Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Crude Oil both proved Tuesday that the recent pullbacks were a head-fake. That’s not a big thing, and there are plentiful examples of the pattern. What will be meaningful is if that also means much bigger moves are coming. There are also plentiful examples of that.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Never having confirmed last week’s breakout, the index hasn’t had any defense from pulling back, which finally culminated in gapping down Tuesday. That also creates an attraction above to fill the gap back Monday’s close, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
If Monday’s bounce wasn’t in-line with last week’s breakout and confirmation that has yet to produce a third lower close, then Tuesday’s gap up was even less so. Closing above 1.3575-1.3760 essentially invalidates the setup’s momentum, especially if not reinstated immediately Wednesday. The alternative isn’t necessarily bullish.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s pullback to 1298.00 support resolved up overnight to fresh highs that at least attacked the 1317.00 potential objective. There was no intraday follow-through, but the bounce’s momentum remains alive.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday helps to confirm the pattern has actually been a wide range supported by 19.75, still having potential to 20.75.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An early dip was recovered to a fresh high above 133-24 that keeps alive potential for filling the outstanding gap back up to 134-06.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s surge pierced the 102.35-102.60 target that prior highs had only attacked to within a dime. The rally’s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending to a fresh high Tuesday doesn’t trigger any higher target, and the pattern could benefit from dipping once more to probe under 4.22.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s wild swing swung back enough to maintain the rally’s momentum. The threat to it cannot be ignored, and the pattern shouldn’t need much time before resuming its rally if that pattern remains valid.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip held “lower prior highs,” so it could still be considered constructive. Another fresh high would still need to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s bounce comes after Thursday and Friday signaled and confirmed momentum reversing down, so it should not gain traction in the opposite direction.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s early dip held the 1298.00 support to try launching another upleg, which should follow, since there has already been a one-day rally in this stage of the pattern. Monday’s test of it was difficult, so there is no reason to further delay a recovery.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday failed a recovery attempt. The open’s gap was filled, but not broken, maintaining potential for resuming and extending the rally.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 132-28 pullback limit wasn’t tested momentarily on the way to extending the bounce Monday, fueled by a flight-to-quality during the stock market weakness, but resisted by 133-28 resistance.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping down and dipping relatively sharply lower Monday was recovered to fill the gap back to Friday’s close. Nevertheless, the balance of the session dipped back down to test 100.00 support. Having neutralized the attraction to Friday’s closing gap, closing under 99.50 would signal momentum has reversed down. The trend otherwise remains up.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip to 4.42 was considered both deep enough and timely enough to resume the rally targeting 4.53. The target was met Monday morning, and reacted back down into the range. There is no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s head-fake bounce on Wednesday was never completely rejected Thursday. But it was rejected to the point of almost reversing momentum down. Anyway, the first shot across the bow isn’t usually followed by a second one. So Friday’s trending — not only in Gold — should extend through Monday morning.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The basket’s weighting prevented extending higher Friday, so Thursday’s breakout has yet to be confirmed.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s fresh low confirms the breakout, with near-term support at 1.3655-1.3660 and targeting 1.3575.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s drop back to its 1285.50 pullback limit launched a bigger rally leg Friday. There is potential to 1317.00 so long as 1298.00 holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Curiously, the initially favorable reaction to the Employment Situation report wasn’t maintained. But closing higher Monday would confirm 20.70 is in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Greeting Friday’s report from closing above 132-06 Thursday made a favorable reaction likelier. But the pullback’s depth makes a favorable reaction only temporary. There is potential up to 133-28 and 134-06 so long as pullbacks now hold 132-28 as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Closing above 99.80 Thursday put into play 101.00, which was probed Friday, signaling new relative highs above 102.35-102.60 in-play.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s weakness to 4.42 should suffice for resuming the near-term rally up to 4.53.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies broke their ongoing consolidations Thursday. Although their directions were appropriate for their patterns, keep in mind there has yet to be confirmation. And there is about to be very high-profile influential news, the Employment Situation report.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s rally triggered a breakout, now needing a consecutive higher close Friday to confirm.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s drop triggered a breakout, now needing a consecutive lower close Friday to confirm.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The corrective bounce never extended higher Thursday, instead dipping back under the 1285.00 pullback limit. Closing back above 1291.00 would trigger a new corrective bounce, still having potential to 1298.00 and 1317.00. Meanwhile, there is risk of resuming the decline, especially in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce was retraced overnight for Thursday to gap down already testing 19.75 as support. The pattern must now launch a bigger bounce with almost no delay, or else risk extending down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce firmed back above 132-06 which doesn’t make an initially favorable reaction to Friday’s news any safer from be reversed. Neither does it offer any immunity from simply reacting down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s bounce recovered 99.80 to begin suggesting momentum is reversing up, needing confirmation above 101.00.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s immediate reaction up from Tuesday’s filled gap wasn’t retraced before Thursday immediately extended the rally, likely to meet 4.53 before indicating whether a bottom has formed, or if the recovery leg will be retraced.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies still ranging, Bonds still falling, and Metals finally rallying. Seems like a whole lot of houses being put in order ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s fresh high was a good start, but needs immediate follow-through Thursday to confirm the rally has resumed. One bullish scenario would suggest there not be too much follow-through Thursday, leaving pent-up buying pressure to react favorably Friday. The other bullish scenario depends upon extending much higher already Thursday, creating room to absorb a negative reaction down Friday without it damaging the chart’s breakout.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Two-three sessions of ineffectual optimism were neutralized by Wednesday’s dip back to prior lows. It’s not yet a breakout, so not extending down immediately Thursday wouldn’t undermine sellers, unless, Thursday were to bounce to fresh highs for the week.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s signs that the decline’s pace was slowing were exploited without delay overnight, surging through the 1285.50 buy signal to attack 1295.00. Being a correction, there are no actual targets but above 1298.00 would have potential to 1317.00. Back under 1285.50 would resume the decline targeting 1249.00 or 1237.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
One week of ranging supported by 19.75 finally resolved up, gapping up Wednesday above 20.00, and targeting 20.70 so long as 19.75 continues holding as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from the rally’s 134-06 target has now extended back to the last upleg’s 131-24 origin. Its 61.8% retracement and room for noise around that both gave way. This may have created a lot of room to absorb an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, unless Thursday’s close were to recover 132-24.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still consolidating its reaction down from attacking the first target at 102.35. Back above 99.80 and 101.00 would resume the rally, launching a new upleg.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday rallied immediately after Tuesday’s drop filled the gap outstanding from its recent low. That’s not usually the one to chase, although this one did well on the day. But more important, the sign of life suggests buying a pullback, or a pullback’s recovery. EIA reports Thursday.

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