Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil spent a long time chipping away at resistance before finally breaking higher recently. And now that resistance is being tested as support. The speed of bouncing from its test as support should be inverse to how long its break as resistance was delayed.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down didn’t extend lower intraday, and neither was it probed Tuesday. All the while, not filling the gap back up to Friday’s close reflects pessimism that continues to suggest sellers aren’t gaining any traction for their efforts.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s narrow range only tested Monday’s shallow high. Not much volatility, but more importantly, no follow-through to Monday’s strength. The ongoing “ineffectual optimism” still suggest resolving down and resuming the decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already being long past the point of forming a durable bottom, even a shallower corrective bounce trigger was avoided Tuesday as price drifted to new lows around 1278.00. Lower prior highs at 1268.50 could trigger a reaction up, but the pattern otherwise is targeting 1249.00 or 1237.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s weakness avoided probing new lows, while still hugging 19.75 support, keeping alive potential for a near-term bounce back up to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Without any immediate strength, Tuesday was unable to rally at all, and Monday’s 132-16 low was retested. Back above 133-04 would trigger a corrective bounce to fill the gap back up to 134-06.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite only attacking the 102.35-102.60 target to within a dime two days earlier, Tuesday’s drop fell back to 100.00 support. Back above 101.00 would signal the rally had resumed, likely to slice through the resistance that was avoided pessimistically, on the way to higher targets above 104.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The failed rally’s retracement extended to its minimum objective of filling the gap back to the recent 4.27 low close. Recovering from probing a fresh low isn’t necessary to form a credible bottom, but I wouldn’t chase an immediate uptick Wednesday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Not that Gold has been under accumulation, but its decline has slowed and gained no further traction. None of which would be bullish, except that Silver is bubbling. At least a corrective bounce should be obvious Tuesday, unless Gold’s decline were to extend down substantially through the morning.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
A little bit of weakness Monday wasn’t enough to undermine the potential for breaking higher noticeably Tuesday. Not decisively rejecting last week’s modest strength, despite starting the new week slightly weaker, suggests that a bigger rally can now begin.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s opening gap up duplicated Friday’s character, which recovered from gapping down. But no traction was gained for either effort, so Tuesday’s open is almost obligated to make clear the decline has resumed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday didn’t dip immediately to fresh lows, only eventually. And the fresh lows didn’t trend down aggressively. Otherwise, nothing was new about the decline, which would now trigger a corrective bounce above 1295.00 targeting to 1298.00 and potentially 1317.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up settled back down to 19.75 support, but no lower, suggesting that a bigger bounce targeting 20.70 is trying to begin.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s open gapped down and extended lower intraday to 132-16. Recovering back above 132-24 — a 61.8% retracement of the rally to Thursday’s test of the 134-06 target — suggests the pullback has ended. Back above 133-06 through Tuesday’s open (already tested Monday afternoon) would target a retest of 134-06 target.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s bobble and Sunday night’s weakness was recovered Monday back up to 102.00, maintaining the rally’s momentum without allowing any sell signal to form.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s opening plunge back to 4.35 retraced all of the follow-through from last week’s gap up, but not the gap up itself. That should be done soon, as the pattern already had undermined its upside momentum.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s target was all but met Friday, while Gold had difficulty extending its otherwise relentless decline, and the long-bond reacted down sharply from its target. I sense a paradigm shift in the air.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming Friday still hasn’t accelerated from the recent consolidation, leaving the pattern vulnerable to retesting its lows. Any initial trending would be credible for extending intraday.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s gap down only touched Thursday’s low before bouncing back above Thursday’s close. The bounce didn’t extend, so there is no change to parameters or opinion.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Yet another lower low greeted Friday, but it was retraced back into Thursday’s range. Not recovering above Thursday’s high — or at least above 1298.00 — prevented even coming to within proximity of the 1317.00 buy signal. It’s not optimal, but immediate strength Monday could be credible for avoiding the much deeper meltdown potential.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging around the 19.75 support Friday while still not extending under it kept alive potential for being attracted back up to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
I had no higher calculable targets than 134-06 which was tested Thursday and held through its close. Apparently, neither did the market, as Friday trended straight down to 133-05. Preferably, the gap back to 134-06 would be filled before a downleg tries getting underway, but there is no active signal currently.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally extended higher Friday, at least initially, to within a dime of the 102.35-102.60 target and touching “higher prior lows.” The balance of the session ranged sideways around Thursday’s high, which could be “ineffectual optimism” if not extended higher without much further delay.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s open immediately extended back down from Thursday’s 4.57 high to Thursday morning’s 4.50 spike high. It held as support, but didn’t launch a recovery. Further delaying a recovery would more likely extend back into the Tuesday-Wednesday 4.56-4.42 range.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil finally broke through its resistance Thursday, but not with any similar action in Gold. They aren’t required to move in tandem, but that would still be likelier at this stage for each.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s firming wasn’t to fresh relative highs, which are still needed to help confirm the recent consolidation intends to break higher.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s break under recent lows has no reason not to extend down into the weekend if the pattern has been bearish as expected.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending down Thursday didn’t even threaten the 1317.00 buy signal. An immediate rejection and reversal up may now be the only path higher, with the alternative being to extend the recent decline even more aggressively.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s test of 19.75 support didn’t extend much lower, and really only consolidated under 19.75, so any initial strength above it Friday would be credible for trending higher intraday to its 20.75 objective.;

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
No pullback limit was even tested before extending through Wednesday’s attack on its 133-22 target to probe above its 134-06 target. There is no higher target in this sequence, but momentum remains pointed up so long as pullbacks now hold 133-28 as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s late break above its longstanding 100.00 resistance extended Thursday to test 101.70. The next higher target at 102.35-102.60 is in-play so long as pullbacks now 100.50 hold as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After Wednesday avoided rejecting Tuesday’s gap up to 4.42, any further delay would have been considered bullish enough to extend higher. Thursday’s open did extend higher to test 4.57, so there is no setup for retesting recent lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Has Gold extended its decline too far, for too long? The recent lows aren’t gaining new traction. Crude Oil is meanwhile trying to break out of a consolidation that has also extended for too long. Rallying in tandem would be credible.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging Wednesday left the pattern intact, but momentum is in need of sudden volatility to pry price loose from its range.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Still in the process of decline, but the current range didn’t break lower Wednesday as price only ranged narrowly.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Drifting lower Wednesday attacked 1300.00, so that now recovering 1317.00 and 1323.00 would signal and confirm a rally underway targeting at least 1342.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The requirement to eventually revisit 20.70 above didn’t prevent Wednesday’s session from extending down to fresh lows attacking 19.75 support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down to 132-22 support was discussed during the Market Tour as having no excuse not to reverse up into negative territory. In fact, the recovery’s 133-22 target was attacked to within 1 tick at the afternoon’s high. Now holding 133-10 as support would allow the rally to extend higher to 134-06, but back under 133-04 would signal momentum reversing back down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Ongoing ranging defined essentially by 99.50-100.00 persisted yet another day Wednesday. Until the end, when a fresh high was probed and maintained through the close. So long as not rejected immediately, a breakout appears to be underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up didn’t extend higher Wednesday, but neither was it rejected, as the session only ranged sideways. Pre-open action had suggested the lows could be retested before extending higher. Wednesday’s action doesn’t change that potential.

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