never offered a credible buy signal on its way up to 1.3900. The test of higher-prior lows is difficult to extend higher without any accumulation behind it, which is only nominal.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight probing well above 1317.00 to 1325.00 had fulfilled the pattern’s objective, and then some. The balance of the session was flat, supported just above 1317.00, with no new signal in-play.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Yet another retest of 19.75 support Wednesday reacted up, but Thursday’s recovery was the most substantial of the sequence yet, and the closest to fulfill the attraction outstanding above at 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 134-06 gap was filled finally. Between that momentum, a successful auction, and Thursday’s broader market weakness that inspired a flight-to-safety, the pattern extended to fresh highs. A pullback to 134-06 is likely, but also likely to hold if tested.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Narrow ranging Thursday didn’t extend the rally, but also held the tight 103.25 pullback limit. Dipping would be that much less likely to reverse the rally’s momentum.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still no pullback. Au contraire. Reaction to Thursday’s EIA surged to 4.70. A pullback to 4.55 would be normal for this pattern, even in the most bullish scenario.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s surge through its target may have entrenched the upleg so that it can afford to pause momentarily.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s break extended lower Wednesday, confirmed at least one more lower close is in-play.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s bounce extended higher  Wednesday, especially after the FOMC Minutes, making last week’s confirmed breakout unlikely to resume without first forming a new distributive pattern.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight retest of Monday’s night higher formed a Double Top that reversed down to 1302.00-1303.00 support, which was recovered entirely in reaction to the FOMC Minutes. So long as support holds, there remains potential for extending the bounce to 1317.00 before the decline’s last downleg begins.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday held 19.75 support, and then rallied after the close in reaction to the FOMC Minutes. There remains potential up to 20.75, so long as 19.75 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down held 132-28 as support to maintain potential for filling the gap back up to 134-06.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Extending Wednesday through the original 102.35-102.60 target to 103.55, where closing back under 103.25 would jeopardize this leg’s momentum.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs Wednesday suggest a bottom is in, but not that this leg will avoid correction down to 4.22. In any case, there is not currently a signal in-play.

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